Is the Valley going to beat itself out of a bid (or two?)

[Newsbreaker]

We're a couple weeks into the Valley season, and some of the "top" teams have had a chance to play each other. If anything, we know that there literally isn't a single bad team in the entire league. The Conference RPI remains high, and respect seems to be assumed by many. This is going to be an awfully tough league to win a lot of games in.

UNI stands as the lone undefeated, and with a lot of road games coming up quickly, that probably won't last for long.

WSU was the OOC "name" school in the league, ranked in the top-10. They stand at THREE league losses now, as does one of the pre-season favorites, in Bradley.

It seems likely that the top five or six teams, literally EVERY team avoiding the play-in game in STL, could all be within two or three games of each other, meaning a relatively "mediocre" winning percentage could grab that top seed.

Is the MVC so tough, it's going to beat itself out of extra NCAA bids, and high seeds, or is the level of respect enough that only a couple games over .500 will get a team a shot at a bid?

It seems like this is a popular time of year to "love" the MVC. When March 1 comes around, is a league of teams that beat on each other going to look "average" to the committee?

[JCPanthers]

WSU was the OOC "name" school in the league, ranked in the top-10. They stand at THREE league losses now, as does one of the pre-season favorites, in Bradley.

I'm thinking you meant Creighton...as Bradley was predicted to be down this year.

Anyway...the Valley will get 4 bids...maybe 5.

[Newsbreaker]

That is what I meant, my fault.

[Marc Wigim]

I'm with JC. Frankly, Wichita State is finding out that (save for a big LSU win) their OOC wasn't nearly as rigorous as they thought. Syracuse continues to give me a bad taste in my mouth, as I'm not all that sure their a contender. Yes, I'm aware that they were an NCAA team last year, but let's not forget that it took a Herculean run through their conference tournament to do so. Wichita State is good, but so is The Valley.

Look for Missouri State, Southern Illinois, UNI, and maybe two more teams to be punching a ticket to the dance at the end of the year if this trend continues.

[UNI MadCat]

Probably too early to tell but I posed this same question to my roommate last night NB.

[Newsbreaker]

As evidence, look at today's top-25 voting. In the AP polls, several valley schools are getting votes, with UNI leading the way.

In the coaches poll, however, only UNI and MSU are getting votes. Why? Because schools keep losing, it doesn't matter that they're losing to each other.

We all, as a league, better hope that the world doesn't decide that WSU's OOC schedule wasn't as tough as advertised, because other then MSU's win over Wisconsin, they're pretty much the only school that went and beat anybody this year.

I don't think ANYBODY is going to want to be the 4th team in the Valley pecking order this March.

[UNI MadCat]

I don't think ANYBODY is going to want to be the 4th team in the Valley pecking order this March.

Agreed. And yet in their little collective coaching circles, those BCS coaches all know how tough it is to play the MVC so, regardless of whether or not they are voting for our teams, it will be even tougher to schedule games against them.

You can't ever say that success if nipping us in the bud because its not true, but there could be a temporary adverse effect to the intraconference beatings some teams are taking to date.

Truthfully, if it were to only be 3 teams, it will become that much more imperative for them to succeed in March. That will help the league cross another hurdle.

[Chitown Panther]

Need someone to go to the sweet 16 again

[ceaser150]

As evidence, look at today's top-25 voting. In the AP polls, several valley schools are getting votes, with UNI leading the way.

In the coaches poll, however, only UNI and MSU are getting votes. Why? Because schools keep losing, it doesn't matter that they're losing to each other.

We all, as a league, better hope that the world doesn't decide that WSU's OOC schedule wasn't as tough as advertised, because other then MSU's win over Wisconsin, they're pretty much the only school that went and beat anybody this year.

I don't think ANYBODY is going to want to be the 4th team in the Valley pecking order this March.

If Indiana St. continues to win (3-1 in conference), they could be an exception with wins over Butler and Purdue.

[Newsbreaker]

If we are, as a league, relying on Indiana State's wins over Butler and Purdue, then our win over Iowa is suddenly going to become the centerpiece of this whole thing.

[jman2004]

New here to the board, but I agree totally right now. I think that statistics speak loudly to some, but obviously they're not speaking loudly enough right now.

I like being under the radar, but seriously, how can the 3rd ranked RPI conference have 10 teams with winning records, and not a single team in the top 25? Especially when one of those teams is 13-2 overall and 4-0 in the conference? It doesn't make any sense to me.

This kind of scares me early on too because I think the conference is so good right now, that they're too good. Other conferences don't want to play us and we're beating up on ourselves because we're so competitive. Come tournament time, we may not have a lot of teams with 18, 19, 20 wins and that could be offsetting to some of the voters when compared to Big East, Pac 10, and Big Ten schools.

However I do have some hope. I think the committee has realized over the last few years the power of the underdog schools. And while I think the Valley is definately a "top dog" conference, they're still looked at as a Cinderella conference in the eye of the committee. I think this year is their chance. If they are given four teams to the tournament, those four teams better do some damage. That'll open some eyes. If we're given 4 teams and they fold in the first round, I'm afraid we won't be granted that same opportunity for a while.

We'll see. It's still early and teams like Creighton and Witchita can still very easily catch fire and finish strong. I expect them too. So far it's been an awesome season.

[ejacobson]

The whole "bids" thing will probably hinge on the Bracket Buster games if the MVC can go undefeated or at least win the big games, then the MVC will not lose out on any bids, but if the BB goes poorly all those MVC loses will start to hurt people especially the way this league seems to go with the beating the crap out of each other all over the place. Thats just my thoughts.

[Panthers to the Bone]

The MVC, even with 7 teams in the top 44 will have no fewer than 5 teams in the top 40 RPI again this season. This time, look for all teams with 20 wins or more to make the NCAA's (barring a bottom 5 team winning the MVC tourney). Just my prediction, but one that I feel very confident about. The RPI still means something, although not as much as we originally thought. Look at SIU. They were the #8 RPI heading into RPI #44 I believe at the time (UNI). SIU loses on the road and still maintains a #8 RPI. Losing on the road will not hurt MVC teams (in fact it probably helps some), and winning at home (and especially on the road, even to the bottom 5 teams) will strengthen RPI's. I said before, in a perfect scenario, the MVC will have 3 teams that sink towards the bottom of the league (even with their good non-con record), and the rest will rise. This scenario puts 7 teams in the top 65 (IMO), and most likely means 6-7 post-season bids (NIT/NCAA).

[niclake13]

New here to the board, but I agree totally right now. I think that statistics speak loudly to some, but obviously they're not speaking loudly enough right now.

I like being under the radar, but seriously, how can the 3rd ranked RPI conference have 10 teams with winning records, and not a single team in the top 25? Especially when one of those teams is 13-2 overall and 4-0 in the conference? It doesn't make any sense to me.

This kind of scares me early on too because I think the conference is so good right now, that they're too good. Other conferences don't want to play us and we're beating up on ourselves because we're so competitive. Come tournament time, we may not have a lot of teams with 18, 19, 20 wins and that could be offsetting to some of the voters when compared to Big East, Pac 10, and Big Ten schools.

However I do have some hope. I think the committee has realized over the last few years the power of the underdog schools. And while I think the Valley is definately a "top dog" conference, they're still looked at as a Cinderella conference in the eye of the committee. I think this year is their chance. If they are given four teams to the tournament, those four teams better do some damage. That'll open some eyes. If we're given 4 teams and they fold in the first round, I'm afraid we won't be granted that same opportunity for a while.

We'll see. It's still early and teams like Creighton and Witchita can still very easily catch fire and finish strong. I expect them too. So far it's been an awesome season.

The reason that we're not getting any exposure is because the national press doesn't really give a hoot about the so-called "mid-majors". When you look across the nation, the only non-major conference team that really comes to mind is Gonzaga, because of all the noise they've made over the past few years.

but.....

Hasn't UNI made the tourney the past 4 years? Hasn't the MVC sent about 15 to 20 teams to the tournament in those four years? (Can anyone find this exact number? I'd be curious...) Didn't mid-majors garner any attention with George Mason cracking the Final Four?

Seriously, the snubbing of *all* mid-majors is getting ridiculous. I've watched so many games already this year where the mid-major team hands the "powerhouse" team their pride on a platter, such as UNI over Iowa and Iowa State. It's happening everywhere. Maybe ESPN should start paying attention.

-Nic

[tcondon]

Missouri Valley bids

2006: 4
2005: 3
2004: 2
2003: 2
2002: 2
2001: 2
2000: 2
1999: 3