Wow

[HebrewHammer]

everyone should read this article.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/columns/story?columnist=lunardi_joe&id=2733623

[PantherHawk]

I hate to agree with the guy, but he has a point. That loss to Ill State is gonna be huge! Also we lose at home? I am sorry, i am a HUGE Panther fan and would love nothing to see the panthers in the big Dance, but we have a lot of work to do. We should of been 6-0 in the conference heading into tomorrow night. Also our preseason schedule did suck, we have to hope that these teams ralley and start winning. Otherwise our chances are only going to be win the conference tourney! I hope we prove mr lunardi wrong, but we have a 13 games left and if go 10-3 or even 9-4 we should be okay. If we 8-5 or 7-6 we are done!

[panther2317]

dude...take a breath...everyone in the Valley has 12 or 11 games remaining. They're all equally tough for everyone. (as evidenced by the fact the entire league has only played a 1/3 of the conference schedule and everyone has at least 2 losses already) Guys...ALL Valley teams are going to lose more games. The league champion is going to have 4 losses at least...maybe 5.

I have no idea where any UNI fan (or fan of any Valley team for that matter) can say, "We should have been 6-0". Guys, the returning league champion, Sweet 16 participant and media darling WSU is 3-4 in conference. We've beaten them on their home court and have them coming into the McLeod in 2 weeks. There are positives.

Yes...it's going to be tough...but that's what makes college basketball so great. The competition and the level of parity that exists. Let's just get behind our team, cheer them on tomorrow night...and then give them a great atmosphere on Saturday when the Trees come to town.

[panther2317]

Also, having Iowa, Iowa State, Bucknell, Washington, UW-Milwaukee and Pepperdine on the non-conference schedule in many other years would have been a BOOST to our RPI. You can't control how good the teams on your non-conference schedule perform. Many of these schedules are set years in advance and in some cases when you sign up for a tournament...you don't know who you'll play. So...to say our non-conference schedule sucks...is an uninformed statement.

[Newsbreaker]

Guys...ALL Valley teams are going to lose more games. The league champion is going to have 4 losses at least...maybe 5.

This, and the stuff in that article backs me up, is why I think the Valley will get 3 teams in this year.

[DancerHall Cat]

Its only uninformed if you assume that he was critical of the schedule when it was made. The fact is, it does suck. That isnt a jab at the AD, but rather at the teams we played who havent played well since. There isnt anything we can do about it, but the fact remains that it is hurting our tournament chances.

Personally, between the MVC regular season, tourny, and Bracket Buster I think we need 9 more wins to get into the tournament.

[BCPanther]

If we go 4-2 in each of the last two thirds of the Valley season and win a game in St. Louis... WE DANCE.

Looking at how the home/road breaks down for BracketBuster, I feel pretty confident in saying that we will either play Nevada or Butler (SIU will get the other) and win or loss (obviously, hopefully a win) we will get an RPI and SOS bump.

All in All we control our own destiny and are in pretty good shape...

[Deke3]

For those that don't want to click the link:

No one is quicker than yours truly to criticize a bad nonconference schedule from a good team. And no one was more surprised when the occupant of the dreaded No. 66 position in this week's projection turned out to be the team formerly known as Missouri Valley Conference leader Northern Iowa.

What is Lunardi smoking now, you ask? Weren't the Panthers 4-0 in the Valley just last week (with a well-earned spot in the coaches' poll to boot)? How can a team tumble from a No. 7 seed to "off the board" that quickly?

The answer is surprisingly simple. For all the talk last season of the Missouri Valley somehow "cracking the code" of the RPI, here is one example in which the arithmetic punishes an MVC team.

UNI, following consecutive losses to Illinois State and Creighton, is in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2003. The Panthers' good work to date -- wins over Iowa State, Bucknell, Iowa, Bradley, Wichita State and Southern Illinois -- could well be overshadowed by a single line on their postseason résumé: NonConf SOS No. 296.

I'm guessing the Panthers didn't intend this to be the case. They had to figure that Washington (No. 82), Bucknell (No. 124), Iowa (No. 112) and Wisconsin-Milwaukee (No. 234) would be a little farther up the RPI food chain. Instead, these and others on UNI's nonconference slate aren't enough to overcome anchors such as Nicholls State (No. 290), Pepperdine (No. 244), South Dakota State (No. 323) and UMKC (No. 253).

Those last four opponents sink the Northern Iowa profile with an InsideRPI average of No. 288. At UNI's level, if the low end of the equation really is this low, you just can't schedule enough Top 50 teams to make the arithmetic work. The result is that the Panthers have little or no margin for error should they not win or finish within a game or two of a Valley regular-season championship.

Now let's examine the final at-large team in this week's projected field. Drexel, like Northern Iowa, lost both its games last week. The Dragons dropped an overtime home thriller to Hofstra for the second straight year and were then blown out at Old Dominion. It would be easy and almost instinctive to leave Drexel out.

For the moment, though, the Dragons have a safety net. Their No. 27 nonconference schedule cushions any fall within reason. The Dragons played (and beat) No. 96 Vermont, No. 107 Toledo, No. 28 Villanova and No. 42 Syracuse. For good measure, Drexel also won at freshman-laden Saint Joseph's and rebuilding Temple.

Along the way, the Dragons did the most important thing they could to enhance their RPI prospects. They avoided teams from the bottom 100 of Division I. The worst nonleague team on their schedule was No. 197 Fairleigh Dickinson (compared to Northern Iowa, which had five teams lower than that).

Head-to-head, the Panthers are probably a little better than Drexel. But when the time comes, if the two teams are otherwise equal, the Dragons are more likely to be the ones smiling on Selection Sunday.

Joe Lunardi is the resident bracketologist for ESPN, ESPN.com and ESPN Radio. Comments may be sent to [email protected].

[PantherHawk]

Loyola and bucknell won tonight to help our SOS a lil! anyone see Evansville 42 So Ill 28? what is going on in this league, holy cow! I don't know who to cheer for?

[Panthers to the Bone]

SIU loses to Evansville 68-75.

[ubuntuCAT]

Is this league crazy or what?

[Panthers to the Bone]

Here are my thoughts. Thus far, yes, UNI's non-con SOS is not good at all. When the schedule was put together, I don't think anyone would have predicted such 'down' records for teams such as UW-Milwaukee, Bucknell, Pepperdine, Washington, etc...

The fact remains is that those teams (UW-M, Bucknell, Loyola, Washington) will win more and more games, and should challenge for conference titles this year. What has happened is these teams have also loaded up on tough non-conference schedules and have gotten beat. These teams are getting into their conference and should begin to win a majority of their games. This will not only help their RPI's, but UNI's SOS. Another thing to think about is that UNI will play a top 100 team in the Bracket Buster game. Almost every other 'BCS'/high mid major school has finished their non-conference portion of the schedule. That means they cannot individually help their non-con SOS the rest of the way. If UNI is able to get another non-con game against a top 100 team, I think you will see UNI's SOS improve 40-50 spots, and could improve alot further if those non-con teams start to pick up wins in-conference. It remains to be seen if that will happen, but it's a possibility nonetheless. Also remember that the MVC plays 18 conference games, while other conferences (namely all the BCS, except for the Pac-10) play only 16. This should be kept in mind, IMO, b/c the MVC is so tough that it will penalize UNI this year with a poor looking SOS. You should look at the overall SOS, rather than the non-conference SOS, IMO.

Now, here is something else to think about.

Two years ago, UNI came off an NCAA tourney, losing 3 key cogs to their team (2 starters and 1 super sub)---Gruber/Schneiderman/Schmit. Note this is similar to this year. UNI lost 2 starters and 1 super sub (Benny, Crawford, Little). Let's compare schedules thus far:

2006/07: 9-2 non-conference (2 top 125 wins...#111, #110...with a BB game to play)
Conference: W's @ Wichita, vs. SIU, vs. E'ville, vs. Bradley...L's vs. Creighton, @ ILSU

2004/05: 10-2 non-conference (2 top 125 RPI wins...#63, #98)
Conference: W's @ Wichita, vs. SIU, vs. E'ville, vs. Bradley, vs. ILSU...L's vs. Creighton

This is just a comparison vs. the 2007 conference schedule. UNI is one game behind where they were 2 years ago in a much weaker RPI conference. The future games held that UNI lost at home to Wichita, at Evansville, and at Drake.

[ceaser150]

I wish I could be as confident as some of you, but I don't think the comparisons to previous years hold water here. Last year there were 4 clear cut creampuffs in the league, and we didn't even sweep them. This year there are no easy wins, so getting the necessary 11 or 12 conference wins to go dancing will be difficult. That would probably require getting road wins at ISU, Evansville, Drake, and Bradley, places where we have struggled.

On the plus side, every win, especially every road win equals a huge RPI boost. It will be interesting to see how much stock the committee puts in RPI this year with the MVC having done such a good job building theirs up. There are also a number of BCS schools that have crappy non-conference schedules too, such as UCONN, and a number of those conferences are rated lower than the MVC. We'll see how the committee weighs that.

[DancerHall Cat]

PTTB, well written but I have to disagree with a lot of what you said.

I think our SOS will get better just by plaing teams in the MVC, but it is a big stretch to assume that our non-conference opponents will pick up the pace. Of the 4 teams you mention (UW, Loyola, Bucknell, and Washington), it is very difficult to imagine Washington(4 games out) and UW (3 games out) contending for a conference title. I would guess all 4 of these teams will improve on their records, but not to that extent.

You mention the 4 teams that you feel will improve, but leave out the rest of our non-conference SOS. I would guess Iowa and ISU will hover around .500 the rest of the way. That is more than we should expect from the likes of Nichols State, UMKC, Pepperdine and SDSU.

Im not saying that this team is doomed. I just think that between now and Selection Sunday, we have to take things into our own hands much more so than in years past. I think one way or another we need 9 more wins to get in. Hopefully we can get it done

[PantherAlumMustang]

beating up on each other

I know this has been covered in previous posts, but its seems to be a reoccuring theme in not only the MVC but all of college basketball. I am predicting alot of teams in the tournament this year with less than stellar records. This was brought to my attention again last night watching the Wisconsin/Purdue game. This assuredly was a game Wisconsin should have dominated at home in the Kohl center. IT didn't happen that way. Its amazing how much this has happened. Evansville (albeit a much improved team) beat SIU, which I didn't think was possible in all honesty. And the examples could go on and on so far this year.
Early on I was afraid the Valley was so solid that we would beat each other record wise, but it seems as if other conferences are doing the same; so lets have hope Panther fans. I read alot of posts about nonconference RPIs and so forth worrying about getting into the tournament. I say, just win and take care of business and the tournament will take care of itself. Not to mention we will always have the MVC tourney and its automatic bid. Have confidence in the program. Go Catz!