Lets assume we go 2-1 the rest of the way...

[UNI MadCat]

NOTE: I still think we have a great chance at 3-0 but for sake of curiosity and argument, I thought of the 2-1 situation as well.

I was curious if there were still a number of scenarios in which we claim the auto-bid even if we go 2-1 down the stretch. Someone needs to double-check my compilation down here but I think what I'm seeing is that all is not lost if we do lose a game... it just can basically only be the game @ SIU. HOWEVER, if you look at the likely scenarios I really don't think it is that out of the realm of possibility that SIU would lose @ YSU and the same with YSU @ WKU. In fact, that scenario is VERY likely.

Here are the scenarios that we tie for the top and the subsequent outcomes of those ties. Someone let me know if I missed any.

Scenario 1 -- No playoffs I believe
L vs WKU
W @ SIU
W vs IlSU
----
YSU loses to SIU
WKU loses to YSU
4-way tie for conf title and we go 2-1 in the round robin (YSU, WKU, IlSU).
Il State eliminated due to 1-2 record
YSU eliminated due to 1-2 record
WKU is 2-1 so its goes to head-to-head and, unfortunately they get the auto-bid assuming that's how the ties are broken.

Scenario 2 -- No playoffs I believe
W vs WKU
L @ SIU
W vs IlSU
----
YSU loses to SIU
WKU loses to YSU
4-way tie for conf title and we go 2-1 in round robin (YSU, IlSU, SIU).
IlSU is eliminated due to 1-2 record
YSU is eliminated due to 1-2 record
SIU is 2-1 so its goes to head-to-head and, unfortunately they get the auto-bid assuming that's how the ties are broken.

Scenario 3 -- PLAYOFFS!!
W vs WKU
L @ SIU
W vs IlSU
----
SIU loses to YSU
YSU loses to WKU
4-way tie for conf title and we go 3-0 in round robin (YSU, WKU, IlSU) and therefore get the auto-bid.

Scenario 4 -- Probably not worth looking into as a tie scenario only happens if IlSt loses to MSU or InSU.
W vs WKU
W @ SIU
L vs IlSU

[joecooll6]

Ive thought about it too. Not because I am pessimistic but because I am a sports dork and these type of things are interesting to me. I think its distinctly possible to go to playoffs if we lose to SIU. We would need both SIU and YSU to lose another game however (they do still have to play each other). If we lose either of the other games playoffs would take a lot of extra good luck.

[Flagship Girl]

I think Gary laid all this out on his show last night...I got kind of confused by his explanation though, so I can't recount what he said specifically, but he was even saying that if we happened to lose all three of the last games (I think) we could still somehow get in, if I remember right. Or something like that.

Can you tell I don't quite get it???

[Chitown Panther]

I think Gary laid all this out on his show last night...I got kind of confused by his explanation though, so I can't recount what he said specifically, but he was even saying that if we happened to lose all three of the last games (I think) we could still somehow get in, if I remember right. Or something like that.

Can you tell I don't quite get it???

IF we are 5-6.......mathematically maybe.....but I would bet my Net Worth that we are sitting at home watching on tv.....

[Panthers to the Bone]

There's no way we can get in and lose out. Illinois State would beat us, and that in itself would give them one more win than UNI and thus not enable UNI to make the playoffs.

[joecooll6]

not to mention we'd be 3-4 in the conference, which means someone would have to be above .500

[OH BABY! I luv this team!]

I think Gary laid all this out on his show last night...I got kind of confused by his explanation though, so I can't recount what he said specifically, but he was even saying that if we happened to lose all three of the last games (I think) we could still somehow get in, if I remember right. Or something like that.

Can you tell I don't quite get it???

Flagship, WOW, you didn' listen at all if you are coming on here and saying that the Sports Guy said we could lose all three and still get in somehow! I think everyone pretty well knows that if we go 5-6 we are sitting home with our families and watching the playoffs on TV!

Here is what I talked about:

UNI gets the auto berth from Gateway by winning out, so UNI controls it own destiny going into the final three games but must win all three to claim the berth and title and then I explained how UNI could actually lose one more game and still get the auto berth but you don't want to do that because than you are looking for help from another team to beat someone to get you in where you can control your own destiny with three straight wins and don't need help from anyone!
Below is my example of how UNI gets into playoffs as Gateway auto berth team with one more loss!
UNI can still get in as the automatic qualifer out of the Gateway with one more loss but it can ONLY be to SIU and must have Youngstown beat SIU this week and Western Kentucky beat YSU in week 11. If that happens and UNI beats WKU and ILL St then UNI, WKU, YSU and ILL St all finish 5-2 (thats figuring that Ill state beats Ind. St and Mo. st) and we get the auto berth since we beat the three teams we would be tied with at 5-2. The sure way to get in is win out and go 6-1 and we are in with an 8-3/6-1 record as the gateway automatic berth. This is an elimination game this weekend, or so it appears, for both UNI and WKU.
That is what I talked about on Monday and that is my story and I am sticking to it!

[Luther_Heggs]

Gary -

Thanks for the explanation. I am very concerned that a 8-3 UNI team that does not win the Gateway will not get in the playoffs. Although, with this conference, I am not sure how an 8-3 UNI team will not win the Gateway. I do not have the energy right now to draw it all up on the board right now.

YSU - Did anyone else watch their game against Illinois State? YSU looked like a top five team! They absolutely dominated that game. I am glad that game is behind UNI.

I am not upset about the WIU game...they are a good team. A couple fluke plays here and there are the only way they have lost three or four of their games this year. Besides...just like UNI and YSU...WIU always matches up well with UNI.

I must say it again...I watched the internet broadcast last week and...It is soooo nice to watch the game with Scott and you doing the broadcast!

Question for anyone out there...did Cap'n make it to the game?

[GonzoCat]

Cap'n did not make it to the game due to some personal issues. Your old pal Oldcat or Cap'n himself can fill you in on the details.

[joecooll6]

Luther, if we go 8-3 we will win the conference, its a mathematical certainty.

[JayJ79]

just thought I'd throw together a table of sorts with the current contenders for the gateway bid, their records, remaining games, and the relevant results of games played so far. I find it easier to have it all listed in one spot when thinking through the different scenarios.

team (conf., o'all) [remaining schedule] {relevant w/l}
YSU (5-1, 8-2) [@WKU, off] {W: IlSt, SIU. L: UNI}
UNI (4-1, 6-3) [@SIU, IlSt] {W: YSU, WKU. L:}
IlSt (4-1, 7-2) [@InSt, @UNI] {W: WKU, SIU. L: YSU}
WKU (4-2, 5-4) [YSU, Austin P.] {W: SIU. L: IlSt, UNI}
SIU (3-3, 6-3) [UNI, S. Utah] {W: . L: IlSt, WKU, YSU}

[Panthers to the Bone]

So far, scenario 3 and 4 are still plausible. Hopefully, scenario 'win out' happens. BTW, the playoff outlook has been updated today.

[JayJ79]

during the talk of the various scenarios, I became curious as to what the tiebreaker criteria were for determining the auto-bid, though I couldn't seem to find it at the time. But today's WCF Courier had part of an article about it, so I figured I'd post it, in case others were curious.

Two-team tie (conf. record): Head-to-head results between the tied teams

Three-team tie:
1) Comparison of cumulative records involving games with the tied teams. For example, if a team is 2-0 against the other tied teams, that team will get the automatic bid.
2) If the tied teams have identical records against the other tied teams, then each team's record against the next-highest finishing team in the league standings (not including the tied teams) will be used to determine the automatic bid.
3) If the three-way tie cannot be broken by the above two criteria, lots will be drawn.

[UNIPNTHR]

Wow... leaving it to the short straw. That's not cool. I hope we just win out and settle this junk.

[Panthers to the Bone]

Straight up 'Friday Night Lights' style!