kenpom.com predictions

[tcondon]

From his website...

Missouri State 14-4
Southern Illinois 13-5
Creighton 12-6
Wichita State 10-8
UNI 10-8
Bradley 10-8
Indiana State 9-9
Evansville 5-13
Drake 4-14
Illinois State 4-14

His lists UNI's chances for the remaining games and predictions:

Thu Jan 18 Northern Iowa vs. (20) Missouri St. Away L, 74-62[66] (13%)
Sat Jan 20 Northern Iowa vs. (78) Indiana St.Home W ,64-59[62] (74%)
Tue Jan 23 Northern Iowa vs. (35) S. Illinois Away L, 59-51[57] (18%)
Sat Jan 27 Northern Iowa vs. (119) Drake Away W, 69-66[63] (62%)
Tue Jan 30 Northern Iowa vs. (42) Wichita St. HomeL, 64-63[63] (49%)
Sat Feb 3 Northern Iowa vs. (100) Evansville Away W, 63-62[62] (55%)
Mon Feb 5 Northern Iowa vs. (78) Indiana St. Away L, 62-61[62] (43%)
Thu Feb 8 Northern Iowa vs. (119) Drake Home W, 73-63[63] (86%)
Sat Feb 10 Northern Iowa vs. (20) Missouri St.Home L, 70-66[66] (35%)
Tue Feb 13 Northern Iowa vs. (50) CreightonAway L, 62-57[59] (25%)
Tue Feb 20 Northern Iowa vs. (56) Bradley Away L, 72-67[67] (29%)
Sat Feb 24 Northern Iowa vs. (101) Illinois St. Home W, 63-55[64] (82%)

Projected record** 19-10 10-8

http://www.kenpom.com/sked.php?team=Northern%20Iowa&t=p

**Projected record is based on chances of winning, and therefore may not conform to the
cumulative game-by-game predictions. This accounts for the unexpected results that
will inevitably happen during the season.

[UnderParPanther]

interesting after we've beaten SIU, WSU and Bradley already, he doesnt think we can beat anyone other than the bottom teams the rest of the way.

I'd be shocked if Wichita gets to 10-8 in the conference....

[FerociousCat]

We are 4-2, he predicts we go 5-7 and finish 10-8??? Because of the math error, I put zero faith in his predictions.
I like our chances at home against both Wichita, and MSU. The road games are what worry me.

[BCPanther]

These same predictions said we would be 5-13 when the Valley season started. In the world of useless statistics, this one takes the cake...

[DancerHall Cat]

Without considering Bracket Buster or the MVC tourny, under that scenario I would imagine the top 3 are in, Wichita is right on the bubble and the rest are on the outside looking in.

Lunardi has us as his last team out right now, with Creighton SIU and MSU being the only 3 from the MVC in at this point.

[BCPanther]

12-6 with 1 win in St. Louis or 11-7 with 2 wins in St. Louis puts us in with our best seed ever...

[tcondon]

We are 4-2, he predicts we go 5-7 and finish 10-8??? Because of the math error, I put zero faith in his predictions.
I like our chances at home against both Wichita, and MSU. The road games are what worry me.

He has this in there for the math error...**Projected record is based on chances of winning, and therefore may not conform to the
cumulative game-by-game predictions. This accounts for the unexpected results that will inevitably happen during the season.

[PantherHawk]

The main thing is we need to win at HOME! No more stupid losses on our home court! Also we need to sneak into Drake Evansville and possibly Indiana State and get wins! We are horrible on the road at those sites, we need to win those three and protect home court and we are in! But after seeing Lundardi's article it really goes to show, that UNI is gonna have to play lights out the rest of the way to get in, their SOS is bad!

[DWadle1983]

interesting after we've beaten SIU, WSU and Bradley already, he doesnt think we can beat anyone other than the bottom teams the rest of the way.

I'd be shocked if Wichita gets to 10-8 in the conference....

The predictions are based on his program, not what he may or may not personally believe. The program's predictions for UNI have fluctuated all season. After UNI beat Wichita State and SIU, UNI was predicted to have a 14-4 MVC record. After UNI lost to Illinois State, the numbers took away a couple wins. Tomorrow, the program will probably predict UNI to have a 12-6 or 13-5 MVC record.

I wouldn't be shocked if the Shockers could get to 10-8. Until around Christmas, they were a very good team. There's no reason they can't turn it around.

[UNI Prof]

That program is brilliant; it was only 22 points away from being correct!

[DWadle1983]

The main thing is we need to win at HOME! No more stupid losses on our home court! Also we need to sneak into Drake Evansville and possibly Indiana State and get wins! We are horrible on the road at those sites, we need to win those three and protect home court and we are in! But after seeing Lundardi's article it really goes to show, that UNI is gonna have to play lights out the rest of the way to get in, their SOS is bad!

Creighton wasn't a loss to a bad team. It's UNI's non-conference SOS that will be terrible. If UNI is 2nd or 3rd in the MVC and a few more quality wins, UNI's in. Where UNI will have problems because of the non-conference SOS is if UNI ties for 4th or 5th. Of course winning in St. Louis would make it moot.

Last season, UNI's non-conference numbers got them in the Tournament. This season, it could keep them out.

[DWadle1983]

That program is brilliant; it was only 22 points away from being correct!

No one would have predicted UNI would win by 10 at Springfield. The prediction based on how UNI and MSU had been playing lately was a fair prediction.

[UNI Prof]

No one would have predicted UNI would win by 10 at Springfield. The prediction based on how UNI and MSU had been playing lately was a fair prediction.

How has MSU been playing lately? Winning by 50 at home and losing by 20 on the road is difficult to model.

[DWadle1983]

How has MSU been playing lately? Winning by 50 at home and losing by 20 on the road is difficult to model.

No, you're right. I had forgotten about the Bears losing at SIU. I wonder how much of a home court advantage his program was giving MSU. Wichita State's 8 point loss in Springfield was the closest home game MSU had before tonight.

[UNI Prof]

Personally, I like how our team contains Ahern. Defense should keep us in every game.