We WILL be in the NCAA tournament

[Panther789]

I'm usually one of the people jumping off the deep end after a bad loss, but I think those of you suggesting we now have to win the MVC tournament are way off.

Last night was a horrible loss for a bunch of reasons, but I think we are fine, and we only need 2 more wins at most to secure a bid.

1. We still have an RPI of 22. As long as we snag a couple of more wins, we should be able to keep it at 30 or better. Remember, at this point in the year, a ton of data makes up your RPI ranking, so its unlikely to make a huge jump in either direction after a game or two.

2. We are going to end up with some wins over NCAA tournament teams. 2 years ago, ISU had zero.

Siena is a huge favorite to win its conference tournament (which they host I believe), and we blew them out.

ODU is in pretty good shape for an at-large bid. Remember, ODU won at G-Town and that win is going to carry a ton of weight. ODU hosts VCU before its conference tournament. A win over VCU and a win or 2 in its conference tournament and ODU will be sitting pretty.

Assuming we lose in the MVC tournament, we will have at least 1 win over the MVC champion, and in many cases, possibly 2.

[We're4UNI]

Re: We WILL be in the NCAA tournament

I'm usually one of the people jumping off the deep end after a bad loss, but I think those of you suggesting we now have to win the MVC tournament are way off.

Last night was a horrible loss for a bunch of reasons, but I think we are fine, and we only need 2 more wins at most to secure a bid.

1. We still have an RPI of 22. As long as we snag a couple of more wins, we should be able to keep it at 30 or better. Remember, at this point in the year, a ton of data makes up your RPI ranking, so its unlikely to make a huge jump in either direction after a game or two.

2. We are going to end up with some wins over NCAA tournament teams. 2 years ago, ISU had zero.

Siena is a huge favorite to win its conference tournament (which they host I believe), and we blew them out.

ODU is in pretty good shape for an at-large bid. Remember, ODU won at G-Town and that win is going to carry a ton of weight. ODU hosts VCU before its conference tournament. A win over VCU and a win or 2 in its conference tournament and ODU will be sitting pretty.

Assuming we lose in the MVC tournament, we will have at least 1 win over the MVC champion, and in many cases, possibly 2.

I like your thinking...nice and positive!

[in_the_stands]

Re: We WILL be in the NCAA tournament

Hope you're right. But if we don't win the tournament, it means another loss to a low RPI team, and a reason for the big school partisans on the selection committee to snub us in favor of one of their mid level teams.

As to our own RPI- just ask a MSU fan.

[UNIAlum95]

Re: We WILL be in the NCAA tournament

As to our own RPI- just ask a MSU fan.

Not applicable here. The MSU situation is not the same as where we are at today.

[TH1974]

Re: We WILL be in the NCAA tournament

Hope you're right. But if we don't win the tournament, it means another loss to a low RPI team, and a reason for the big school partisans on the selection committee to snub us in favor of one of their mid level teams.

This.



.

[06panther10]

Re: We WILL be in the NCAA tournament

I posted this in the game thread, Doug Gottleib said that we are still in despite this loss.

As long as we don't choke at home and embarass ourselves in STL, we will be fine IMO.

[joecooll6]

Re: We WILL be in the NCAA tournament

I'm pleasantly surprised that our RPI only fell to 22 after the loss. And, someone pointed out were still 3-1 against the Top 50 and 8-1 against the Top 100. Three terrible, terrible losses though.

We certainly have to win the last game, and Illinois State is probably playing the best basketball in the Valley right now. Then we have to win at least one in St. Louis.

[Chitown Panther]

Re: We WILL be in the NCAA tournament

I'm pleasantly surprised that our RPI only fell to 22 after the loss. And, someone pointed out were still 3-1 against the Top 50 and 8-1 against the Top 100. Three terrible, terrible losses though.

We certainly have to win the last game, and Illinois State is probably playing the best basketball in the Valley right now. Then we have to win at least one in St. Louis.

I don't know anything about basketball.....but I'm still struggling with the DePaul loss as TERRIBLE. The game was played in November and 3 plane flights away.....

These lines from the game article says alot:
ST. THOMAS, Virgin Islands -- Jeremiah Kelly had a career-high 18 points and eight rebounds and DePaul closed with a 20-6 run to beat Northern Iowa 60-52 on Friday in the first round of the Paradise Jam.


Mac Koshwal added 12 points and 19 rebounds to help the Blue Demons (2-0) advance to the semifinals Sunday against No. 10 Tennessee, a 105-66 winner over East Carolina.
-----------------------------

Also, losing to DePaul also allowed us to beat ECU and BC. If we beat DePaul....HIGH probability we would have been spanked by Tenn....as they were playing some great ball in Nov/Dec.....

[joecooll6]

Re: We WILL be in the NCAA tournament

I don't know anything about basketball.....but I'm still struggling with the DePaul loss as TERRIBLE. The game was played in November and 3 plane flights away.....

These lines from the game article says alot:
ST. THOMAS, Virgin Islands -- Jeremiah Kelly had a career-high 18 points and eight rebounds and DePaul closed with a 20-6 run to beat Northern Iowa 60-52 on Friday in the first round of the Paradise Jam.


Mac Koshwal added 12 points and 19 rebounds to help the Blue Demons (2-0) advance to the semifinals Sunday against No. 10 Tennessee, a 105-66 winner over East Carolina.
-----------------------------
Also, losing to DePaul also allowed us to beat ECU and BC. If we beat DePaul....HIGH probability we would have been spanked by Tenn....as they were playing some great ball in Nov/Dec.....

A loss to Tennessee is no big deal. A loss to DePaul is terrible smudge on our resume.

[jman2004]

Re: We WILL be in the NCAA tournament

I don't know anything about basketball.....but I'm still struggling with the DePaul loss as TERRIBLE. The game was played in November and 3 plane flights away.....

These lines from the game article says alot:
ST. THOMAS, Virgin Islands -- Jeremiah Kelly had a career-high 18 points and eight rebounds and DePaul closed with a 20-6 run to beat Northern Iowa 60-52 on Friday in the first round of the Paradise Jam.


Mac Koshwal added 12 points and 19 rebounds to help the Blue Demons (2-0) advance to the semifinals Sunday against No. 10 Tennessee, a 105-66 winner over East Carolina.
-----------------------------

Also, losing to DePaul also allowed us to beat ECU and BC. If we beat DePaul....HIGH probability we would have been spanked by Tenn....as they were playing some great ball in Nov/Dec.....

I agree with you 100%. We play them again today, I think we could take 'em.

But . . . I don't see Selection Committee members digging into the stats for one particular UNI/Depaul game back from November, the way that you did.

Bottom line: We lost. Depaul is not good.

[williebat]

Re: We WILL be in the NCAA tournament

If we do not win the valley tourney I am rooting for Evansville!!!

[Hail Our Panthers]

Re: We WILL be in the NCAA tournament

It's unfortunate we had to play Depaul that day. They were hot that weekend and went on to lose to Tennessee by just 4 and then beat St. Joe. It's also unfortunate that they went on to lose the Kawshal kid and have as bad of a season as they have because now that loss does look horrible.

[MeOW!]

Re: We WILL be in the NCAA tournament

If we do not win the valley tourney I am rooting for Evansville!!!

I disagree. I am staying at the Evansville team hotel in St. Louis and was hoping they would all clear out by Friday.

[TommyT]

Re: We WILL be in the NCAA tournament

If we do not win the valley tourney I am rooting for Evansville!!!

If we could get a rematch against Evansville and blow them out by 15+ in the tourney, that could go a long way to helping this loss look not as bad. If Evansville gets blown out on Thursday

[UNI Prof]

Re: We WILL be in the NCAA tournament

We will win Saturday. If we win Friday, we are in.