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How high can we finish?

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  • How high can we finish?

    We're now two games out of 2nd place with 7 to play. The path all the way there isn't terrible and we win any Strength of Schedule tiebreaker.

    SIU, Evansville, IlSU and InSU are all 7-4. Missouri State is 6-5.

    SIU (split with us) Two toughest games are a back to back road trip at Evansville and Illinois State.

    Evansville (W, @UE 2/27) Easiest remaining schedule. Two toughest games are at home against Illinois State and us.

    Illinois State (L, @UNI 2/20) Most difficult remaining schedule. WSU x2, at Evansvlle, at UNI

    Indiana State (L, @UNI 2/24) Still have WSU at home, at Ill St, at UNI

    Missouri State (L, @UNI 2/10) Still have road games at WSU, at UNI, at Evansville, at SIU

    If we can go 5-2, which is totally realistic, getting into a giant tie for 2nd or 3rd is not out of the question.
    #MACtion

  • #2
    Re: How high can we finish?

    Originally posted by BCPanther View Post
    We're now two games out of 2nd place with 7 to play. The path all the way there isn't terrible and we win any Strength of Schedule tiebreaker.

    SIU, Evansville, IlSU and InSU are all 7-4. Missouri State is 6-5.

    SIU (split with us) Two toughest games are a back to back road trip at Evansville and Illinois State.

    Evansville (W, @UE 2/27) Easiest remaining schedule. Two toughest games are at home against Illinois State and us.

    Illinois State (L, @UNI 2/20) Most difficult remaining schedule. WSU x2, at Evansvlle, at UNI

    Indiana State (L, @UNI 2/24) Still have WSU at home, at Ill St, at UNI

    Missouri State (L, @UNI 2/10) Still have road games at WSU, at UNI, at Evansville, at SIU

    If we can go 5-2, which is totally realistic, getting into a giant tie for 2nd or 3rd is not out of the question.
    certainly can't fault your optimism. we have in my opinion two sure losses left at Wichita and at Evansville. I think we would have to win the rest and hope. We are playing better basketball no doubt, I think a true test will be seeing if this team is capable of taking care of business this Saturday at Drake. I'm not talking about a 5 point win after a couple of free throws down the stretch. I'm talking any person wearing blue Saturday heading back to the ghetto at halftime taking care of business.
    Illinois State Fan at a St. Louis White Castle 3:45AM Saturday March 6th:

    "White Castle?" "more like Black Castle..."

    You stay classy Redbirds.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: How high can we finish?

      I'd say 6th is the highest we can finish, way too many stupid losses and we showed again last night in the second half we are still perfectly willing to run one of the most pathetic offenses in college basketball. If we go back to that and don't shoot 45% plus on 3 pointers we can lose to anyone.

      And Jeg, you really believe all those Drake blue hair fans live in the ghetto? I'll be very happy with a 5 point win, or even 1 point.
      GO PANTHERS!

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: How high can we finish?

        Making 3rd place at Arch Madness to equal NIT at 21-13 is possible. I would say we'll end up with a semi final loss at St. Louis (19-14) and don't make the NIT. We don't pass enough to get easier looks vs man to man or zone defense. We are too slow in half court offense. We don't press enough to create turnovers or at least delay the opponent from their half court offense. We don't 2-3/1-3-1 zone enough to cut down on fouls.
        Last edited by Panther100; 02-04-2016, 04:05 PM.

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        • #5
          Re: How high can we finish?

          If we would have taken care of business early we would be almost a lock for the 2nd spot in St. Louis. Luckily the way things are set up now it is not unrealistic to think that we could get there. I don't see anyone beating the Shockers, so that is a loss for everyone except SIU and two for the Redbirds. If we can find a way to get to 11-7 that will be 2nd place, due to us having the tiebreaker over everyone. 10-8 is probably 3rd and 9-9 avoids Drake Night in St. Louis.

          Oops sorry the Aces are done with Shockers as well.
          Last edited by achrist70; 02-04-2016, 12:12 PM.

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          • #6
            Re: How high can we finish?

            Depends on if we can stay healthy...looks like we have healed up for the most part. Morgan had a close call last night. I think the team has turned the corner but still have a ways to go. I think we land at 5, maybe 4th

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: How high can we finish?

              Originally posted by achrist70 View Post
              If we would have taken care of business early we would be almost a lock for the 2nd spot in St. Louis. Luckily the way things are set up now it is not unrealistic to think that we could get there. I don't see anyone beating the Shockers, so...
              I would have said that last year, also. And I wouldn't have thought we could beat Tarheels.

              IF we get Defense clicking, 3-pointers good (doesn't have to be 8/11 from Jespersen - just 5/11 is good), Wes running and creating without wincing, and Koch scoring in the paint,
              THEN we can beat WSU in St. Louis.
              ELSE...(don't want to think about it)

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: How high can we finish?

                I realize they are tied for 2nd currently, but in my mind Evansville nearly has #2 wrapped up already. They have 3 road games left against the bottom 3 teams in the league. They've already played WSU and InSt twice, and they get MSU, IlSt, SIU, and UNI at home. They should be favored in every remaining regular season game.

                Illinois State and Missouri State have very tough stretches to finish the season. UNI could jump MSU, but if they finish in a 2-way tie with Illinois State, they will probably lose the tiebreaker for seeding (per ESPN, they are currently #6 in non-con SOS, UNI is #42). If UNI can go 5-2 down the stretch, they are probably looking at the 4-5 game. I'd be pretty surprised if they can get higher than the #4 seed without at least a 6-1 record.

                This chart breaks down the game odds I use in the model (from Sagarin):

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: How high can we finish?

                  Originally posted by Hacksaw View Post
                  I realize they are tied for 2nd currently, but in my mind Evansville nearly has #2 wrapped up already. They have 3 road games left against the bottom 3 teams in the league. They've already played WSU and InSt twice, and they get MSU, IlSt, SIU, and UNI at home. They should be favored in every remaining regular season game.

                  Illinois State and Missouri State have very tough stretches to finish the season. UNI could jump MSU, but if they finish in a 2-way tie with Illinois State, they will probably lose the tiebreaker for seeding (per ESPN, they are currently #6 in non-con SOS, UNI is #42). If UNI can go 5-2 down the stretch, they are probably looking at the 4-5 game. I'd be pretty surprised if they can get higher than the #4 seed without at least a 6-1 record.

                  This chart breaks down the game odds I use in the model (from Sagarin):

                  I don't know man. Using facts and data to back up your opinion...seems like witchcraft around here.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: How high can we finish?

                    Originally posted by Zakelsta View Post
                    I don't know man. Using facts and data to back up your opinion...seems like witchcraft around here.
                    Agreed! Burn him at the stake!

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: How high can we finish?

                      Originally posted by Hacksaw View Post
                      Agreed! Burn him at the stake!
                      In all seriousness, I agree. I think we should end up with about 4-5 more wins. Could we get 6, yup. Could we get 2 or 3? Yup. But the most likely scenario is about 4.

                      9-9 could put us anywhere from 3-7th. Which is pretty normal for the valley. What year was it when like 5 or 6 schools were all tied at 9-9?

                      If we can take care of business and win the 5 games we should win, and try hard to steal 1 of those road games. We'll be in a great spot, regardless of what anyone else does.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: How high can we finish?

                        Originally posted by Zakelsta View Post
                        What year was it when like 5 or 6 schools were all tied at 9-9?
                        February 25, 2012 - Indiana State hosted Creighton:
                        With a win, Indiana State would've won the 6-way tiebreaker at 9-9 and pulled the 3-seed. However, they lost by one point and ended up with the 8-seed.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: How high can we finish?

                          Originally posted by Hacksaw View Post
                          February 25, 2012 - Indiana State hosted Creighton:
                          With a win, Indiana State would've won the 6-way tiebreaker at 9-9 and pulled the 3-seed. However, they lost by one point and ended up with the 8-seed.
                          Yuck!! If I were to choose our destiny, give me the win or give me a bad loss, not a 1 point deal. I bleed purple and gold and will always want the win, but a loss by one point would give me as a fan a dang heart attack (especially on home court). Not to mention that moving 5 seeds down would make me

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                          • #14
                            Re: How high can we finish?

                            I admire all the optimism, but to think we can go 5-2 and the 5 teams between us and WSU will all go 3-4 or worse allowing us to take 2nd is, well, I'd stay out of casinos.

                            We've looked like a 6th or worse team all conference season, the best we can hope for is 6th and no Thurs game. Getting to that will be tough enough. Now once we get there, if we play smart and a couple three of our 3 point specialists get hot, we could easily win a game or two in STL.
                            GO PANTHERS!

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: How high can we finish?

                              Originally posted by Hacksaw View Post
                              I realize they are tied for 2nd currently, but in my mind Evansville nearly has #2 wrapped up already. They have 3 road games left against the bottom 3 teams in the league. They've already played WSU and InSt twice, and they get MSU, IlSt, SIU, and UNI at home. They should be favored in every remaining regular season game.

                              Illinois State and Missouri State have very tough stretches to finish the season. UNI could jump MSU, but if they finish in a 2-way tie with Illinois State, they will probably lose the tiebreaker for seeding (per ESPN, they are currently #6 in non-con SOS, UNI is #42). If UNI can go 5-2 down the stretch, they are probably looking at the 4-5 game. I'd be pretty surprised if they can get higher than the #4 seed without at least a 6-1 record.

                              This chart breaks down the game odds I use in the model (from Sagarin):

                              Teamrankings.com projects Northern Iowa to finish the regular season 17-14 and ranked #100 with a 7.3% chance of an NCAA Bid. This doesn't look like enough for an at large NIT bid. The top four after the regular season are North Carolina, Villanova, Michigan State, and Louisville.

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