Some guessing, history, stats, roster changes, rule changes, and coaching changes. Boom a season projection. So, follow the science.
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Originally posted by BrockLesnar View PostLindy's Sports has us 6th and not ranked pre-season in the MVC. Good Lord, they picked us 7th last season.
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Originally posted by uni1988 View Post5th, 6th or 7th… not much difference. I remember the days when UNI would be picked to win the conference
almost every year. I miss those days…
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Originally posted by vbfan19 View Postin the days when the conference was 3rd or 4th best in I-AA, as opposed to the undisputed toughest in the subdivision by far
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You might want to look up the H-H between us and SDSU
You might want to look up average finish in the conference between us and SDSU.
Outside of the spring season (where UNI had over a third of the roster sitting out/missing/NFL draft including 5 All Americans) and 2017 (IIRC) the two programs are essentially 100% identical with one notable exception which plays a massive part in perception (local and national) and it's a something mentioned here a TON
OOC.
I've done the breakdown elsewhere (and maybe here) in the past but the reason SDSU is always ranked higher, gets the benefit of the doubt, and will get a seed despite finishing equal with/behind UNI most every year, is OOC record. What plays into the OOC record? The dumbass scheduling our program/AD has put us through going back to Dannen.
SDSU plays 2 buy games at home and then an FBS games. They aren't setting H/H with Montana, EWU, Sac State, Weber State, then sending their programs to Iowa or Iowa State every single year. They are playing Arkansas Pine Bluff, Drake (A LOT), Duquesne, etc. type programs OOC and then FBS programs like Kansas, Colorado State, etc. with an occasional Iowa (like this year). Not an Iowa or Iowa State very single year and then once every 10 or 15 years an Air Force or Hawaii. I know I've posted it here before but of our last 32ish FBS games something like 26 of them have been Iowa or Iowa State - 1 Hawaii (14), 1 Wisconsin (12), 1 BYU (08), 1 Oklahoma State (00 IIRC), 1 Ball State (02 IIRC), 1 Boise State - with Air Force (22) and Hawaii again (124) on the books again in the next 3 years.
Turns out starting 3-0, or 2-1 at worst, and doing so without having to stress your starters the entire game 2000 miles from home compared to 1-2 or 2-1 in best case scerios makes a MASSIVE difference.
The difference in total record the last 8-10 years is entirely made up because of OOC differences. They get to go 6-2 in Valley play but finish 9-2 or 8-3 overall. Then they are a Valley program that went 8-3 or 9-2 and get rewarded for that come playoffs with a seed, which gives them rest, a home game off of the rest, and that second game is almost always a weak team. That means even if they go 1-1 in the playoffs (like UNI) they are a quarter finals team. They go 2-1 and they are a semifinalist, which they've done a lot. UNI has gone 2-1 a few times but that gets us "lucked into a quarter finals) with 9 total wins and SDSU 11 wins and a semis. Which builds reputation and then hype going into the next season which starts you ranked higher, makes you harder to drop in the rankings if you lose, and repeat.
The fact it's UNI that has the rep for choking in the playoffs, and SDSU has escaped it completely the last 10 years, is absolutely insane. HOWEVER, it makes sense they are avoiding that national reputation because they are still finishing in the quarters or later every single year, picking up 10-11+ wins every single season and it's all set up before the season even starts simply by not ****ing up their schedule with thinking we need to play a top tier FBS program and then two top 15 ranked teams with at least one of them on the road.
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Does Farley have a say in scheduling? If so, he would have to see how schools like SDSU are using the easier OOC games to their advantage to get the first round bye. In the meantime, scheduling the harder games, while looking good on the resume, hurts UNI (if they lose those games) by participating in the waiting game at the end of the season to see if they make the bracket, or UNI having to treat the last 4-6 games of the regular season as pre-playoff games to get a chance to get into the playoffs (need to win each week to get in).
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Originally posted by havok58 View PostDoes Farley have a say in scheduling? If so, he would have to see how schools like SDSU are using the easier OOC games to their advantage to get the first round bye. In the meantime, scheduling the harder games, while looking good on the resume, hurts UNI (if they lose those games) by participating in the waiting game at the end of the season to see if they make the bracket, or UNI having to treat the last 4-6 games of the regular season as pre-playoff games to get a chance to get into the playoffs (need to win each week to get in).
There's a reason SDSU, NDSU, Montana, Montana State, SHSU, etc. don't play 2 ranked teams OOC and then an FBS. It's ****ing stupid. They don't have too. The conference (in the case of SDSU, NDSU, UM and MSU) carry them so ****ing much it would be dumb to put yourself through 2 more ranked and an FBS on top of playing 6 or 7 ranked/ORV teams in conference play.
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