NFL Draft - 2015

[Luther_Heggs]

Re: NFL Draft - 2015

Still trying to figure out your agenda here, other than the obvious conclusion that you're trolling it up...

Just giving my opinion. I'm a Northern Iowan fan, so it's not like I was insulting Johnson as a person or player. Now I know that if my opinion is an outlier, I should not post. No problem.

[claw]

Re: NFL Draft - 2015

So, if your were a General Manager, you would have to ask yourself is Johnson going to be your "feature" back. If not, how high a draft pick would you go for someone that may average six or fewer carries a game. Of course taking into consideration the talent already existing.

Lynch - pretty much said this year has a 95% chance to be his last season. He is going to be 30 at the start of next year, plays a very physical style, and has averaged about 290 carriers per season his 8 year career. If I'm Seattle I'm looking at the fact I'm a year or two from needing a new feature back. I'm looking at the a head of time rather than a "Oh ****, Lynch retired and I don't have another legitimate option for the season that starts in 4 months"

AP - over 30 already, over 2k career carries (and that's with only 21 last season). Doesn't really want to be in Minneapolis anymore. Asiata has shown he isn't somebody that the Vikings can really lean on too heavily. McKinnon showed some flashes but if he goes down and it's Asiata the Vikings are in trouble.

Charles - will be 29 after this coming season and is going into his 8th year. He's probably got okay longevity because of his style of play but only has 3 years left on his deal. Are you going to want to pay a 32 year old Charels what he'll likely want, or have a guy that's 8 years younger, getting paid a fraction of that contract with a couple years left on it.

McCoy - will be 27 by the time camp opens. 6 years in and already nearly 1,700 touches (1,400+ carries 300 receptions. Just signed a new deal in Buffalo through 2020. Lucky for Philly they went and signed Murray meaning the Cowboys had to snag McFadden who is 7 years in and averaging 3.3 ypc the last 3 seasons.

Gore - will be 32 in a couple weeks and just starting a 3 year deal in Indy. He has 2,500 career carries. Oh, did I mention he has no dead cap space if cut after year 2 in Indy? Even these next 2 years his base salary is $1m even with 3m roster bonus. Oh, his final year on this deal also has a 3.5m base but no roster bonus. Guess who is going to be gone in 2 years and what team is going to need a back with experience to step into that dynamic style of offense next to Andrew Luck?

Bell - only going into year 3 but only 2 years left on his rookie deal (base under 1m each year). You can bet at 25/26 years old, if he continues his productivity, he is going to want a BIG pay day. Is Pitt set up to be able to give him that? I don't know but I can promise you that thought is already in their GMs head. Who is Bell's back up? What happens if he pops his ACL? He was the only RB on the roster with more than 10 carries, and he was second on that team in receptions. You don't think that a quality, cheap, back is being looked at somewhere for the Steelers?

Murray - We'll see how he recovers from that many carries. 27 years old and already almost 1,200 touches. That's a lot of wear on a body that's just 4 seasons in. Philly likely isn't going RB though.


If I'm a GM I see how valuable having guys who can do a little bit of everything are - especially in these newer offenses. It's why a guy like Bell, Forte and McCoy are so important. The not only carry the ball, they catch the ball very well, they are shifty and can avoid big hits that take a toll (pretty much how DJ runs), they are good enough pass blockers to keep on the field in situations when they have too, etc...

If you were my teams GM and you were only looking at drafting a guy based on how he helps my time only this coming season I would want you fired.

[Luther_Heggs]

Re: NFL Draft - 2015

If you were my teams GM and you were only looking at drafting a guy based on how he helps my time only this coming season I would want you fired.

I think Johnson is as good a running back as anyone in this draft. So, I'm sure he will get drafted. I was never saying he would not get drafted. I just said I would not (as a pretend GM). Not because I think Johnson is a lesser player than anyone else. I just think the value of drafting a running back has a lower return value than once was the case. Unless you think he will be your feature back, of course.

As for you pretend firing me. Well, that is fine, I was not happy with your pretend Cleveland Browns, anyway. Don't get me wrong, your pretend firing still stings.

I hope that was a Panther-friendly enough post.

[Codytwo]

Re: NFL Draft - 2015

Has DJ gone in the first round yet?

[SteinPizza]

Re: NFL Draft - 2015

Luther's just taking a page out of Stein's playbook.

David is just a kid from (semi)small-town Iowa who put up big HS numbers against inferior competition and then looked good at UNI because he fit in a system that played to his strengths. No way could a player that ended up at UNI with no major college offers turn into a top-half draft pick.

I think it more likely DJ goes earlier in the draft as teams worry that he won't be around the next time they have a pick than him sliding later. I wouldn't be surprised to see him drafted by a team trading to get the draft slot used on him.

You're taking one of my basketball arguements and trying to translate it to football. Totally different player development, exactness of recruiting, etc. History has shown that non BCS, small college players can make an impact. Skill players, linemen, you name it. Iowa high school football isn't exactly talent rich, but it can/has produced some really good individual players at the highest level. The knock on small school competition is a legit criticism, but like I said, history shows it definitely can be done. Stuff it with the little brother, "woe is me" statements (at least it came across that way).

I don't see DJ going in the second round, but would love to be wrong. I base that on the number of RBs rated above him, not so much on future success. Player projections by scouts and GMs are as inexact as football recruiting in general. In other words, don't get bent out of shape if Ajayi, Robbie Abdullah, or the back from Indiana get picked ahead of him.