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  • #76
    Originally posted by Mudrafan View Post

    What you are talking about has no relevance to what we were even discussing. Maybe you’ve been quarantining too long. I’d suggest getting out more and living life. About 85% of what’s been published about this thing (or more) is completely and totally way overblown. Heavy political bs and most wanting to stay in forever would quarantine for the common cold if given the chance
    Yes it has!!! #FACTS

    Comment


    • #77
      Originally posted by CaliPanther View Post

      Yes it has!!! #FACTS
      Facts are, 1/3 to 1/2 of the 80k come from nursing homes, packing plants and similar scenarios. Take in pre-existing conditions and the number is no more daunting than other risks we have as humans every day your head rises off the pillow. And we don’t hide in the closet for those risks yet although nancy and her home rainbow ice cream making machine are busy working on it I’m sure. There are way more risks staying in now than living life and getting the economy going. Reaching herd immunity is the real way to snuff out the virus. That and living and practicing the habits that we should have been practicing all along

      Comment


      • #78
        Originally posted by Mudrafan View Post

        Facts are, 1/3 to 1/2 of the 80k come from nursing homes, packing plants and similar scenarios. Take in pre-existing conditions and the number is no more daunting than other risks we have as humans every day your head rises off the pillow. And we don’t hide in the closet for those risks yet although nancy and her home rainbow ice cream making machine are busy working on it I’m sure. There are way more risks staying in now than living life and getting the economy going. Reaching herd immunity is the real way to snuff out the virus. That and living and practicing the habits that we should have been practicing all along
        It is one thing to speak at the policy level, but another on the personal level. My wife is ultra-vulnerable. Granted, it is mostly on me to be careful. However, the pace at which everything is opening up seems to increase our risk. I don't think policy should be shaped around our needs, but the policy you espouse will greatly increase the odds that my wife dies because I got exposed to the virus at a tailgate, football game, or any number of other normal things to do. That is what I think about every morning when my head rises off my pillow! I don't like where this is going in terms of implications for us. Thus, I have trouble imagining that I will go to games this fall.

        Comment


        • #79
          Originally posted by Mudrafan View Post

          Facts are, 1/3 to 1/2 of the 80k come from nursing homes, packing plants and similar scenarios.
          By similar scenarios you mean environments where human contact is constant and inevitable, right? Schools, workplaces, restaurants, bars, public transportation, etc? The fact is we're at a 6% mortality rate in the U.S. despite social distancing measures being implemented and (mostly) followed for the last ~2 months. You can make assumptions about who is and isn't "safe" from the virus but we don't have the data to clearly say that these public places are safe.

          In the state of New York COVID-19 has killed more people than the flu in every age demographic over the age of 14 (counting by 10 years, 15-24, 25-34, etc...), and I'm sure if every state had as detailed and comprehensive numbers as NY we'd see a similar trend. Yes, those with under-lying conditions are most as risk but this virus can infect and kill anyone under the right circumstances. Even if the mortality rate within younger demographics is only a fraction of what we're seeing overall, I can't imagine how devastating it would be to my school of 700+ students to lose 0.5-1% of our student body. No one in their right mind should be willing to lose that many lives for a return to "normalcy".

          As far as "herd immunity", I think you're misunderstanding how complicated it can be. We have herd immunity to diseases like "chickenpox" thanks to vaccines and a LOT of time to let our populations gain immunity naturally. We thought we had eradicated Measles around 2000, but then just over a decade later we see outbreaks across the country because a number of families and individuals stopped vaccinating. Depending on the disease you likely need anywhere from 75-90% of a population to be immune to achieve this. We don't know everything about COVID-19 but I think we can all say with reasonable certainty that we aren't anywhere close to that %. It's not even clear if recovering from the virus makes you immune from getting it again. Without a vaccination it's very unlikely that the US population of 330M+ develops herd immunity, so unfortunately please, please, PLEASE continue to be responsible and patient.

          We're all in this together!
          Last edited by panther-state; 05-13-2020, 12:46 PM.

          Comment


          • #80
            Originally posted by panther-state View Post

            By similar scenarios you mean environments where human contact is constant and inevitable, right? Schools, workplaces, restaurants, bars, public transportation, etc? The fact is we're at a 6% mortality rate in the U.S. despite social distancing measures being implemented and (mostly) followed for the last ~2 months. You can make assumptions about who is and isn't "safe" from the virus but we don't have the data to clearly say that these public places are safe.
            NCAA President Mark Emmert, last Friday in a video Q-and-A:

            "If you don't have students on campus, you don't have student-athletes on campus," Emmert said. "That doesn't mean (the school) has to be up and running in the full normal model, but you have to treat the health and well-being of the athletes at least as much as the regular students."

            and

            "If a school doesn't reopen, then they're not going to be playing sports," the NCAA's Emmert says. "It's really that simple."


            Source:
            https://wcfcourier.com/sports/colleg...def639764.html

            FWIW, the Cal State system - the largest four-year university system in the country - announced yesterday that they will not be returning to on-campus instruction in the fall.
            "Well, that escalated quickly."

            Comment


            • #81
              Originally posted by panther-state View Post

              By similar scenarios you mean environments where human contact is constant and inevitable, right? Schools, workplaces, restaurants, bars, public transportation, etc? The fact is we're at a 6% mortality rate in the U.S. despite social distancing measures being implemented and (mostly) followed for the last ~2 months. You can make assumptions about who is and isn't "safe" from the virus but we don't have the data to clearly say that these public places are safe.

              In the state of New York COVID-19 has killed more people than the flu in every age demographic over the age of 14 (counting by 10 years, 15-24, 25-34, etc...), and I'm sure if every state had as detailed and comprehensive numbers as NY we'd see a similar trend. Yes, those with under-lying conditions are most as risk but this virus can infect and kill anyone under the right circumstances. Even if the mortality rate within younger demographics is only a fraction of what we're seeing overall, I can't imagine how devastating it would be to my school of 700+ students to lose 0.5-1% of our student body. No one in their right mind should be willing to lose that many lives for a return to "normalcy".

              As far as "herd immunity", I think you're misunderstanding how complicated it can be. We have herd immunity to diseases like "chickenpox" thanks to vaccines and a LOT of time to let our populations gain immunity naturally. We thought we had eradicated Measles around 2000, but then just over a decade later we see outbreaks across the country because a number of families and individuals stopped vaccinating. Depending on the disease you likely need anywhere from 75-90% of a population to be immune to achieve this. We don't know everything about COVID-19 but I think we can all say with reasonable certainty that we aren't anywhere close to that %. It's not even clear if recovering from the virus makes you immune from getting it again. Without a vaccination it's very unlikely that the US population of 330M+ develops herd immunity, so unfortunately please, please, PLEASE continue to be responsible and patient.

              We're all in this together!
              Your 6% mortality rate is way high. The only people throwing that figure around are the same groups using fear as a political tactic to extend the economic shutdowns. From things I’ve read, the actual number of US cases is somewhere between 10x and 100x the actual positive tests. Doing that math the actual death rate is somewhere around .05 to .5%. Big range, sure, but a hell of a lot less than 6.

              Bottom line, the shutdowns cannot continue. Reopening may be gradual, with some minor added new norms like masks, using equipment to check temps before entrance to any decent sized public place or workplace, etc. But, a return to a far more economically normal time has to happen, vaccine or not.

              Comment


              • #82
                I simply took the # of reported deaths (84,700) divided the # of cases (~1.4M) that the CDC currently has for 5/13. I understand the mistrust in government sponsored agencies but I highly doubt they're over reporting deaths and cases right now.

                Comment


                • #83
                  Originally posted by panther-state View Post

                  By similar scenarios you mean environments where human contact is constant and inevitable, right? Schools, workplaces, restaurants, bars, public transportation, etc? The fact is we're at a 6% mortality rate in the U.S. despite social distancing measures being implemented and (mostly) followed for the last ~2 months.
                  This is a joke, right? Because if not, you are extremely full of sh!t. .06% is close; 6% is a flat out fabrication and lie. Stop lying. 6% mortality...good lord.

                  Comment


                  • #84
                    Originally posted by panther1 View Post

                    This is a joke, right? Because if not, you are extremely full of sh!t. .06% is close; 6% is a flat out fabrication and lie. Stop lying. 6% mortality...good lord.
                    Depends which methodology and terminology you are using for your "mortality rate".

                    If 1.4 million is the number of confirmed cases, and there are 84,700 deaths from the virus, then that is in fact a 6.05% “case fatality rate”

                    There are, in fact, two kinds of fatality rate. The first is the proportion of people who die who have tested positive for the disease. This is called the “case fatality rate”. The second kind is the proportion of people who die after having the infection overall; as many of these will never be picked up, this figure has to be an estimate. This is the “infection fatality rate”.

                    To see what a difference this makes, consider 100 people who have been infected with Covid-19. Ten of them have it so severely that they go into hospital, where they test positive for Covid-19. The other 90 are not tested at all. One of the hospital patients then dies from the virus. The other 99 people survive.
                    That would give a case fatality rate of one in 10, or 10%. But the infection fatality rate would be just one in 100, or 1%.

                    So if some countries only test patients ill enough to go to hospital – and don’t test the less-ill (or even asymptomatic) Covid-19 patients who don’t get to hospital (which is what the UK is currently doing) – the death rate can appear higher than in countries where testing is widespread (such as Germany or South Korea).
                    (source: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...y-rates-differ)

                    Comment


                    • #85
                      Considering how slow our response to implementing widespread testing, we'll likely never have an accurate mortality rate to this point. Countries who were able to efficiently test the majority of their populations and catch mild cases of the virus have much lower mortality rates (S. Korea for example is currently ~2.5%).

                      6% may be inflated due to the US only testing those who have been the most sick, but we can't safely assume that 10-100x the amount of positive cases have occurred and been missed = we're safe and need to just take the plunge. You can be reinfected after recovery.

                      Stein is right, when we "reopen" many of these precautions (masks, regular sanitation, reduced crowds/capacity, etc) will still need to take place. My fear is that too many people will foolishly/selfishly resort to old habits and assist in bringing about a "2nd wave".

                      Comment


                      • #86
                        Originally posted by panther-state View Post
                        Considering how slow our response to implementing widespread testing, we'll likely never have an accurate mortality rate to this point. Countries who were able to efficiently test the majority of their populations and catch mild cases of the virus have much lower mortality rates (S. Korea for example is currently ~2.5%).

                        6% may be inflated due to the US only testing those who have been the most sick, but we can't safely assume that 10-100x the amount of positive cases have occurred and been missed = we're safe and need to just take the plunge. You can be reinfected after recovery.

                        Stein is right, when we "reopen" many of these precautions (masks, regular sanitation, reduced crowds/capacity, etc) will still need to take place. My fear is that too many people will foolishly/selfishly resort to old habits and assist in bringing about a "2nd wave".
                        You can be reinfected after recovery?

                        Where'd u get that?

                        During the Senate hearing this week the discussion was that while there's no conclusive evidence of immunity yet...for most viruses including others similar to COVID...that immunity in at least the 12-24 month range is common.

                        They landed on immunity is more likely than not...but not confirmed yet. That was Fauci in that conversation.

                        And a 6% cfr is not an accurate indicator of risk.

                        Infection fatality rate (deaths / all infections) is likely below 0.5%. Might even be 0.1%. Not known yet...but all evidence says below 1%.

                        Never seen an issue so hard to get a handle on. The intersection on science, economics and particularly politics has made this incredibly hard to understand.

                        I have my own theories. I'm sure others do. But staying closed up is not an option from my view. Not for a disease with a 0.1-0.5% IFR. It will be catastrophic for this generation and the next.
                        ​​​​​​
                        Last edited by Blue42; 05-14-2020, 10:07 AM.
                        Winning is more fun than losing.

                        Comment


                        • #87
                          Originally posted by Blue42 View Post

                          You can be reinfected after recovery?

                          Where'd u get that?

                          During the Senate hearing this week the discussion was that while there's no conclusive evidence of immunity yet...for most viruses including others similar to COVID...that immunity in at least the 12-24 month range is common.

                          They landed on immunity is more likely than not...but not confirmed yet. That was Fauci in that conversation.

                          And a 6% cfr is not an accurate indicator of risk.

                          Infection fatality rate (deaths / all infections) is likely below 0.5%. Might even be 0.1%. Not known yet...but all evidence says below 1%.

                          Never seen an issue so hard to get a handle on. The intersection on science, economics and particularly politics has made this incredibly hard to understand.

                          I have my own theories. I'm sure others do. But staying closed up is not an option from my view. Not for a disease with a 0.1-0.5% IFR. It will be catastrophic for this generation and the next.
                          ​​​​​​
                          Agreed. One of the things that makes this so confounding IS the low death rate. Think about it...if this was Ebola, Bubonic Plague, etc., then it would just kill almost everyone who was infected until it ran out of steam (or hosts). That’s what happens to those unfortunate villages in Africa. Seems like Ebola just pops up every other year or so, then disappears after killing a few hundred/thousand people.

                          Covid death rate is way low by comparison, with LOTS of people walking around asymptotic. It’s dangerous enough to be a political football, but not dangerous enough wipe out half the population or some crazy number like that (Google Bubonic Plague for that). In that regard, it’s the perfect thing to cause chaos in society.

                          Comment


                          • #88
                            If you don’t play this year what changes in 2021 so that you do play?

                            if the answer is a vaccine my question is what if there never is one? Are you suggesting the end of all organized sports forever?

                            Comment


                            • #89
                              Originally posted by run&blade View Post
                              If you don’t play this year what changes in 2021 so that you do play?
                              if the answer is a vaccine my question is what if there never is one? Are you suggesting the end of all organized sports forever?
                              None of these are certain, but the following things could (in some cases, should) improve over the next year.
                              1. Herd Immunity
                              2. Better treatments for infected patients.
                              3. Better testing and tracing and control of the spread
                              4. The virus mutates into a weaker form or burns out naturally.



                              Comment


                              • #90
                                Back on topic; there is a very good chance of no college sports for next school year..

                                Comment

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