Five bids for the MVC?

[ColoradoPanther]

I know, sounds crazy. I couldn't bring it up on my own without accusing myself of some homerism, but if the press starts hyping it, how can we ignore it?

Gregg Doyle at CBS Sportslines makes his point here:

http://www.sportsline.com/collegebasketball/story/9210455

And for those that want to back up his claim, vote in the poll they have near the bottom of the front page:

http://www.sportsline.com/collegebasketball

Five teams?? Wow, never could've dreamed up a Valley season like this one.....

[BCPanther]

It is a real possibility. If Missou St. gets hot. after they come to the Dome on Saturday night!!

[Panthers Win!!]

I love this quote: "Don't listen to analysts who question the validity of the Valley. They either went to Duke, or root for Duke, or have bad teeth."

I just don't see it. If RPI was used the answer would be probably but if the Selection Committee is true to their indication that they won't use the RPI as much this year that says to me that they are going to favor the BCS league schools more than they have in the past.

[GonzoCat]

No way the valley gets 5 bids. Right now it looks like we may be lucky to hang on to 4 which seemed like a sure thing a week ago when we had 4 in the top 25 RPI.

SUI has dropped a lot with 2 straight losses, MSU is actually higher than them now in the RPI. I hate to say this, but if we win at SUI they are probably NIT bound.

[ejacobson]

Just read this before coming to PN, I was laughing so hard I drew my professor from his office into the lab (oops). Wow, 5 bids would be amazing, and that comment about the duke alum, fan or bad teeth is PRICELESS!!!!1

[NJ Panther]

Here's by best attempt at this as an analytically minded grad student. There are 5 MVC games left for each team. Taking St. Louis out of the equation it seems a pretty good bet it will take 20 wins to get an at large. So thats 5 plus BracketBuster, but the only team that will really benefit from that is UNI. For MSU that would mean winning out, and for Creighton and SIU that would mean 4-1. WSU has 19 already and the Panthers have 20 (all records are not adjusted for DII games). I think both are locks unless they go 2-3, or have 2 bad losses. Neither team has a loss to a school with an RPI higher then 86 (thats Iowa State!), and both have quality wins. I'm not sure Creighton and SIU could survive 3-2 as easily because they both have horrendous losses (CU:136, 106, 236. SIU:174, 198, 98, DII). Creighton may have enough good wins, but SIU really does not (Creighton and WSU). SIU probably also has the roughest road left (Creighton, MSU, and UNI).
That schedule is why five probably is not going to happen without help in St. Louis. If MSU loses to SIU they're probably out. If MSU wins SIU really will need the other two, which will not be easy. Even with an MSU win there they still have UNI on the road and Creighton at home. If MSU wins all those they're likely in, but they then have caused three other contenders problems.

The moral: If that made sense to you you're smarter then me. If not, the moral really is that anything could happen, but what it would take to get 5 is difficulty mathematically at this point without help at the MVC tourny.

[panther2317]

Bracket Buster Saturday is looming very large for the Valley. If the Valley can make a good showing on national television winning all 5 games, then I think 5 bids is a possibility. If the Valley takes a nose dive that day, it may be lucky to get 3 bids.

As for the conference RPI, I think they Valley needs to go 8-2 to overtake the Big 12. That's also very important in my opinion.

[NJ Panther]

The bad part about the BracketBuster TV games is if the MVC goes 5-0 the comment will be "well, that was expected." If the MVC goes anything else the comment will be "well, maybe the MVC is'nt all that great." It is a good reminder that we all need to be BIG Valley fans that day

[ColoradoPanther]

I agree with 2317 though. Racking up the win column as each team nears 20 will be a great benefit.... even though the wins might be expected. I'd rather have the bracketbuster against lesser competition than not at all. If nothing else, shows some separation from other conferences.

Let's not kid ourselves though. This will be five tough games against hungry teams.

[GonzoCat]

I'm not sure how he figures Stanford should be the second team in from the PAC10 or that they could get 5 teams total. The only deserving team I see from that conference is UCLA, nobody else has the RPI except Arizona and how they get their RPI shows the formula is screwy, they barely have a winning record. It's great they've played a tough schedule, but you should still have to beat somebody.

[panther2317]

Seth Davis said at the half of the Oklahoma vs. Kansas game that, "even though the Pac-10 is rated the 7th best conference, I think they'll get 5 bids."

I just about fell out of my chair. If they get 5 bids, I can't see how the Valley won't either. Washington is showing how they are fairly pedestrian and Stanford and Arizona have underachieved all season long. History of a program should not be taken into consideration when choosing at-large bids for THIS season.

[ColoradoPanther]

I saw that comment by Davis, but he did give due to the Panthers and MVC in the same breath. And how about two 1-second highlights of Panthers in action while he talked?!!

I think this year's falter by the BCS conferences is leaving a lot of the analysts stuck like deer in headlights. If they can't talk about the Pac10 or other power conference fighting for 7-8 bids, they don't know what to discuss.

[Newsbreaker]

I saw that comment by Davis, but he did give due to the Panthers and MVC in the same breath. And how about two 1-second highlights of Panthers in action while he talked?!!

I think this year's falter by the BCS conferences is leaving a lot of the analysts stuck like deer in headlights. If they can't talk about the Pac10 or other power conference fighting for 7-8 bids, they don't know what to discuss.

In fairness to them, they don't get to see a lot of midmajor games. They probably can't see any of our Fox28 games, and the MVC package only has the tournament quality teams on in random intervals.

The BCS leagues they see as many games as they please, so it's much harder to really see and understand the mid-majors.

[NJ Panther]

It been my experience that announcers always give extra credit to the teams and conferences they are covering, which I can't say is inexcusable. I'd be pissed if a UNI game raved about other conferences and not the Valley. I'd take the comments during the Stanford game in that context, although don't be surprised if they get more teams in then the MVC based on name recognition.

[ceaser150]

I'm not sure how he figures Stanford should be the second team in from the PAC10 or that they could get 5 teams total. The only deserving team I see from that conference is UCLA, nobody else has the RPI except Arizona and how they get their RPI shows the formula is screwy, they barely have a winning record. It's great they've played a tough schedule, but you should still have to beat somebody.

The Pac-10 getting 5 bids makes no sense. Arizona is an interesting case because their RPI is so high. I think it is inflated, however, because they are the only team, besides Baylor and their abbreviated schedule, that played 0 teams with RPIs of 200+. Games against the likes of Savannah St drag down an RPI win or lose. However, can you really say they played a tough schedule just because they beat a bunch of 100-200 RPI teams?

Washington played a creampuff schedule with ZERO road games in their preseason.

Cal will likely get in if they can play decent ball down the stretch.

Overall, I think 3 teams in from the PAC-10 would be a stretch. Could you really look at any of the 3 teams above and say they deserve to be in ahead of Missouri St, Southern, or even Bradley?