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I got this from a thread on AGS. Thanks to Eagle_Cliff for the info. Its a great reference, but the comments are all his. Its a pretty fair breakdown. Plain and simple, we need to win out. There are a ton of 3 loss teams that we need to lose.
Below are the 35 likely teams still competing for one of the 16 spots in the playoffs. Listed by Auto-Bid Conference record, overall record, teams lost to, and remaining games.
A-10
UNH (5-1) (7-1) Wm & Mary - @Hofstra, Iona, Maine
UMass (5-1) (6-2) UNH, Colgate - @Delaware, @Army, @Hofstra
Richmond (5-1) (5-3) UMass, Lafayette, Vandy - VMI, @Towson, W&M
W&M (3-2) (5-3) URI, 'Nova, Marshall - JMU, Delaware, @Richmond
Hofstra (3-2) (5-3) JMU, Richmond, Furman - UNH, @NU, UMass
If UNH wins out, they receive auto-bid and are seeded top 2, 1 loss still in and probably host if bid good enough, 2 losses on the bubble
Umass is OK if only loss is to Army, If 2 losses, extremely unlikely
Richmond can get the auto if Hofstra wins out or UMass and UNH drop a conference game and should get at-large if they win out themselves.
W&M and Hofstra must win out to be in
Big Sky
Montana (3-1) (6-2) Oregon, E. Wash - @NAU, @Sac St., @Mont St
Mont St. (3-1) (5-3) Okla St, C-Poly, Port St. - Sac St., @E. Wash, Montana
E. Wash (4-2) (5-3) SJose St., Id St., Web St. - @C-Poly, MSU, UC-Davis
Weber St.(4-2) (5-4) Fresno St., ND St, UM, MSU - @Port St, @SUtah
Portland St.(3-2) (5-4) Oregon St., E.Wash, Boise St.,UM - @Idaho St,Web St
Montana is in with one loss, but needs to win out for auto-bid
MSU needs to win out or stay home
E. Wash should be in if they win out, and get the auto if MSU beats UM
Portland and Weber need to win out and need UM and MSU to lose twice and E. Wash to lose once, but they're still alive
Gateway
YSU (4-1) (7-2) Pitt, UNI - @SIU, WKU
SIU (4-1) (6-2) W. Mich, Ill. St. - YSU, @UNI, ND St.
WKU (4-1) (6-2) Auburn, SIU - UNI, @YSU, @Fla Int'l
UNI (3-2) (5-3) Iowa, Mo. St, Ill St - @WKU, SIU, NAU
YSU - Win one and in, two for auto
SIU and WKU are in with 2 more wins
UNI wins next two and YSU loses one, they get the auto
MEAC (pronounced Meek)
Hampton (6-0) (8-0) @B-CC, FAMU, Sav'h St
SC St. (4-1) (6-2) Coastal Carolina, Hampton - @Howard, Morgan St., NC AT
Hampton is in barring total collapse vs Sav'h St., but A-10, Big Sky, Gateway, and SoCon will be seeded if UNH, UM, FU or ASU, and anyone but UNI are autos
SC St. shouldn't be in but could be if win out and several other teams lose
OVC
E. Ill (5-0) (6-2) BYU, Ill St. - @Tenn St., Tenn Tech, @Jax St.
Jax St. (5-1) (5-4) Furman, UT-Chatt, EKU, UAB - @Samford, E. Ill
EKU (4-1) (4-4) ASU, WKU, NC St., E. Ill - @Murray St., UT-Martin, @Tenn St.
E. Ill may get in with 2 wins and a loss to Jax St.
Jax St and EKU have a chance to steal someone's bid. Jax just needs to win out. EKU needs to win out AND have E. Ill lose their next two, but beat Jax.
Patriot
Lafayette (3-0) (6-2) Princeton, Harvard - Colgate, @Holy Cross, @Lehigh
Lehigh (2-1) (6-2) Delaware, Holy Cross - Georgetown, @Fordham, Lafayette
Colgate (2-1) (5-3) C. Conn, Dartmouth, Lehigh - @Lafayette, Bucknell, @G'town
If Lafayette wins out, they are the lone team from Patriot
Lehigh is in automatically if they win out, but would probably be passed up if they're 8-3 based on SOS
Colgate can get the auto IF they win out AND Lehigh loses one
SoCon
Furman (3-1) (7-1) WCU - @GSU, Wofford, UT-Chatt
ASU (4-1) (6-2) Kansas, Furman - @LSU, WCU, @Elon
GSU (4-2) (6-3) McNeese St., Wofford, ASU - Furman, Morehead St
Wofford (3-2) (5-3) W.Va, UT-Chatt, ASU - @WCU, @Furman, @Gardner-Webb
WCU (3-2) (4-3) Cincy, Citadel, GSU - Wofford, @ASU
Furman is in with one loss, but maybe not with 2
ASU is in with one loss, but probably not with 2
GSU must win out
Wofford beat GSU and lost to a 1A and ASU, but they get no love. They need to win out to be considered and can get the auto in crazy scenario
WCU can get the auto in crazy scenario, winning out probably wouldnt be enough
Southland
McNeese (3-1) (4-2) So Miss, SE La - @Tex St, NW St., @Nicholls St.
Texas St. (2-1) (6-2) Tex AM, Nicholls St. - McNeese, @SFA, Sam Houston
NW St. (2-1) (4-3) ND St., La-Laf, Tex St. - Nicholls St., @McNeese, SFA
Nicholls St. (2-1) (3-3) Indiana, ND St., SFA - @NW St., @SE La, McNeese
All four of these teams control their own destiny for the auto except NW who needs Tex St. to lose 1. Texas St. can lose one and be a very good 8-3 at-large pick. NW St. is more on the bubble at 8-3 and Nicholls and McNeese would both be in serious trouble at 6-3 unless we have Katrina/Rita playoff relief.
At-Large-Only Teams
Coastal Carolina should be in at 10-1 with a loss to App St.
Cal-Poly has 3 quality losses to Troy St., Montana, and UC-Davis, but will need the autos to fall right to get in at 8-3
UC-Davis and North Dakota St. are ineligible for postseason because they moved up from D-II
Below are the 35 likely teams still competing for one of the 16 spots in the playoffs. Listed by Auto-Bid Conference record, overall record, teams lost to, and remaining games.
A-10
UNH (5-1) (7-1) Wm & Mary - @Hofstra, Iona, Maine
UMass (5-1) (6-2) UNH, Colgate - @Delaware, @Army, @Hofstra
Richmond (5-1) (5-3) UMass, Lafayette, Vandy - VMI, @Towson, W&M
W&M (3-2) (5-3) URI, 'Nova, Marshall - JMU, Delaware, @Richmond
Hofstra (3-2) (5-3) JMU, Richmond, Furman - UNH, @NU, UMass
If UNH wins out, they receive auto-bid and are seeded top 2, 1 loss still in and probably host if bid good enough, 2 losses on the bubble
Umass is OK if only loss is to Army, If 2 losses, extremely unlikely
Richmond can get the auto if Hofstra wins out or UMass and UNH drop a conference game and should get at-large if they win out themselves.
W&M and Hofstra must win out to be in
Big Sky
Montana (3-1) (6-2) Oregon, E. Wash - @NAU, @Sac St., @Mont St
Mont St. (3-1) (5-3) Okla St, C-Poly, Port St. - Sac St., @E. Wash, Montana
E. Wash (4-2) (5-3) SJose St., Id St., Web St. - @C-Poly, MSU, UC-Davis
Weber St.(4-2) (5-4) Fresno St., ND St, UM, MSU - @Port St, @SUtah
Portland St.(3-2) (5-4) Oregon St., E.Wash, Boise St.,UM - @Idaho St,Web St
Montana is in with one loss, but needs to win out for auto-bid
MSU needs to win out or stay home
E. Wash should be in if they win out, and get the auto if MSU beats UM
Portland and Weber need to win out and need UM and MSU to lose twice and E. Wash to lose once, but they're still alive
Gateway
YSU (4-1) (7-2) Pitt, UNI - @SIU, WKU
SIU (4-1) (6-2) W. Mich, Ill. St. - YSU, @UNI, ND St.
WKU (4-1) (6-2) Auburn, SIU - UNI, @YSU, @Fla Int'l
UNI (3-2) (5-3) Iowa, Mo. St, Ill St - @WKU, SIU, NAU
YSU - Win one and in, two for auto
SIU and WKU are in with 2 more wins
UNI wins next two and YSU loses one, they get the auto
MEAC (pronounced Meek)
Hampton (6-0) (8-0) @B-CC, FAMU, Sav'h St
SC St. (4-1) (6-2) Coastal Carolina, Hampton - @Howard, Morgan St., NC AT
Hampton is in barring total collapse vs Sav'h St., but A-10, Big Sky, Gateway, and SoCon will be seeded if UNH, UM, FU or ASU, and anyone but UNI are autos
SC St. shouldn't be in but could be if win out and several other teams lose
OVC
E. Ill (5-0) (6-2) BYU, Ill St. - @Tenn St., Tenn Tech, @Jax St.
Jax St. (5-1) (5-4) Furman, UT-Chatt, EKU, UAB - @Samford, E. Ill
EKU (4-1) (4-4) ASU, WKU, NC St., E. Ill - @Murray St., UT-Martin, @Tenn St.
E. Ill may get in with 2 wins and a loss to Jax St.
Jax St and EKU have a chance to steal someone's bid. Jax just needs to win out. EKU needs to win out AND have E. Ill lose their next two, but beat Jax.
Patriot
Lafayette (3-0) (6-2) Princeton, Harvard - Colgate, @Holy Cross, @Lehigh
Lehigh (2-1) (6-2) Delaware, Holy Cross - Georgetown, @Fordham, Lafayette
Colgate (2-1) (5-3) C. Conn, Dartmouth, Lehigh - @Lafayette, Bucknell, @G'town
If Lafayette wins out, they are the lone team from Patriot
Lehigh is in automatically if they win out, but would probably be passed up if they're 8-3 based on SOS
Colgate can get the auto IF they win out AND Lehigh loses one
SoCon
Furman (3-1) (7-1) WCU - @GSU, Wofford, UT-Chatt
ASU (4-1) (6-2) Kansas, Furman - @LSU, WCU, @Elon
GSU (4-2) (6-3) McNeese St., Wofford, ASU - Furman, Morehead St
Wofford (3-2) (5-3) W.Va, UT-Chatt, ASU - @WCU, @Furman, @Gardner-Webb
WCU (3-2) (4-3) Cincy, Citadel, GSU - Wofford, @ASU
Furman is in with one loss, but maybe not with 2
ASU is in with one loss, but probably not with 2
GSU must win out
Wofford beat GSU and lost to a 1A and ASU, but they get no love. They need to win out to be considered and can get the auto in crazy scenario
WCU can get the auto in crazy scenario, winning out probably wouldnt be enough
Southland
McNeese (3-1) (4-2) So Miss, SE La - @Tex St, NW St., @Nicholls St.
Texas St. (2-1) (6-2) Tex AM, Nicholls St. - McNeese, @SFA, Sam Houston
NW St. (2-1) (4-3) ND St., La-Laf, Tex St. - Nicholls St., @McNeese, SFA
Nicholls St. (2-1) (3-3) Indiana, ND St., SFA - @NW St., @SE La, McNeese
All four of these teams control their own destiny for the auto except NW who needs Tex St. to lose 1. Texas St. can lose one and be a very good 8-3 at-large pick. NW St. is more on the bubble at 8-3 and Nicholls and McNeese would both be in serious trouble at 6-3 unless we have Katrina/Rita playoff relief.
At-Large-Only Teams
Coastal Carolina should be in at 10-1 with a loss to App St.
Cal-Poly has 3 quality losses to Troy St., Montana, and UC-Davis, but will need the autos to fall right to get in at 8-3
UC-Davis and North Dakota St. are ineligible for postseason because they moved up from D-II
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