On a positive note, I’ll add that the other metrics the selection committee apparently looks have been starting to trend upward. They had been lagging behind our NET ranking, but that is starting to change. That would include KPI, KenPom, Sagarin, BPI, and strength of record. Strength of Record is up to 17.
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Originally posted by Gboom23 View PostIt was a pretty terrible Saturday from our non-conference opponents, except South Carolina. The more it goes on, the more I think it’s going to be hard to climb higher than the mid-30’s in the NET. Any loss would seem to drop us 20+ spots and then it takes 3 weeks to get back where we were.
If the goal is to be in position for an at-large, then you are going to need some cushion to absorb a loss as the final result as well. I continue to believe a record of 28-5 (15-3, Sunday loss in STL) should get us in. And this team deserves to be in, without a doubt.
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Playing with that Team Ranking site, couple interesting things, firstly, the odds that we get into the tournament (according to this site) actually went down from yesterday. Now, aggregate, odds went up, but that's because they dropped the possibility of only winning 19 games, every winning total's chances went down. The 27 win mark has actually gone from 61% chance of making the tourney to 49.5% chance. Secondly, right now, we have an 8-ish percent chance of making the sweet sixteen. That's actually pretty decent, given the amount of factors. It's an interesting site, if you've got some time to kill, it's worth checking out.Last edited by sevelev711; 01-19-2020, 01:44 PM.
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Originally posted by sevelev711 View Post
Hmm, I don't know about that. I mean it's certainly doable, there's 12 regular seasons game left and at least one more in the tourney, but likely more since we'll probably be playing a Thursday team. But let's ignore speculation on the tourney for now, that'd be winning 11 of the 12 to get 27 wins. Does anyone feel like being 27-3, 16-2 before Arch Madness gets us in? 29-4? 27-5? Remember, this isn't should we get in on that, but would we get in? I'm gonna say no to 27 wins. I think it has to be minimum 28, and with no stinkers. At Loyola and At Indiana State are the only acceptable places to lose. And only one of those, not both. If we go 17-1 in conference, I think we're pretty safe. Borderline lock if we make it to Saturday, and actual lock if we lose on Sunday. 30-3 is a lock, 29-3 is close to it, 28-3 we're cutting it close. After that, I think it gets dicey.
27 wins might be "fairly good shot" from an analytics standpoint, but not a realistic standpoint.
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Originally posted by sevelev711 View PostPlaying with that Team Ranking site, couple interesting things, firstly, the odds that we get into the tournament (according to this site) actually went down from yesterday. Now, aggregate, odds went up, but that's because they dropped the possibility of only winning 19 games, every winning total's chances went down. The 27 win mark has actually gone from 61% chance of making the tourney to 49.5% chance. Secondly, right now, we have an 8-ish percent chance of making the sweet sixteen. That's actually pretty decent, given the amount of factors. It's an interesting site, if you've got some time to kill, it's worth checking out.
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The AP is again releasing ballots after lots of negative press.
Here are our votes:
17- Dave Preston (WTOP Radio, Washington DC), Jon Wilner (San Jose Mercury News)
19- Dave Borges (New Haven Register, New Haven, CT)
21- Brian McInnis (Honolulu Star-Advertiser), Sam Blum (Dallas Morning News)
22- Chad Leistikow (Des Moines Register)
24- Jordan Hansen (Missoulian, Missoula, MT)
25- Doug Doughty (Roanoke Times, Roanoke, VA)#MACtion
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Originally posted by BCPanther View PostThe AP is again releasing ballots after lots of negative press.
Here are our votes:
17- Dave Preston (WTOP Radio, Washington DC), Jon Wilner (San Jose Mercury News)
19- Dave Borges (New Haven Register, New Haven, CT)
21- Brian McInnis (Honolulu Star-Advertiser), Sam Blum (Dallas Morning News)
22- Chad Leistikow (Des Moines Register)
24- Jordan Hansen (Missoulian, Missoula, MT)
25- Doug Doughty (Roanoke Times, Roanoke, VA)
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Originally posted by sevelev711 View Post
Can't believe a couple rando's on either coast think we're better than a somewhat local guy does.
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