3 Seed?

[panthercy]

Are we pretty much guaranteed the 3 seed with a win tomorrow night, because even if we lose to Creighton on Saturday and In St beat Southern and we end up tied I believe it goes it head to head which we would split, then isnt it some sort of pt system???? With us beat the top 2 teams on the road I would assume we would have the edge there?

[TravelingPanther]

Re: 3 Seed?

It's non-conf SOS. I think we take that, so a win tomorrow takes the three seed.

[achrist70]

Re: 3 Seed?

I am pretty sure we are at least assured of the 5 seed because of strength of schedule of Evansville.

[TravelingPanther]

Re: 3 Seed?

If we're not the 3, I'm not sure it matters. Last time I saw, math geeks showed we had a 1% chance of the 6 seed. We do NOT want Creighton a week from Friday.

[panthercy]

Re: 3 Seed?

It's non-conf SOS. I think we take that, so a win tomorrow takes the three seed.

oh ok whoops, so it is pretty close, but I think we have the edge in that as well?

[jegbomb52]

Re: 3 Seed?

You would be surprised, last week (I know GM helped a ton) we were significantly behind Evansville and Indiana State. MVCFans.com had a breakdown this morning from ESPN showing us 32 spots behind InSU in NC SOS, we were 170, they were 138. We must win out to be the 3 seed. If not, its 4/5.

[06panther10]

Re: 3 Seed?

These are the numbers from the UNI release today.

Non-Conference Strength of Schedule
(as of Feb. 20, 2011 - Collegiate Basketball News)
Wichita State 57
Indiana State 142
Evansville 159
UNI 171
Missouri State 190
Creighton 221
Southern Illinois 235
Bradley 278
Drake 281
Illinois State 335

[jegbomb52]

Re: 3 Seed?

These are the numbers from the UNI release today.

The site they use has us at 170, and them at 138. We will not pass them.

[panthercy]

Re: 3 Seed?

yikes, i guess looks more like the 4 seed then

[BCPanther]

Re: 3 Seed?

Or we win both games this week. I know its a crazy thought

[Kyle]

Re: 3 Seed?

We will be facing CU or Evansville in the 4-5 game.

If my logic is correct we can face Evansville two ways.

1) CU loses both remaining games (vs WSU and vs UNI). Evansville wins both remaining games (vs Drake and vs ISUred).
#4 UNI 11-7
#5 EU 10-8
#6 CU 9-9

2) CU loses to WSU and beats UNI. Evansville wins both remaining games. This puts CU, UNI, and EU all tied for 4th with UNI getting the SOS tiebreaker.
#4 EU 10-8
#5 UNI 10-8
#6 CU 10-8

I really think the second scenario is the most probable, which gets be excited, because I really don't want to face CU on Friday.

[Kyle]

Re: 3 Seed?

I am wrong. CU holds the head to head tiebreaker with EU, so the only way we face EU in the 4-5 match-up is in scenario #1.

In fact, scenario #2 may put us in the 6 seed. CU wins the tiebreaker with EU due to head to head results, and EU wins the tiebreaker with us due to SOS standings. But we win the tiebreaker with CU due to SOS standings. I'm now sufficiently confused.

[WSUbballer]

Re: 3 Seed?

If there is a 3-way tie, the first tiebreaker goes to the best round robin record between the 3 teams. I dunno all of the records between the teams. But if you figure them all out, that is the first tiebreaker. If there is a tie after that, it goes to SOS.

[UNIGrainer]

Re: 3 Seed?

OK, here's my take. I could be wrong.

If Crayton beats WSU, they could still theoretically catch ISU Blue, but would likely lose the SOS tiebreak. We would lose a tiebreak to ISU Blue as well. So its safe to assume ISU Blue will be 3. If UE loses loses to Drake or Illinois State, they cannot catch UNI anymore, and cant catch CU because of the head-to-head, so they would be 6 seed.

So if CU beats WSU, it will be us vs Crayton in the 4v5, and if UE loses again it will be us vs. CU in the 4v5 regardless of what happens. Also, even if CU loses tomorrow and UE wins its last two games, and then CU beats UNI, CU winds up the 4, UNI the 5 and UE the 6 due to head-to-head, and we still wind up playing Crayton.

The only scenario in which we don't play Creighton is if WSU beats Crayton tomorrow, UE beats Drake, UE beats ISU Red and we beat Crayton. Then the standings would be.

4. UNI 11-7
5. UE 10-8
6. Crayton 9-9

[UNIGrainer]

Re: 3 Seed?

Also, I think that guarantees we will play in the 4v5 game as well.