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Official 2022 Panther Basketball Recruit List

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  • Originally posted by clenz View Post
    Samrt defensive coaches are going to coach their guys to let a guy shoot from 15 all day every day. It's literally the worst shot in all of basketball. Period.

    These numbers are a couple years old but they haven't changed

    Points Per Shot by location
    At the hoop - 1.22
    All other 2 pointers - .82
    Corner 3 - 1.16
    All other 3s - 1.1

    Now you'll go "If they don't contest they'll drain those all day long"....but not really

    Contested vs uncontested
    Open 2 - .85
    Contested - .8
    Open 3 - 1.10
    Contested 3 - .95

    By shot top
    Pull up 2 - .79
    Catch and shoot 2 - .86
    Pull up 3 - .97
    Catch and shoot 3 - 1.12


    There is an overwhelming amount of research on this. One researcher broke it down by 2 foot instances and distance of closest defender. From 14 feet with a defender 4 feet away (what would be considered a largely open look) players averaged .8 points per shot. A 21 foot jump shot with 4 feet of space averages .78 points per shot. From 24 feet with 4 feet of space shots average 1.06 points per shot.


    No one is hitting 75% from 12 feet. NBA shooters from 12 feet with 4 feet of space shoot 40%. Once you get outside of the restricted area FG% plummet. You go from 75% at 3 feet to under 50% by the time you get to 6 feet and from there you are at 40% the time you hit 11 feet. There has been one team over the last two deacdes that has successfully use the midrange jump shot to actually make a difference in games/their season. Golden State at peak Golden State - turns out having a handful of the best scorers/shooters in all of NBA history helps with that.

    Does it help to have guys who can get inside? Yes. Is the more "traditional" method how to create offense through driving to the FT line the best offense in 2022? Not even close.
    Smart coaches allow the opposition to shoot 15 footers? Wow. Your data says that guys make more shots from deeper with defenders equal distance from the shooter? Um … not sure where you get your data, but I think you have some flaws in it. One basic element of science is “logic”. Your argument is not valid on its face. Go out in your driveway and shoot from 10 feet and 25 feet and see which results in a higher percentage. Shoot 100 of each. See what you get. The answer is driven by a thing called physics.

    Have you ever played basketball? Outside a layup or dunk, the highest scoring shot is the catch and shoot uncontested 3 according to your data. How do you think you draw the D to get the open 3? You get into the lane.

    Data also says the corner 3 is the easiest. No, it is most likely the spot left open … partly because it’s not the easiest.

    You also suggest coaches leave players open in then mid-range because their field goal percentage is lower … maybe it becomes lower if it is more contested? which is why you help off to contest an open 10 footer.

    You see, correlation and causation are different things, and understanding basketball and crunching numbers when on a Minecraft break are different things.

    How has standing around the 3 point line chucking contested 3’s worked for the panthers? Not good. I recommend they consider finding ways to get in the paint to draw defenders and open up some shots. Otherwise losing will continue.

    One last point for all the post-modern ballers out there … scoring in college basketball continues to decline overall.
    Last edited by Big I; 12-29-2021, 10:55 PM.

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    • By every conceivable statistic (points per possession, offensive and defensive efficiency, rebounding rate) we're a 9-2 team at this point.

      It's incredibly frustrating and trying to play the way the game was played 20 years ago isn't going to help. I miss the variety in styles too but the numbers say what they say.
      #MACtion

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      • Was it the Lickliter days when Iowa was taking mid-range jumpers all the time? Or was that earlier Fran? I honestly can't remember, but I do remember that being a huge point of contention with those teams.

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        • I'm looking at some recruits for the next year or two, and I'm just curious why there isn't much of any interest in state for Ruot Bijiek from Valley in West Des Moines. He has offers from a really strange variety of places. He had early offers from Arkansas, Seton Hall, Nebraska, but now according to the Des Moines Register the biggest teams involved are Bucknell, Purdue Fort-Wayne, and Princeton and Penn among others. Is this purely just a thing where he wants a high quality academic institution and basketball is secondary? The kid is 6'9" and athletic.

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          • Originally posted by BCPanther View Post
            By every conceivable statistic (points per possession, offensive and defensive efficiency, rebounding rate) we're a 9-2 team at this point.

            It's incredibly frustrating and trying to play the way the game was played 20 years ago isn't going to help. I miss the variety in styles too but the numbers say what they say.
            The numbers say that chucking contested 3’s means you lose. That’s what the results are. You say we should be 9-2? Hmm but we are not. How does the quote go … “There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.” If you you don’t understand what’s behind the data, the data can lead you right down a black hole.

            Recall Paul Westhead promoting these sort of statistics back in the early ‘90’s and went to the shot a 3 every 5 seconds offense … it failed to result in wins. They scored points, but they gave up long rebounds, had no offensive rebounding, etc. that resulted in the other teams scoring more.

            You need to know the game, and have experienced it. The basic fundamentals of good offense have not changed one bit. The only change has been the faces on the fools.

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            • Originally posted by PantherAlum09 View Post
              Was it the Lickliter days when Iowa was taking mid-range jumpers all the time? Or was that earlier Fran? I honestly can't remember, but I do remember that being a huge point of contention with those teams.
              Chucking contested 3’s hasn’t worked for Iowa either. They are terrible. Look at their record against anyone with a pulse this season. They will probably battle Nebraska for worst in the Big 10.

              It’s amazing Fran can continue to keep his job considering how marginal they’ve been and their fanbase can’t stand their own team (boos during the national anthem and starting lineups). But, like UNI, Iowa appears to suffer from limited recruiting too.

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              • Originally posted by Big I View Post

                Chucking contested 3’s hasn’t worked for Iowa either. They are terrible. Look at their record against anyone with a pulse this season. They will probably battle Nebraska for worst in the Big 10.

                It’s amazing Fran can continue to keep his job considering how marginal they’ve been and their fanbase can’t stand their own team (boos during the national anthem and starting lineups). But, like UNI, Iowa appears to suffer from limited recruiting too.
                Iowa now compared to where they were before Fran is not even close. I don't like Fran, either, but Iowa was in a horrible spot before him. There's a reason he's survived. The guy had the national player of the year last year. He has another guy that is a monster this year. And neither of these guys was recruited highly. For all of Fran's faults (bad defensive teams, slow, lack of athleticism) he does tend to get the most out of who he recruits. But there was a reason Oregon crushed them last year in the tournament. Iowa just lacked any sort of speed to keep up with them. I'm sure from an Iowa fan's pov, they are hopeful that Fran can find some better athletes to supplement the other gems he tends to uncover.

                I do think Fran has a tendency to recruit below where Iowa should be, but that appears to be a different issue than UNI. Iowa has a national program that can be competitive in a major conference. Much of Iowa's issues are around who Fran and others are recruiting. They love shooters so much that they forget they have to have speed and athleticism to get open. They need to be sticking their noses in to where the other big boys are. They can sell the fact they had a national player of the year as well as the fact they play an uptempo style of basketball offensively.

                UNI absolutely should've been a spot for guys like Kreiner, but this is what happens when Fran recruits below where he should be. It limits Iowa's overall potential and cuts into possible contributors in the Valley. Having said all this, I would bet most Iowa fans would take Fran over an alternative right now.

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                • I think that we're burying posts about actual recruits, but there's good discussions going on. If you like, I opened a new Topic here in Panther Recruiting for Basketball Recruiting in General (strategy, style of play to develop, thoughts, etc) to continue these on.
                  Last edited by BobCat; 12-30-2021, 01:21 PM.

                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by BobCat View Post
                    I think that we're burying posts about actual recruits, but there's good discussions going on. If you like, I opened a new Topic here in Panther Recruiting for Basketball Recruiting in General (strategy, style of play to develop, thoughts, etc) to continue these on.
                    Good idea. Sorry, I’m new to this site and probably derailed this thread. I’d enjoy the strategy talk.

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                    • Originally posted by Big I View Post

                      Good idea. Sorry, I’m new to this site and probably derailed this thread. I’d enjoy the strategy talk.
                      New to the site?

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                      • Originally posted by Big I View Post

                        Chucking contested 3’s hasn’t worked for Iowa either. They are terrible. Look at their record against anyone with a pulse this season. They will probably battle Nebraska for worst in the Big 10.

                        It’s amazing Fran can continue to keep his job considering how marginal they’ve been and their fanbase can’t stand their own team (boos during the national anthem and starting lineups). But, like UNI, Iowa appears to suffer from limited recruiting too.
                        Iowa will finish middle of the B1G and probably make the tourney. Both kenpom and Torvik still like them, and last years results have nothing to do with that at this point in the season.

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                        • Still hearing Fens is a possibility.

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                          • Originally posted by edgecat View Post
                            Still hearing Fens is a possibility.
                            I like the sound of that.

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                            • Read that UNI is making a play to host Fens on a visit.

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                              • Does Fens have any offers at the moment? I'm not seeing any, but it may not be updated. Being close to home and that he could play with his HS teammate (Duax), we might have a couple decent chips to play for him.
                                To avoid confusion - my username is baseball (Cy Young award) related, NOT for the Cyclones.

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