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Old 03-07-2007, 12:41 PM   #1
Hime_Peterson
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Default Will you feel sorry for Mo. State if they don't get in?

I've been wrestling with this in my mind and wanted to come on here to see what some Missouri Valley fans think.

Obviously, I want Missouri State to get in as they have a good team, their coach seems to be a nice guy, and they seem to be so close every year, whether making the Tourney Finals or fighting for an at-large.

But I must say, I personally will have a hard-time feeling sorry for them if they don't get in.

Why?

It seems like every single time they have an opportunity to solidify themselves as a "lock," they lay an egg.

Case in point:
1) Last year in St. Louis, playing a UNI team that they were pretty much even with, they got beat by 20. UNI played awesome and was well-prepared, but when you are trying to solidify yourselves, you can't have a no-show on a neutral court.
2) Not guarding anybody in the second half against Winthrop this year on National TV.
3) Choking at the free throw line in a winnable game at home against conference champ SIU in a game that would have solidified their status.
4) Letting Nate Funk go for 33 and losing by 17 against Creighton on Saturday.

It just seems like every time they have an opportunity to lock themselves in, they don't just lose, they lose by double-digits.

I hope like heck they get in, but I can't feel too sorry for them if they don't. What do you guys think?
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Old 03-07-2007, 01:02 PM   #2
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I will feel sorry for them. EVERY team in America loses games that they shouldn't, misses free throws and has a guy go off against them. Why should Missouri State get penalized because they have the same things happen to them that all other teams experience? They're 22-10, the 3rd best team in the 5th best conference in the country...if they can't get in this season with a win over Wisconsin...let's re-name the tournament to the "BCS Invite" and call it a day.

By the way...MSU's RPI went up 2 spots to 36 overnight...not sure how...but it did.
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Old 03-07-2007, 01:05 PM   #3
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True, they have a history of blowing every opportunity to get into the NCAAs since Hinson has been there, but they deserve to finally break through. Especially given the screw job from last year. Plus they deserve to have one more win thanks to the timing error in their loss at SLU. The officials even conceded that they made an error in that game.
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Old 03-07-2007, 01:07 PM   #4
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Positives of MoSt. being snubbed again: More crazy Barry Hinson quotes + video of him and his team crying after the selection show.

Negatives: Barry gets canned...no more funny quotes next year.
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Old 03-07-2007, 01:11 PM   #5
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I won't feel sorry for them one bit. Sorry, but you need to win the games to get in. 2317, you are pretty stuck on their win over Wisconsin -- it was a neutral court win 4 months ago. Just because we beat #6 RPI SIU doesn't mean that we should automatically get into the dance. NC State beat UNC, do they get to dance on that alone? Washington beat UCLA, do they get to the dance on that alone?? (I could go on, and on, and on.) Yes, it is a great win for MSU, but the comittee looks at the entire body of work. IMO they were a much more impressive team last year and got left out, so I dont see why it will be much different if the same thing happens this year. Non-con RPI last year was 5, this year its 41. The body of work is less impressive than before.

Now, my gut tells me they will be getting in. But, again, to answer the question, I won't feel sorry if they don't. Last year was a disgrace, IMO, this year would simply be, "sorry, you didnt do enough".

To correlate this year with last year would be wrong. Especially if we find out that they were "let" in because the comittee "felt bad" about last years' situation. Sorry but last year has absolutely nothing to do with this year. At least it better not. That wouldn't give me too much hope for the current system at all.

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Old 03-07-2007, 01:13 PM   #6
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I will feel sorry for them, but my stronger feeling would be one of anger towards the NCAA if the MVC only gets two teams in. There should be 4 teams from the Valley in the NCAA. It is as good a conference as any in the land and yet everyone on the national media scene is looking for reasons to leave Valley teams out and ignoring the same facts about BCS teams while looking for reasons to put them in.
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Old 03-07-2007, 01:23 PM   #7
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My feelings exactly Gonzo...
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Old 03-07-2007, 02:07 PM   #8
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I will root for them if they get in, but if they don't I've got better things to worry about!
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Old 03-07-2007, 02:23 PM   #9
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Madcat, last year MSU had a 21 RPI and they told them that they didn't have a "marquee" win. So this year, they went out and got one...they beat a team that is currently in the top 5...no matter where or when it happened...it happened and you can't take that away from them. Where you're missing the point...is that MSU had 21 OTHER wins to go along with their win over Wisconsin. UNI only has 17 other wins other than their win over SIU. A team shouldn't get it in because of one win...but when their body of work contains a 'marquee' win, then it should be taken into consideration.

Just like last year when UNI beat LSU on their floor...Panther fans were saying, "we beat LSU". This year MSU fans are talking about their win over Wisconsin. What's wrong with that? Now Valley teams shouldn't be proud of their non-conference wins? They shouldn't hang their hat on those wins? I don't get what you're trying to say? Is the win not impressive? Are you saying that Wisconsin isn't as good as their ranking? They played the game head-2-head and MSU won. I'm sure everytime they talk about MSU, they will say, "Good wins...Wisconsin".
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Old 03-07-2007, 03:18 PM   #10
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What would really be a crime is if Drexel doesn't get in.
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Old 03-07-2007, 03:21 PM   #11
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They should be in, I really think they should. If WSU hadn't been so hot early, MSU would've been the early "story" of the MVC/non-bcs world, in which case their only concern would be seeding.
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Old 03-07-2007, 03:40 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UNI MadCat View Post
Just because we beat #6 RPI SIU doesn't mean that we should automatically get into the dance.
If we had won 22 games like mo state has then you better believe we should get in.
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Old 03-07-2007, 03:45 PM   #13
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If we had won 22 games like mo state has then you better believe we should get in.
We probably WOULD, actually. We'd be a LOCK with 22 wins.

Why? Because we're a name people are used to seeing on the board. There will be people who couldn't find us on a map, wondering where we are when they're filling out their brackets. Familiarity breeds respect.

Being the team that's always 66th? That breeds something else.
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Old 03-07-2007, 03:49 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by panther2317 View Post
Madcat, last year MSU had a 21 RPI and they told them that they didn't have a "marquee" win. So this year, they went out and got one...they beat a team that is currently in the top 5...no matter where or when it happened...it happened and you can't take that away from them. Where you're missing the point...is that MSU had 21 OTHER wins to go along with their win over Wisconsin. UNI only has 17 other wins other than their win over SIU. A team shouldn't get it in because of one win...but when their body of work contains a 'marquee' win, then it should be taken into consideration.

Just like last year when UNI beat LSU on their floor...Panther fans were saying, "we beat LSU". This year MSU fans are talking about their win over Wisconsin. What's wrong with that? Now Valley teams shouldn't be proud of their non-conference wins? They shouldn't hang their hat on those wins? I don't get what you're trying to say? Is the win not impressive? Are you saying that Wisconsin isn't as good as their ranking? They played the game head-2-head and MSU won. I'm sure everytime they talk about MSU, they will say, "Good wins...Wisconsin".
2317 -- Who is "taking the win away from them"?? Look, we understand your lovefest with them, being a (former?) MSU employee. I get it. But while you point out what I "missed" you also fail to point out that the difference between an RPI of 21 and an RPI of 38 is a PRETTY BIG difference. If they had an RPI of 21 AND beat Wisconsin then yes, they would be a 100%, no doubt about it, lock them into a 7 seed or higher LOCK for the tourney. But they aren't. Their RPI is 38 -- again, that is a LOT different!!! Why is this so difficult??

They should hang their hat on the UW win and they are (and if they weren't, I'm sure you'd carry the torch as you remind us about it constantly). Yes they were told to "go out and get a marquee win" and they did that. But they also did things they didnt do last year like -- lose 10 games (8 last year), lost more at home (4 times compared to 2), lost to a team outside of the top 100 (last year none) and again, finishing with an RPI ~15 spots higher.

And really, we shouldn't be comparing this year to last year. They really aren't the same. Missouri State in 2006 is Missouri State in 2006 and MSU in 2007 is MSU in 2007. There should be no comparisons. I hate it. I think its ridiculous. I don't think they should be getting more or less attention for what they've done based on last year's travesty. It shouldn't be any different than any other Valley school that finishes around the 38 RPI-mark. They are on the bubble, regardless of what the name on the jersey says and what happened previously.

I supplied my answer to the question and my reasoning. I don't have any personal affection for MSU. I just don't. Simple as that. I think it allows me to A) care a lot less and B) look a little bit more objectively and realize that if they don't make the tournament its not because the comittee has a personal vendetta against them but because they simply didn't have the resume. Again, my gut tells me they will get in. All I'm saying is that I won't be surprised if they don't and, in the end, I dont think it has one bit to do with the fact that they are MSU. If they don't make the tourney and I hear one person say, "what more was MSU supposed to do" I'll . What more should they have done? Try winning at Evansville (something even WE did). Try winning at home vs. Winthrop. Try beating UNI at home. It's not that tough. I don't know what more you want me to say and, probably, I've said too much already.
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Old 03-07-2007, 03:59 PM   #15
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We probably WOULD, actually. We'd be a LOCK with 22 wins..
you know we were really pretty close to 22 wins (I am being serious). I mean we win that one at SIU and this whole season is different. We scored hundreds of points this year but really the whole season comes down to those 2 points.


I digress, hard to feel sorry for mo state since they gave alford his start.

but really they should get in they earned it with 22 wins.
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Old 03-07-2007, 04:02 PM   #16
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Try beating UNI at home. It's not that tough. .
whoa easy there shooter
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Old 03-07-2007, 04:03 PM   #17
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Can you go back and do some research for me and show me the last team with 22 wins and a top 40 RPI to not make the NCAA Tournament? If they were Duke with MSU's resume...they'd be a lock. The only reason they're not is because of their conference affiliation.

Also, I don't have a "lovefest". I just spent 3 pretty great years working for SMS in Springfield and still follow their successes and failures pretty closely. But I can assure you...there's not a school I like to beat more than MSU!
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Old 03-07-2007, 04:37 PM   #18
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whoa easy there shooter
You misread it (or, more appropriately, I should have stated it better). I didnt mean that beating us is easy, I meant that its not tough to find games on MSU's schedule where, had they won, their status would be a little more secure.
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Old 03-07-2007, 04:39 PM   #19
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Can you go back and do some research for me and show me the last team with 22 wins and a top 40 RPI to not make the NCAA Tournament? If they were Duke with MSU's resume...they'd be a lock. The only reason they're not is because of their conference affiliation.

Also, I don't have a "lovefest". I just spent 3 pretty great years working for SMS in Springfield and still follow their successes and failures pretty closely. But I can assure you...there's not a school I like to beat more than MSU!
Fair enough, fair enough. And you are right, if it was Duke (or Syracuse) this wouldn't be an issue. I just think we will all, unfortunately, know why if they don't make it in - a couple more wins to get the RPI down would have done it. BUT, they WILL make it, making our convo moot!!
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Old 03-07-2007, 04:47 PM   #20
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Quote:
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Can you go back and do some research for me and show me the last team with 22 wins and a top 40 RPI to not make the NCAA Tournament? If they were Duke with MSU's resume...they'd be a lock. The only reason they're not is because of their conference affiliation.
By the way... to answer your specific question, I think its only fair to say that MSU has 21 wins (win over Lincoln does not count). It has happened three other times and, no surprise, not to a BCS school.

2006 - Hofstra was 24-6 with an RPI of 30. (conf RPI: 10)

2003 -- UNLV was 21-10 with an RPI of 40 (conf RPI: 6)

and... que the drum roll and hit the irony button

2000 -- this team was 22-10 with an RPI of 34... that team... Southwest Missouri State... maybe there is a conspiracy (conf RPI: 11)

So yeah, it sucks but there is a precedent for it.
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Old 03-07-2007, 04:48 PM   #21
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I'll do the research for you: Here are the year by year teams who have been left out of the NCAA's that have 22 wins and an RPI in the Top 40.

2005-2006:
SCHOOL (RPI)
Hofstra 24-6 (21)
2004-2005:
0teams left out with 22 wins and Top 40 RPI
2003-2004:
0teams left out with 22 wins and Top 40 RPI
2002-2003:
0teams left out with 22 wins and Top 40 RPI
2001-2002:
0teams left out with 22 wins and Top 40 RPI
2000-2001:
0teams left out with 22 wins and Top 40 RPI
1999-2000:
Missouri State (34)
1998-1999:
0teams left our with 22 wins and Top 40 RPI

So, in the last 8 NCAA Tournaments, only 2 teams that had 22 wins and a Top 40 RPI have been left out of the tournament. Hofstra and Missouri State.

Going even further, there have schools who have received at-large bids with 22 wins and under and an RPI over 40 in the last 8 years.

SCHOOL (RPI)
2005-2006:
Kentucky 21-12 (41)
Texas A&M 21-8 (44)
Arkansas 22-9 (45)
Utah State 22-8 (46)
Air Force 22-6 (49)
NC State 21-9 (51)
Alabama 17-12 (56)
California 20-10 (57)
Seton Hall 18-11 (58)
2004-2005:
Texas 19-10 (41)
Iowa 21-11 (42)
UAB 21-10 (49)
Iowa State 18-11 (63)
NC State 19-13 (65)
2003-2004:
Arizona 20-9 (41)
South Carolina 23-10 (45)
UTEP 22-7 (46)
Richmond 20-12 (47)
Washington 19-11 (60)
Air Force 22-6 (70)
2002-2003:
Gonzaga 23-8 (43)
Colorado 20-11 (46)
Indiana 20-12 (47)
NC State 18-12 (53)
2001-2002:
Mississippi State 19-10 (44)
SIU 26-7 (50)
Pepperdine 21-8 (51)
Missouri 21-11 (52)
Wisconsin 17-12 (54)
Wyoming 20-8 (64)
2000-2001:
Arkansas 20-10 (41)
Georgetown 23-7 (42)
Xavier 21-7 (44)
Missouri 18-12 (47)
Oklahoma St. 19-9 (49)
1999-2000:
North Carolina 18-13 (41)
Dayton 22-8 (43)
Indiana State 22-9 (47)
Seton Hall 20-9 (48)
Utah 20-8 (50)
UNLV 23-7 (51)
Pepperdine 24-8 (52)
1998-1999:
Evansville 21-9 (44)
Texas 19-12 (45)
UAB 20-11 (48)
Oklahoma 19-10 (49)
Mississippi 16-12 (51)
Oklahoma St. 21-10 (53)

So...the only time 38 has been a "pretty big difference" from 21 is last year and in the 1999-2000 season when Hofstra and Missouri State are the only two teams with 22 wins and an RPI in the Top 40 to get left out of the NCAA's. In many of those years you can find schools with a far worse record and RPI who got in as an at-large. For the most part...22 wins and Top 40 RPI is a 'lock' in the NCAA's...except if you're Hofstra or Missouri State.
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Old 03-07-2007, 05:21 PM   #22
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Be careful 23, correlation does not equal causality.
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Old 03-07-2007, 06:33 PM   #23
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The reality is that we want MSU in the NCAA. They take an NIT spot if they fall out. Four MVC teams in the NCAA helps our cause.
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Old 03-07-2007, 07:33 PM   #24
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I could be wrong, but in the past teams played less games. I thought that in the last couple of years teams were allowed to play more games, not exactly sure how many. But say for instance 5 years ago teams could only play 30 games and now they can play 33 then 22 wins looks different if you do it in less games. I hope that makes sense, it's something I thought of as I was looking at the brief history report. The non-bcs conferences get hosed every year because they aren't over exposed. Perfect example; you have 2 conference championship games being played tonight, yet ESPN is showing first round games of the Big East and relegating the non-bce championship games to ESPN 2. That just shows why smaller conferences get hosed.

Now as far as msu not getting in..... I'll be sad because they are from the mvc. The more exposure for the conference the better. Helps recruiting for everybody if the mvc has a good showing.
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Old 03-07-2007, 07:47 PM   #25
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Missouri State has 22 D1 wins in the Selection Committee's eyes, b/c they view the SLU game as a win (due to clock malfunction).
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Old 03-07-2007, 08:07 PM   #26
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I would feel bad for the Bears. Theyre a solid team and I think they deserve to get in.
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Old 03-07-2007, 09:36 PM   #27
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I would feel bad for US if they don't get in because they could take our spot in the NIT if they don't make it. Trust me I'll be cheering for them to get in, for two reasons only 1) If MSU gets in we still have a good shot at NIT 2.) They are a Valley Team.
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Old 03-08-2007, 12:30 AM   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UNIAlum95 View Post
The reality is that we want MSU in the NCAA. They take an NIT spot if they fall out. Four MVC teams in the NCAA helps our cause.
MSU gets in NCAA....UNI gets in NIT

MSU gets in NIT......UNI stays home

SIMPLE
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Old 03-08-2007, 08:09 AM   #29
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What if....
MSU/BU don't get in, the NIT feels like they should make it right and put 3 Valley teams into the NIT?
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Old 03-08-2007, 09:21 AM   #30
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What if....
MSU/BU don't get in, the NIT feels like they should make it right and put 3 Valley teams into the NIT?
not enough room this year with new format
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Old 03-08-2007, 09:24 AM   #31
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MSU gets in NCAA....UNI gets in NIT

MSU gets in NIT......UNI stays home

SIMPLE
I'm not sure its that simple on the first part, we could be bumped by some guarantee teams (SWAC, MEAC, ...)

Second part I think is true if they get left out of the Dance again and not bumped out.
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Old 03-08-2007, 03:25 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by Coachdags View Post
not enough room this year with new format
Why is that? We are still talking about 2 teams that are in the top 80 RPI. At-larges will be selected from the same group that will be given NIT at-larges. Is there anything you have read that says they won't allow more than 2 teams from a single conference? (honest question)
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Old 03-08-2007, 03:40 PM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Panthers to the Bone View Post
Why is that? We are still talking about 2 teams that are in the top 80 RPI. At-larges will be selected from the same group that will be given NIT at-larges. Is there anything you have read that says they won't allow more than 2 teams from a single conference? (honest question)
No nothing is in the formula, but In visiting with both Mac and Jake, they feel that the Valley will only get possibly 5 Total hopefully 3 NCAA and 2 NIT.

It could happen the other way 2 NCAA and 3 NIT but they feel doubt full. It will all depend on auto quailifiers and what is left to the committee to decide, I would not feel safe betting on 3 MVC teams in the NIT.
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Old 03-08-2007, 04:06 PM   #34
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I agree. I feel safer with 3 in the Big Dance. I just didn't know if there was a change to the criteria that I didn't see/hear about. Thanks for clearing that up!
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Old 03-08-2007, 04:07 PM   #35
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I think that MSU is going to get in. I think that they are Lunardi's "Last Minute Surprise"...

That puts us #2 in Valley pecking order in the NIT, which is a pretty good place to be...
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