Valley Predictions

[Pantherman2]

Now that most of the non-conference games are over, how do you guys see the order of finish in the conference at the end of the year? I have a feeling UNI will surprise some people.

[Panthers#1]

Re: Valley Predictions

Well I don't know much about the rest of the conference but let me take a stab at it.
1. CU
2. ISU (red)
3. DU
4. UE
5. SIU
6. WSU
7. MSU
8. UNI
9. BU
10. ISU (blue)

As far as UNI goes, they haven't done anything to really impress me and so far they have shown me that they are a Thursday play-in team. Hopefully I am wrong and they will surprise people but right now, they haven't done anything to make me think otherwise.

[Panthers to the Bone]

Re: Valley Predictions

If UNI has any other MVC schedule, how do they fair? How does Other MVC teams do with UNI's schedule? I have not been impressed with Valley teams challenging themselves outside of SIU, Indiana State, Wichita, Bradley, and UNI...especially on the road. I think we are seeing Creighton and Illinois State with their experienced guards rise to the top (which is to be expected). Evansville is down to a 7 man rotation already (with mostly vets), so they seem to be gelling earlier. Creighton dropped a couple early games on the road, but have since been able to play more at home and get on a roll. Same goes for Missouri State.

[Panthers to the Bone]

Re: Valley Predictions

OK, so the family is all taking naps, so I have some time to put this together.

This is based on realtimerpi.com's RPI ratings. I had to have some sort of 'objective' measure to rank all of the 300+ teams. If I have time, I'll try to get Ken Pom's ratings.

Best wins by team---ranked by best RPI win:
Evansville (#28 Western Kentucky)
Creighton (#39 Dayton)
Wichita State (#49 Siena)
Illinois State (#53 Illinois-Chicago)
Bradley (#53 Illinois-Chicago)
Drake (#62 Iowa)
Indiana State (#82 Lamar)
UNI (#88 Auburn)
Missouri State (#107 Arkansas)
Southern Illinois (#191 UMass)

Best Non-Home Win
Wichita State (#49 vs. Siena)
Creighton (#70 @ St. Joseph's)
Indiana State (#82 vs. Lamar)
UNI (#88 vs. Auburn)
Drake (#146 vs. New Mexico)
Bradley (#183 vs. Richmond)
Illinois State (#198 @ Wright State)
Missouri State (#278 @ Central Michigan)
Southern Illinois (#322 @ Northern Illinois)
Evansville (no road/neutral wins)

Best true road win (followed by true road record)
Creighton (#70 @ St. Joseph's, 1-2)
Drake (#176 @ Iowa State, 1-0)
Illinois State (#198 @ Wright State, 3-0)
Bradley (#292 @ Florida Gulf Coast, 1-3)
Missouri State (#278 @ Central Michigan, 1-2)
Southern Illinois (#322 @ Northern Illinois, 1-2)
Evansville (no true road wins, 0-2)
Wichita State (no true road wins, 0-2)
UNI (no true road wins, 0-3)
Indiana State (no true road wins, 0-5)

[Panther Cat]

Re: Valley Predictions

At the start of the season I though UNI had the talent to finish around 3rd. While I do still think they have that talent and the league being down, I just don't see that happening right now though.

1. Creighton - Look like the top of the class again. A lot of depth.
2. Illinoins State - Still haven't played anyone, but they've proved they can win.
3. Drake - Staring to play well again, even though that S.F.A. loss is a killer.
4. Bradley - Starting to play a lot better.
5. UNI - This isn't a real stretch to think they could end up here, need to win some road games though.
6. Evansville - Still haven't beaten anyone better then them, but look to be decent with their top 5/6 guys.
7. Southern Illinois - Haven't looked good yet this year, but you know they will win almost every home game.
8. Wichita State - Played some good teams tough and beat some teams they should have.
9. Missouri State - Have played a lot better than I thought they would, but still haven't beaten anyone who is good.
10. Indiana State - They just aren't very good right now

[joecooll6]

Re: Valley Predictions

1.Illinois State- After finishing 2nd last year, and just missing out on the tourney I think this is the year the Redbirds pull through for that MVC Title. I could say this with more confidence if they had played anyone challenging to this point which they havent, but I am gonna go with the Birds by a nose over......

2. Creighton- After a year in which most of their players were young and inexperienced the Blue Jays are primed for a solid MVC season. They started slow but have since gone on a roll and are playing very well right now.

3. Drake- After dominating the Valley last season, Josh Young and the remnants of what remains from last year will be able to pull into a solid third place finish in the Valley this year. I've only seen them play vs. Iowa and vs. Iowa State, but what I saw looked pretty solid.

4. Southern Illinois- They dont have a very good record right now, and they have had some disappointing losses, but I just have a hard time seeing the Salukis at the bottom of the league. They are always somewhere in the mix at the end of the season and I just don't see this being any different. Winning a vast majority of your home games helps.

5. Wichita State- What a tough schedule the Shockers have had! I think it will serve them well come Valley play, and they will avoid the play-in round and finish in the top half of the conference.

6. Evansville- I dont know what to think about the Purple Aces. They were very, very bad last year but have put together a nice little non confernece run. Most of their wins are of the cream puff variety but they have a nice one over Western Kentucky.

7. Bradley- They have had some tough losses, but they have had a tough schedule. Should serve them well a la Wichita State but not good enough to avoid Thursday in St. Louis.

8. Northern Iowa- I really wanted to put the Panthers in the top 6, but after seeing some of our games this season I have a hard time doing it. If we can't hit open shots teams will bog down our bigs and we just flat out wont win many games.

9. Missouri State- New coach, rebuilding season, tough road for the Bears.

10. Indiana State- Just recently beat a D3 team by 6.

I would have felt comfortable with ILSU, CU and DU in any order in the top three. I also feel that 4-9 is a crapshoot with SIU, WSU, UE, BU, UNI and MSU and the only clear spot right now is INSU at the 10.

[Newshound]

Re: Valley Predictions

Southern Illinois will be much better in MVC play than its record right now. There are no Dukes or UCLAs in the Valley. Plus, despite their youth, they're going to go at least 7-2 at home in the Valley. If you do that and win a couple road games, you're looking at least the middle of the pack.

UNI has to play a little more consistent on the road for me to believe it can finish in the upper half. I probably have Bradley picked a lot lower than other people, but Andrew Warren probably will take a redshirt (a big loss for them) and it is relying on a lot of young guys. Wichita State could finish better than where I have them, but the Shockers do have 10 players in their first year of Division I basketball.

Regardless, it's going to be a heck of a league race, and it all starts TOMORROW!

Here's my projected order:
1. Creighton
2. Illinois State
3. Drake
4. Evansville
5. Southern Illinois
6. Northern Iowa
7. Wichita State
8. Bradley
9. Missouri State
10. Indiana State

MVC Player of Year:
If Creighton wins league: Booker Woodfox
If Illinois State wins league: Osiris Eldridge

[Panthers to the Bone]

Re: Valley Predictions

Updated Sagarin/KenPom/RPI rankings for the MVC.

Sagarin:
44-Creighton
58-Illinois State
70-Evansville
85-Drake
103-SIU
117-Missouri State
127-Bradley
128-Wichita State
172-UNI
267-Indiana State

KenPom-
54- Creighton
68- Evansville
77- Illinois State
86- Drake
100-Wichita State
111-SIU
131-Missouri State
172-Bradley
195-UNI
281-Indiana State

RealTimeRPI.Com
22-Evansville
60-Creighton
79-Illinois State
88-Bradley
108-Drake
121-Missouri State
155-UNI
169-SIU
191-Wichita State
286-Indiana State

[Panther Cat]

Re: Valley Predictions

I will now take my foot directly from my mouth for saying how bad Indiana State was. Well I do still think they aren't that good, they definetly outplayed us most of the game. So that means we are worse than I thought.

Maybe Jake should use that little full court pressure the whole game to give our team some energy. Because when we try to play straigh up we don't show half as much energy.

[PantherHawk]

Re: Valley Predictions

gonna be a long year if we can win at home! I don't care who you are, if you can't win at home, you are not going to be a very good team!

Ever since we moved from the Dome, we have lost our Home Court Advantage! Playing in the dome played with players minds and really gave us a fighting chance to win!

Now in the new arena we are barely winning at home!

I predicited 12 wins for this team in conference, but after watching last nights game I am gonna go wtih 6 maybe 7! they are not a good team!