I wanted to start this to try some perspective on where we are this year compared to where we need to go. I think at the 1/2 and 2/3 point records of 15-5, 6-3 are solid. We have lost only one 'bad' game IMO (at ISU) and have some nice, if not great, wins. I still think the Bucknell win will look better and better as they hit their conference, I also think that Loyola will not look like such a bad loss at the end of the season.
As for the Valley. We are one of 3 teams to finish the first half of their Valley schedules at 6-3. That's nice, it puts in a position to challenge for the crown, although it looks like SIU may have the best second half schedule (6 total, 5 more) home games. I think 13-5 wins the Conference. That's doable but we were 11-7 last year and have not changed the outcome of games in our favor yet. We beat Bradley at home to make up for that L last year but gave it back with the L at ISU. To get to 13-5 we have to win the games we won last year (@ DU, vs WSU, @ UE, vs DU, vs IlSU) and win two of the four remaining that we lost from last year. Obviously the home one versus MoState is a must, then we need to take one from Indiana State, Creighton or Bradley. No small task with any of those.
Best guesses for what it will take to Dance.
I think we need to win 7 more games, including tourney games.
If we go 7-3, but lose in the first round af Arch Madness we will 22-9 (21 D-I wins) and probably in because we will be high in the Valley standings.
If we finish 6-4, go 1-1 in the tourney, we will be 22-10 and probably a strong bubble.
A 5-5 finish, would mean 7 wins puts us in the final but losing, and I think the bubble weakens.
Obviously 4-6, 7 wins would mean we win the tourney.
I think 6 more wins, unless we win the tourney, and we are sweating it out and most likely headed for the NIT.
Of course the best-case is to simply go 13-0 the rest of the season and get a white-shirt seed for round 1 of the Dance.
As for the Valley. We are one of 3 teams to finish the first half of their Valley schedules at 6-3. That's nice, it puts in a position to challenge for the crown, although it looks like SIU may have the best second half schedule (6 total, 5 more) home games. I think 13-5 wins the Conference. That's doable but we were 11-7 last year and have not changed the outcome of games in our favor yet. We beat Bradley at home to make up for that L last year but gave it back with the L at ISU. To get to 13-5 we have to win the games we won last year (@ DU, vs WSU, @ UE, vs DU, vs IlSU) and win two of the four remaining that we lost from last year. Obviously the home one versus MoState is a must, then we need to take one from Indiana State, Creighton or Bradley. No small task with any of those.
Best guesses for what it will take to Dance.
I think we need to win 7 more games, including tourney games.
If we go 7-3, but lose in the first round af Arch Madness we will 22-9 (21 D-I wins) and probably in because we will be high in the Valley standings.
If we finish 6-4, go 1-1 in the tourney, we will be 22-10 and probably a strong bubble.
A 5-5 finish, would mean 7 wins puts us in the final but losing, and I think the bubble weakens.
Obviously 4-6, 7 wins would mean we win the tourney.
I think 6 more wins, unless we win the tourney, and we are sweating it out and most likely headed for the NIT.
Of course the best-case is to simply go 13-0 the rest of the season and get a white-shirt seed for round 1 of the Dance.




Comment