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Class of 2019 - Football Recruits

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  • Blue42
    replied
    Per his post on social media, Garret Jansen is headed to Minnesota State - Mankato to play his final season of ball.

    Leave a comment:


  • ronfitch
    replied
    Originally posted by Big Cats View Post

    Iowa's Masters Speech Path program has twice as many applicants as they have positions for the program. Many graduates finish their masters elsewhere after getting their undergraduate degree from Iowa.
    Of course they do. Read my entire post.

    Maybe Ferentz is mistaken. Maybe Jansen is now considering something else. Maybe he always was.

    But we do have that one quote made by Ferentz when he announced that Jansen is leaving Iowa that Jansen wants to pursue something that Iowa does not offer. Which makes it relevant to this conversation.

    Again, I would love to see Jansen at UNI.

    Leave a comment:


  • UNIdad
    replied
    Originally posted by clenz View Post

    This is true.

    Rivals, IIRC, has between 25-35 5 star kids each year. Going through the last decade they average 30 per season. The kids from 31-250 are 4* kids. Between 251-750 is 3*. Anything outside of 751 is 2 star or not ranked.

    When you start looking at NFL drafts by recruiting stars:

    It’s not a scientific set of data (you'd need many more years of data than I pulled to make an absolute conclusion), but here’s what the percentage of players drafted per recruiting rankings look like if you combine the handful of years I pulled:
    About 60% of 5 star kids get drafted
    About 25% of four-star kids get drafted
    About 6% of three-star kids get drafted
    About 1-2% of two-star kids get drafted

    Five-stars, in general, are eventually drafted 50-plus percent of the time. Three-star players, meanwhile, make it at a rate of around five percent.

    So yes, as much as recruiting services are pretty silly for their rankings outside of their top end talent and teams, they generally do a damn good job identifying and "ranking" the talent of kids.

    Having said that, yes there are more players of 3 star and lower in the NFL. There are 1,696 players, excluding practice squad, in the NFL. There are roughly 30 five-star kids in any given year. There are roughly 500 three star kids in any given year. Basic math tells you that NFL rosters are going to have significant numbers from outside of the 5 star ranks.

    These are important stats to keep in mind for players (and parents) who are "counting on" an NFL career. It seems that most 3 star guys are hoping to be drafted or sign with an NFL team. Yet, the odds are stacked against them. It certainly doesn't mean that they "can't." Your stats show that they indeed can. And maybe just having the dream is okay, but I would have trouble encouraging someone to pursue this path without helping them recognize that the joy may need to be in the journey, not the destination.

    Leave a comment:


  • Big Cats
    replied
    Originally posted by ronfitch View Post



    Iowa has a Speech Pathology graduate program, a very highly rated program.

    Again, FWIW.

    I would be very happy to see him at UNI.
    Iowa's Masters Speech Path program has twice as many applicants as they have positions for the program. Many graduates finish their masters elsewhere after getting their undergraduate degree from Iowa.

    Leave a comment:


  • clenz
    replied
    Grad transfers much go into a program their previous school doesn't offer.

    UNI can offer Speach Pathology. He can skirt the rules and declare to another program, take SP programs and after the season move to the SP program. That's not really the spirit of the rule, but the spirit of the rule has never been followed anyway.

    Leave a comment:


  • ronfitch
    replied
    Originally posted by DownGoesKansas View Post

    If I am remembering correctly, I think he wants a Speech Pathology masters, I'd be mildly surprised if he doesn't come here.
    FWIW ...

    “All of us are appreciative of Garret’s efforts and contributions," said Ferentz. "Garret will seek a graduate program course of study that is unavailable to him here." (https://247sports.com/college/iowa/A...ner-127652074/)

    Iowa has a Speech Pathology graduate program, a very highly rated program.

    Again, FWIW.

    I would be very happy to see him at UNI.

    Leave a comment:


  • DownGoesKansas
    replied
    Originally posted by clenz View Post
    I haven't, but I haven't looked too hard.

    He certainly doesn't have the profile from his Iowa days to land at another P5. Most G5s are a stretch. Considering his connection to the state of Iowa it seems like he could fit. I'd also guess SDSU, USD and WIU will be in for him.
    If I am remembering correctly, I think he wants a Speech Pathology masters, I'd be mildly surprised if he doesn't come here.

    Leave a comment:


  • clenz
    replied
    Originally posted by Yupster View Post
    Although NFL rosters are largely made up of 3 starts and below, that is at least somewhat the result of there being far fewer 4 and 5 stars. I'd think that an analysis of 5 stars would likely reveal that the majority of them make it to the NFL. Still, a good college player doesn't necessarily make a good NFL prospect. The ratings system biggest for is that it can only really evaluate where a player is right now. So much goes into a good high school player developing into a productive college player, some of which depends on the player and some depends on their situation.
    This is true.

    Rivals, IIRC, has between 25-35 5 star kids each year. Going through the last decade they average 30 per season. The kids from 31-250 are 4* kids. Between 251-750 is 3*. Anything outside of 751 is 2 star or not ranked.

    When you start looking at NFL drafts by recruiting stars:

    It’s not a scientific set of data (you'd need many more years of data than I pulled to make an absolute conclusion), but here’s what the percentage of players drafted per recruiting rankings look like if you combine the handful of years I pulled:
    About 60% of 5 star kids get drafted
    About 25% of four-star kids get drafted
    About 6% of three-star kids get drafted
    About 1-2% of two-star kids get drafted

    Five-stars, in general, are eventually drafted 50-plus percent of the time. Three-star players, meanwhile, make it at a rate of around five percent.

    So yes, as much as recruiting services are pretty silly for their rankings outside of their top end talent and teams, they generally do a damn good job identifying and "ranking" the talent of kids.

    Having said that, yes there are more players of 3 star and lower in the NFL. There are 1,696 players, excluding practice squad, in the NFL. There are roughly 30 five-star kids in any given year. There are roughly 500 three star kids in any given year. Basic math tells you that NFL rosters are going to have significant numbers from outside of the 5 star ranks.

    Leave a comment:


  • Yupster
    replied
    Although NFL rosters are largely made up of 3 stars and below, that is at least somewhat the result of there being far fewer 4 and 5 stars. I'd think that an analysis of 5 stars would likely reveal that the majority of them make it to the NFL. Still, a good college player doesn't necessarily make a good NFL prospect. The ratings system biggest failure is that it can only really evaluate where a player is right now. So much goes into a good high school player developing into a productive college player, some of which depends on the player and some depends on their situation.
    Last edited by Yupster; 02-12-2019, 09:28 AM.

    Leave a comment:


  • SteinPizza
    replied
    I’ve always said football recruiting is an art, not science. It’s why there are plenty of FCS and DII level guys on NFL rosters every year. If it were science, then those same players would all end up playing in the SEC, or at Ohio State, etc, and displace those who are not NFL caliber.

    Put another way, someone did a study of the Super Bowl rosters of both teams a few years ago. I think it was somewhere around 30-40% of both rosters were made up of 3 star or below high school recruits according to one of the big sites, with plenty of 2, 1, no star guys in that list. Those type of guys aren’t going to Alabama. If future NFL players were so easy to identify, then the above would not be true.

    Leave a comment:


  • clenz
    replied
    Originally posted by SteinPizza View Post

    I think I saw that Martens was the top ranked FCS QB signing according to them. I don’t put huge stock in the star ranking services, but just how credible is Hero Sports?
    Hero is as good as you'll get for the FCS level. Their coverage has far surpassed STATS in the last year or two. HERO has dumped a bunch of money into their FCS coverage lately.

    They don't "evaluate" players by going to games and watching a ton of film - though they do watch some. They act as a "more accurate" 247 for the FCS. They'll go through a kids offers to check on the "validity" of them, rankings from other sites, competition faced, etc. 247 will have their own ranks for kids, but what people really use 247 for, and they know it, is the composite ranks and combining of everything else that exists.

    It's not a perfect system. I'd argue calling it "good" right now is about as far as it could be twisted too. That's not a fault at HERO, just the reality of doing what they can with what recruiting's world is. I will say if you want to look for someplace for FCS rankings, like the "big boys" get, this is it.

    They've been doing this since 2016, but this is the first year they've put a ton of marketing into it and sold them as being a truly one stop viable ranking - which is a direct reflection on them putting way more money and resources into their FCS coverage in the last year.

    Here is the 2016 rankings - UNI was number 5, Montana was #4
    Here is the 2017 rankings - UNI was number 47
    Here is the 2018 rankings - UNI was number 41

    What' you'll find if you look at the rankings is a lot of programs that aren't very good as programs in the top 20-30. This is a direct reflection of how the "star" system in general is broke and why places like Stephan F Austin end up signing 13 3* kids almost every year, have a top flight recruiting class on paper every year, yet are never good.

    Go through the 2016 rankings and you'll see Austin Peay, Colgate, SFA, Lamar, Eastern Kentucky, UND, Samford, McNeese State, Chatty, Charleston Southern, Furman, Columbia (bottom of the Ivy), Bethune-Cookman (bottom of the MEAC). These are schools that now should be top 20 programs with that class having now had 3 years to develop and become contributors this coming season. They don't be.

    If you look at 2017 programs like Prairie View A&M (bottom of the SWAC), Howard (bottom of the MEAC), Austin Peay (Again), Holy Cross (bottom of the PL), Furman (again), Savanah State (who was the worst FCS program and has dropped D2), Texas Southern (bottom of the SWAC), Charleston Southern, Tennessee State, Monmouth (who we saw get curbed in the dome), UT-Martin (who we've seen get clubbed in the dome), UND (who is a bad program), Columbia (again), SIU (bottom of the Valley), NAU (towards the bottom of the BSC), USD, EKU (again), Chatty (again), Mercer (who isn't great) ALL ranked a head of UNI's class. I wouldn't trade UNI's class for any of those.

    In 2018 these schools apparently had better (or at least as good) recruiting classes than UNI Holy Cross, UT-Martin, Campbell, Duquense, Alcorn State, Furman, Houston Baptist, Bethune Cookman, YSU, Tennessee State, Howard, Murray State, Prairie View AM, Grambing, Western Carolina, The Citadel, Stony Brook, Austin Peay, Columbia, Mercer, Chatty, Montana State.

    Look at the freshman and sophomores we've had the last two years. Do you really think that the kids signed at Holy Cross, non scholarship Campbell or half scholarship Duquesne are better?

    Now, as I've said, this year is the first year they've put this much work into them. Still not great. According to the last 4 class rankings from them Chatty should be every bit as good as NDSU. They are right there with NDSU in the top 10 recruiting classes every single season.

    Leave a comment:


  • Yupster
    replied
    They don't claim to do any actual evaluating, although it's hard to tell how they distinguish some players from others. Their posts allude to some formula based on what they determine as other "quality" offers. In the end, it really just means they got a lot of players that other people wanted.

    Leave a comment:


  • SteinPizza
    replied
    Originally posted by Yupster View Post
    Hero Sports' ranking of the 2019 FCS recruiting classes. They have UNI at #5

    https://m.herosports.com/fcs/footbal...ankings-ajaj#2
    I think I saw that Martens was the top ranked FCS QB signing according to them. I don’t put huge stock in the star ranking services, but just how credible is Hero Sports?

    Leave a comment:


  • Blue42
    replied
    Originally posted by Yupster View Post
    Hero Sports' ranking of the 2019 FCS recruiting classes. They have UNI at #5

    https://m.herosports.com/fcs/footbal...ankings-ajaj#2
    Interesting list with some odd names....

    3 Ivy League schools, Western Carolina and SFA.

    Leave a comment:


  • Yupster
    replied
    Hero Sports' ranking of the 2019 FCS recruiting classes. They have UNI at #5

    https://m.herosports.com/fcs/footbal...ankings-ajaj#2

    Leave a comment:

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