Scouting the Bobcats...

[panther2317]

Well, here we are again and we're playing another very highly rated team that has a stellar QB, an elusive RB and a talented corps of receivers. I wanted to check out their stats and here's what I found: they dropped 31 points and almost 500 yards of offense on Texas A&M.

Texas State Bobcats [I](11-2, 6-1 Southland)
vs. Delta State 32-25 (7-4, 6-3) W OFF: 345/DEF: 205 (NCAA Division 2)
vs. Southern Utah 34-0 (1-9, 1-4) W OFF: 487/DEF: 183
@ Texas A&M 31-44 (5-6, 3-5) L OFF: 493/DEF: 559
vs. S.D. State 42-12 (6-5, 3-2) W OFF: 473/DEF: 246
@ SE Louisiana 30-15 (4-6, 2-4)W OFF: 393/DEF: 294
vs. Panhandle St. 75-7 (1-9) W OFF: 355/DEF: 95 (NCAA Division 2)
vs. N'western St. (5-5, 3-3) 31-16 W OFF: 349/DEF: 282
@ Nicholls St. (6-4, 5-1) 29-32 OT L OFF: 367/DEF: 431
vs. McNeese St. (5-4, 4-3) 49-7 W OFF: 424/DEF 129
@ S.F. Austin 38-21 (5-6, 1-5) W OFF: 557/DEF: 339
vs. Sam Houston 26-23 (3-7, 2-4) W OFF: 439/DEF: 394
vs. Ga. Southern 50-35 (8-4, 5-2) W OFF: 594/DEF: 499
vs. Cal-Poly 14-7 (9-4, 4-2) W OFF: 467/DEF 263


Texas State's opponents have a season record of 65-67. Two fo those teams, Panhandle St. and Southern Utah were both, as you can see, 1-9 on the year. UNI's opponents have a season record of 82-65. If you're a stats guy/girl I guess that means we've played a tougher schedule and I hope it pays off next Friday. TSU is averaging right around 415 yards per game on offense and giving up about 280 yards per game. The Bobcats average 34.6 points per game and give up an average of 17.5 points per game. An first glance, it looks as if they have a stingy defense and an efficient offense, their QB has thrown for around 2,500 yards and also rushed for over 1,000 yards.

Didn't notice this before, but they lost to Nicholls St. 32-29 in OT for their one and only conference loss this season. Did anyone else notice that Nicholls (who got the automatic bid from the Southland) only played 9 regular season games and finished 6-3? I'm going to assume they had a game or two cancelled due to the hurricanes this fall? Looks like a few of their conference teams just cancelled games this season, I know Sam Houston cancelled their game with Missouri State due to hurricanes this season.

[CF Panther]

It's also interesting that the Bobcats did not have a "good win" until the first round of the playoffs! Close loss to a so-so NSU team and a respectable loss at A&M (when A&M still looked decent...). Clearly the team must have improved throughout the course of the season, and are still improving during the playoffs. Looking at the result of the first game of the season makes you wonder how these guys are seeded! Delta State gave them all they could handle. The QB for them seems pretty inconsistent from the couple of their games I've seen. He's either spot on accurate or awful passing. He's good at scrambling though. The way I see it is that TXSU does not have quite the offense of EWU or UNH, but they have a better defense. Here's hoping that the Panthers can get up for another tough one on Friday. I could see this game going either way. Another note is that their kicker seems to have struggled this season on overall field goal accuracy. He has similar statistics to Wingert, but Wingert has been money since the WKU game!

My Early Week Prediction:

UNI 31
TXSU 21

[beamout2000]

You are correct about the hurricanes cancelling games within our conference. Nicholls is close to New Orleans and that's why they played one fewer game. Same reason for most of the Louisianna schools in our conference. The Sam Houston cancellation was due to hurricane Rita. Most of Sam's facilities were being used that weekend for hurricane evacuees from the Houston area. That's why our game with A&M was moved up from Saturday to Thursday that week.
Nicholls beat us in overtime but actually dominated us with their ball control option offense up until the third quarter. Our offense then went on a tear and we actually took the lead late in the fourth but our defense had a heck of a time stopping that offense. We had the same problem most of the game with Georgia Southern who runs a similar offense but finally figured it out by the third quarter and shut them down. Cal-Poly also runs an option with a little more passing thrown in. I would say we did some detailed film study and finally figured out how to shut down the option because Poly never really got anything going, with exception of the one touchdown drive, because our defense played some tremendous ball.
On offense for us everything runs through Neeley. On defense everything stops with Fred Evans. No one including the great running teams have been able to move up the middle on us this year because of Evans. Running the corners has been effective until this past week when we stopped Poly from doing that as well. Our pass defense has also improved greatly over the past few games. We gave up some stuff we shouldn't have with GSU but not against Poly.

[Bleed Gold]

The hurricanes did a real number on the Southland Conference, directly affecting about half the teams.

Delta was our warm-up game where we were still getting everything clicking together. Like many teams, we got better as the season went on. In the case of Nicholls, we just didn't adjust fast enough to the option (a very common problem in NCAA and why that offense is so successful). If you take a look at the box score for that game, you'll see that once we caught on about midway through the 3rd quarter, we had it down. Georgia Southern ran the same offense and we shut it down when we needed to. Cal-Poly ran the 4th generation of that offense and we handled it with relative ease.

So, when it comes to scouting, don't let our perceived weakness for the option fool you. We've gotten progressively better at defending it, with the Cal-Poly game showing how well we've adapted. In general, our defense does not have any weaknesses, so ya'll really have to find a way to keep our score down.

Our offense's weaknesses are few and far between. We are very hard to scout and anticipate because our offense morphs from week to week. Some days we go to an old-school-cram-it-down-their-throats game, while others we go pass-happy with what I would call a play action spread, and everything in between. We'll even do an option offense if that's what works. Our offense is versatile enough that it simply adapts to whatever the opposing team defense's weaknesses are. Just from a quick look at rankings, I'd expect us to be more on the pass-happy side for this game.

I've pretty much decided to stop predicting scores in the playoffs because I don't know near enough about the other teams now to make an educated prediction. Just based on what I know about both teams so far, I'm going to say the score is within 8 points. If ya'll win, I'd say a score something like 20-17. If we win, I'd say a score like 31-20.

I will say this--I've yet to see a team truly shut down our offense. Cal-Poly somehow managed to stop us from scoring, but we still racked up somewhere in the neighborhood of 550 total yards. Nealy will have all week to get used to throwing a frozen football and both teams will be used to the cold at that point, so weather shouldn't be a factor unless we get some precipitation.

I expect a great game (and a win for us, naturally)! I sure wish ya'll could be down here for a warm game; it's hard to appreciate the beautiful ladies of Texas State when they're covered in overcoats!

At this point in the season, there are no bad teams and there shouldn't be nosebleed-high scores.

[igo4uni]

I will say this--I've yet to see a team truly shut down our offense.

I don't think UNI is going to shut down your offense, either. I think UHN put up around 1,700 yards on us. I think it's safe to say that UNI relies on the "bend, don't break" defensive principle.

peace

igo4uni

[Newsbreaker]

One note from looking at the schedule posted...much like UNH, they really haven't played anybody, at least not until the playoffs. Nichols State is a good team, but other then that, there isn't an SIU, a WKU or even a YSU amoung them, with the other exception being A&M (who, by the way, aren't half the team Iowa is.)

Statistically we might be the 'weakest' team left, but I think that's in large part a product of equal parts ballance and schedule.

[Gilgamesh]

At this point in the season with just 4 teams left, I think schedules and stats are out the window. Scout your opponents schemes and lock up on Saturday (or in this case Friday).

Best of luck for an exciting and injury-free game on both sides of the line.

In the parking lot, we all win!

www.atatailgate.com

Gil

[igo4uni]

www.atatailgate.com

Gil

Holy Crap, what a great link!!!!!!!!!!

Is Cap'n Cat the founder of that fine association???????

peace

igo4uni

[JayJ79]

In the parking lot, we all win!

And *you* can count, on *me*, waiting for *you* in the parking lot.
(before the game, for tailgating, that is. heh)

[Gilgamesh]

Hello UNI Fans,

I am the founder, President and CEO of the American Tailgaters Association www.atatailgate.com (and Texas State alum). I travel all over the country to tailgate parties and that is how I have gotten to see all the great UNI fans in action. While we are based in San Antonio, we typically are on the road most weekends somewhere around the country.

Check us out and give us some feedback. We are currently making a number of changes to the website and I would love to add some UNI tailgating links to the site.

Best of luck in your travels and let's have a great game.

Great Tailgating,

John Largent, President/CEO
American Tailgaters Association

In the parking lot, we all win!

[Panther FANatic]

Job Offer?

Hello UNI Fans,

I am the founder, President and CEO of the American Tailgaters Association www.atatailgate.com (and Texas State alum). I travel all over the country to tailgate parties and that is how I have gotten to see all the great UNI fans in action. While we are based in San Antonio, we typically are on the road most weekends somewhere around the country.

Check us out and give us some feedback. We are currently making a number of changes to the website and I would love to add some UNI tailgating links to the site.

Best of luck in your travels and let's have a great game.

Great Tailgating,

John Largent, President/CEO
American Tailgaters Association

In the parking lot, we all win!

OK I have a deal for you... How about if UNI wins you offer me a job I have heard I am one great tailgater?

[panther2317]

I'd love to work for him...if you could pay me around $45,000/year plus travel expenses, I think I could commit myself to traveling the country and ranking different schools and their taligating experience I think I've found the perfect job

[Gilgamesh]

I have to admit, I'm living my dream job. I was a hospital administrator for close to 15 years before my great transformation. I had to convince my wife of this (yes, she is a saintly woman). We now have corporate sponsors, mobile marketing team and I get to travel to sporting events across the US and Canada, tailgate and buy prime tickets to all the games I want to see...and write it all off as a business expense....Only in America, I love my job! I will send out your applications ASAP!

Best of luck to UNI this weekend and travel safely.

Great Tailgating,

John Largent aka Gil

[UNI MadCat]

OK I have a deal for you... How about if UNI wins you offer me a job I have heard I am one great tailgater?

I can attest to this... they thru a great tailgate outside the Dome two weeks ago in the friggin cold!!! Although... we had the Christmas tree... its tough to top that!!

[UNI MadCat]

Gilgamesh... you're the envy of every man (and many women too!) on this board!!