A look at the Valley

[tcondon]

We are just about 1/3 of the way through the MVC season, and some suprising developments have occured at this point of the season. UNI and Indiana State tied for the top spot in the Valley is pretty suprising. Creighton's rough nonconference start was a shock to most as well, along with Wichita's fall come conference time. Here is a look at the resumes for contenders for an NCAA Tournament bid and my revised final standings.

Northern Iowa 12-3 (4-1) RPI: 41
Quality/BCS wins: Iowa State (RPI 98) Iowa (116) Bradley (33) @ Wichita (53) Southern Illinois (15)
Bad losses: @ Illinois State (101)

Missouri State 12-3 (4-1) RPI: 16
Quality/BCS wins: neutral vs. Wisconsin (12) Indiana State (35) @ Bradley (33) Wichita (53)
Bad losses: @ St. Louis (91)

Creighton 10-5 (4-1) RPI: 32
Quality/BCS wins: Xavier (46) Missouri State (16)
Bad Losses: @ Nebraska (70) @ Fresno State (94) @ Hawaii (97)

Indiana State 10-4 (4-1) RPI: 35
Quality/BCS wins: Butler (8) Purdue (49) Creighton (32) Wichita (53)
Bad Losses: @ Middle Tennessee (142) @ Ball State (260)

Southern Illinois 11-4 (3-2) RPI: 15
Quality/BCS wins: neutral vs. Minnesota (142) neutral vs. Virginia Tech (44) @ Western Kentucky (64) Wichita (53)
Bad Losses: none

Bradley 11-6 (3-3) RPI: 33
Quality/BCS wins: DePaul (59) semi-away vs. Iowa State (98) Southern Illinois (15)
Bad Losses: @ Tennessee Tech (190)

Wichita State 9-6 (1-4) RPI: 53
Quality/BCS wins: @ LSU (52) @ Syracuse (51)
Bad Losses: neutral vs. New Mexico (123)

It is safe to say that Evansville, Illinois State and Drake are going to be on the outside looking in come tournament time. I don't see any of these teams getting above 8 victories, even if they catch fire. Here is my breakdown of the rest of the Valley schedule and what I came up with going game by game, minus the Bracket Buster games.

1. Missouri State 13-5 21-7
2. Southern Illinois 12-6 20-8
3. Creighton 11-7 17-10
3. Northern Iowa 11-7 19-9
5. Wichita State 10-8 18-10
6. Indiana State 9-9 15-12
7. Bradley 8-10 16-13
8. Drake 6-12 14-14
9. Evansville 5-13 12-17
9. Illinois State 5-13 12-16

[pantherclaw]

Dagger through the heart. 19-9? Dang. But also very possible.
It is good that ISU keeps winning. though iowa needs to start winning.

[ubuntuCAT]

Yes ISU and Iowa have are a combined 0-5 vs the valley. It would really help us if they do some damage in their leagues

[ceaser150]

Tcondon, interesting breakdown. I don't think Drake will get to 6 wins. How many NCAA bids would the Valley get in that scenario? I wouldn't feel safe unless UNI goes 12-6 unless they won a few in the tourney.

[unigriff]

so tcondon, basically you're saying UNI will win all their home games and lose all the rest of their away games in the conference? I think we can steal a few on the road and we will go undefeated at home. 21-7 is more respectable.

[MeOW!]

so tcondon, basically you're saying UNI will win all their home games and lose all the rest of their away games in the conference? I think we can steal a few on the road and we will go undefeated at home. 21-7 is more respectable.

As we saw Tuesday night, winning on the road in the Valley is going to be VERY difficult.

If UNI goes unbeaten at home, they should be fine.

[Mac 23]

Andy Glockner's thoughts on the valley this year:

Trey (Wichita): Who do you think is going to win the valley this year? Any team can win on any given night...

Andy Glockner: That league is crazy this season. You can't even walk into Illinois State and chalk up a W anymore. Given all that, forced to pick, I would take Southern Illinois. I know the Salukis are a game back and I know they can't score a lot of the time, but they have already played four of their eight road games in league play, lost by 5 at UNI and by 2 at Bradley and have the toughest home court in the conference. No one wins in Carbondale. So say 12-6 or so and that might be enough.

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