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Some Interesting MVC Stats

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  • Some Interesting MVC Stats

    Noticed a few interesting stats today as I looked over the MVC standings:

    UNI is the only team unbeaten at home this year at 15-0. (Bradley is 15-1, Drake is 14-1)
    UNI is the only team with anything close to a winning record on the road at 7-4. (Loyola next best at 4-6)
    Eight teams out of 10 could finish with a winning record if MSU goes on a mini-run.
    Illinois State is the only team without a road win in the league at 0-11. (Drake is next worst with only 2 road wins)
    Still possible for eight of the ten teams to finish at .500 or better in the league for the year.

    This league ended up being better than we may have thought in Nov./Dec.

    Feel free to add your own...
    Give us a yell, HO! The purple and the gold
    Victory for U-N-I!

    Find out what the other team wants to do, then take it away from them.
    - George Halas

  • #2
    I think the Valley is strong this year but it's time for the other teams to start pulling their weight in the non-con. Bradley, MSU, and Loyola should all have done a lot better.

    Cautiously optimistic for a better start next year

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by MNpanthers View Post
      I think the Valley is strong this year but it's time for the other teams to start pulling their weight in the non-con. Bradley, MSU, and Loyola should all have done a lot better.

      Cautiously optimistic for a better start next year
      Nobody knows what the NET formula actually is but Loyola losing HOME games to Davidson and freaking Coppin State had to cost them 30 spots, easy...
      #MACtion

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by MNpanthers View Post
        I think the Valley is strong this year but it's time for the other teams to start pulling their weight in the non-con. Bradley, MSU, and Loyola should all have done a lot better.

        Cautiously optimistic for a better start next year
        The league is fairly balanced this year, but not overly strong. Our win against Colorado, and Evansville’s one off win vs Kentucky are the only two P5 wins against nationally relevant teams, at least that I can think of. The MVC has to win more non-con games against quality opposition. Quality means teams that are ranked, or at least in the picture to be ranked. Next year has the potential to be better, with so many teams returning key players.
        Last edited by SteinPizza; 02-26-2020, 09:14 AM.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by SteinPizza View Post

          The league is fairly balanced this year, but not overly strong. Our win against Colorado, and Evansville’s one off win vs Kentucky are the only two P5 wins against nationally relevant teams, at least that I can think of. The MVC has to win more non-con games against quality opposition. Quality means teams that are ranked, or at least in the picture to be ranked. Next year has the potential to be better, with so many teams returning key players.
          Winning more games against quality opponents would absolutely help. I think not losing games to poor competition could be just as beneficial. Look at some of the head scratching non-con losses this year...

          Bradley lost at St. Joe's (#231 NET)
          lost on a neutral court to Northwestern (#178 NET)
          lost at Miami of Ohio (#241 NET)

          Drake lost on a neutral court to Miami of Ohio (#241 NET)

          Evansville lost on a neutral court to East Carolina (#195 NET)
          lost on a neutral court to George Washington (#193 NET)
          lost at Jacksonville State (#279 NET)

          Illinois State lost at home to UCF (#127 NET)
          lost on a neutral court to Grand Canyon (#271 NET)
          lost at Northern Kentucky (#153 NET)
          lost at UTSA (#192 NET)

          Indiana State lost on a neutral court to Ball State (#115 NET)

          Loyola lost at home to Coppin State (#326 NET)
          lost on a neutral court to South Florida (#123 NET)

          Missouri State lost at home to Arkansas-Little Rock (#139 NET)
          lost on a neutral court to Buffalo (#137 NET)
          lost on the road to Oral Roberts (#160 NET)

          SIU lost on a neutral court to Delaware (#184 NET)
          lost on a neutral court of Oakland (#220 NET)
          lost at home to San Francisco (#97 NET)
          lost at Murray State (#149 NET)
          lost at Southern Miss (#270 NET)

          Valpo lost at Eastern Michigan (#182 NET)
          lost at Charlotte (#165 NET)

          Obviously, some of those losses are worse than others. As MVC teams we usually don't get a lot of home games in the non-con so it is absolutely vital that we protect home court (especially against what is usually inferior competition). We also gotta win some more of these MTE neutral site games. I wouldn't mind seeing the Valley try to get something going with the A10, Mountain West, etc. I don't think taking 1-2 buy games against good P5 teams is a horrible idea either - I think UNI took the right approach with Colorado this season: look for a P5 team that will likely be pretty solid, is out of state (usually knows less about you as an opponent than an in-state P5 team would), etc.

          Comment


          • #6
            What the conference needs to do as a whole, is for everybody to finish non-conference action at 10-2 or better. This is exactly what the Big Ten accomplished this year with twelve of their fourteen teams. If all your teams are 10-2, regardless of who they beat, you're going to have those better records crossing over, multiple times against one another. If you look at how the MVC has shaken out this year, can you imagine if everyone would have had only 1 or 2 losses coming in? I just did this exercise. Here's what the overall standings would look like given everyone still had the same conference records...

            24-5, Northern Iowa
            23-7, Loyola-Chicago
            22-8, Bradley
            19-9, Indiana State
            21-9, Southern Illinois
            20-10, Vaparaiso
            19-11, Drake
            19-11, Missouri State
            14-15, Illinois State
            11-19, Evansville

            How do you think the MVC would be viewed nationally, with five of their ten teams having 20 wins and three of the others sitting at 19? Not only do you get the benefit of playing all these better records, each team would also have the benefit of having pumped up their average Margin of Victory(MoV), winning percentage and adjusted winning percentage. This in turn would help all individual teams improve their NET rankings, which in turn would help everybody within the conference by playing a larger percentage of teams with higher NETs. This is precisely what the Big Ten has done this season.

            Wanna improve the conference's standing nationally? Scrub and cupcakes all November and December. Home or away, doesn't matter. But everyone in the conference winning around 80% of their non-conference games is the key.

            Comment


            • #7
              That's basically saying "Just win more" lol. I mean, yeah, winning would be nice. Problem is, we literally don't know what helps with NET. We don't know if it's running it up on bad teams or competing well against good teams. Purdue is .500 and has their stupid NET rating because they're just playing other good teams. "Schedule all cupcakes and win almost all of them" could backfire spectacularly and make it so that a team at 30-3 has a NET of like 60.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by sevelev711 View Post
                That's basically saying "Just win more" lol. I mean, yeah, winning would be nice. Problem is, we literally don't know what helps with NET. We don't know if it's running it up on bad teams or competing well against good teams. Purdue is .500 and has their stupid NET rating because they're just playing other good teams. "Schedule all cupcakes and win almost all of them" could backfire spectacularly and make it so that a team at 30-3 has a NET of like 60.
                Case in point, look at Stephen F. Austin (and they even have the road win at Duke to pad their resume) - they're 22-3 against D1 opponents but their NET is #82 because their SOS is 342 out of 353 D1 teams.

                Comment


                • #9
                  I'm sure that the mysterious ranking metric is set up to allow P5 schools to schedule a bunch of home games against cupcakes and maintain a good ranking, but to punish mid-majors and smaller schools that do the same thing.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by unipanthers8907 View Post

                    Case in point, look at Stephen F. Austin (and they even have the road win at Duke to pad their resume) - they're 22-3 against D1 opponents but their NET is #82 because their SOS is 342 out of 353 D1 teams.
                    I would argue that when they put this non-conference schedule together it was pretty decent. Of their 3 losses they only have one bad loss. You could argue Alabama as a "bad" loss but at the time it was a big game for them and keeping it close probably felt pretty good. Their conference games - they can't do anything about. Can you punish them for how bad teams are that they "have to" play? I feel for them because we could very easily be in their same situation!
                    Last edited by r54uni; 02-27-2020, 09:33 AM.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      I am sure SFA scheduled the best they could. Especially tough for them but they will have played 6 games total against Q1-Q3 opponents. 21-1 against Q4 it looks like.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Stephen F. Austin is held back because they play in a conference of halfwits. This is what I was saying. EVERYBODY in the conference has to be on the same page. This is why the Big Ten, and Purdue by example, has done what they've done.

                        Look at these Non-Conference Strength of Schedule rankings for the Big Ten.
                        104, Michigan State(8-3, non-conference)
                        178, Maryland(10-1)
                        107, Michigan(9-2)
                        226, Ohio State(10-1)
                        283, Penn State(10-1)
                        87, Iowa(9-2)
                        84, Purdue(7-4)
                        132, Wisconsin(7-4)
                        338, Illinois(8-3)
                        309, Rutgers(9-2)
                        80, Minnesota(6-4)
                        200, Indiana(10-1)
                        259, Northwestern(5-5)
                        222, Nebraska(5-6)
                        BIG TEN AVERAGE = 186 (113-39, 0.743)

                        Those SoS numbers are nothing to brag about.Only three are in the top 100 and half of them are 200 or worse). How can they get away with this? Simple. They would almost 75% of their non-conference games, destroying many of those opponents. Winning Percentage, Adjusted Winning Percentage and Margin Of Victory, all boosted. Not to mention, their Offensive and Defensive Efficiencies are maximized by crushing these sub-par opponents. Then conference season comes along and you're playing nothing but teams that have also maxed every component of the algorithm.

                        Don't tell me WE don't know what helps the NET. I do. All the information is out there. Wanna know why there isn't a lot of movement now? Because we're almost 30 games into the season. One result is equal to about 3% of your season. It's not like the end of December when one game equaled 10%.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          The NET is capitalism at it's core. It's designed to help the schools that will ultimately make the most money in the tournament, through ticket sales,TV ratings and advertising dollars.
                          Small schools have a small following so they want to limit the number of them in the tournament. So they've made it easier for the big guys and more difficult for the little guys. It's $. Plain and simple.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by orangetennis View Post
                            The NET is capitalism at it's core. It's designed to help the schools that will ultimately make the most money in the tournament, through ticket sales,TV ratings and advertising dollars.
                            Small schools have a small following so they want to limit the number of them in the tournament. So they've made it easier for the big guys and more difficult for the little guys. It's $. Plain and simple.
                            But in 2010 when we went to St. Louis to play Michigan State that place was clearly more Purple and Gold. Even when Michigan State, Tennessee, and Ohio State were all there.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by beef50677 View Post
                              Those SoS numbers are nothing to brag about.Only three are in the top 100 and half of them are 200 or worse). How can they get away with this? Simple. They would almost 75% of their non-conference games, destroying many of those opponents. Winning Percentage, Adjusted Winning Percentage and Margin Of Victory, all boosted. Not to mention, their Offensive and Defensive Efficiencies are maximized by crushing these sub-par opponents. Then conference season comes along and you're playing nothing but teams that have also maxed every component of the algorithm.
                              Concentrating solely on non-conference SoS doesn't give you the big picture. Conference SoS plays a big role too. the Big Ten can go out and play a bunch of cupcakes because they have their conference games to help their ranking. Plus they have the money and the clout to buy a bunch of cupcake games. The MVC doesn't have that luxury (teams already have to resort to playing multiple D3 teams in order to get their cupcake games)

                              Comment

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