NCAA Tournament Thoughts and Numbers

[tcondon]

I'm pretty bored this evening so I have gone through some numbers for the NCAA Tournament and taken a look at the teams from the BCS conferences and possible at large teams from smaller conferences. Anybody can look at the numbers now and put in who they think should be in at that point. But those numbers don't matter (and these really don't either, anyway) I will predict my 65 teams I believe will be dancing.

I seperated teams by who should be out (barring conference tournament title runs) and then projected teams down the line...

ACC
Out: Wake Forest 10-12 (2-8) RPI 128, Miami 9-14 (2-7) RPI 163, NC State

Solid: North Carolina 20-3 (6-2) RPI 2, Duke 18-5 (5-4) RPI 8

Work to Do: Boston College 16-6 (7-2) RPI 28, Virginia 14-2 (7-2) RPI 39, Virginia Tech 15-7 (6-3) RPI 36, Florida State 17-6 (5-4) RPI 19, Clemson 18-5 (4-5) RPI 24, Maryland 17-6 (3-5) RPI 30, NC State 13-8 (3-5) RPI 106, Georgia Tech 14-8 (3-6) RPI 57

My Projected teams: (7) North Carolina, Duke, Boston College, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Clemson

SEC
Out: South Carolina 12-9 (2-6) RPI 80, Mississippi State 12-9 (3-5) RPI 88

Solid: Florida 21-2 (8-0) RPI 13, Kentucky 17-5 (6-2) RPI 6

Work to Do: Vandy 15-7 (6-3) RPI 48, Georgia 12-8 (5-4) RPI 49, Tennessee 15-8 (3-5) RPI 16, Alabama 17-5 (4-4) RPI 26, Ole Miss 15-8 (4-5) RPI 63, Auburn 13-10 (4-5) RPI 90, Arkansas 14-8 (3-5) RPI 33, LSU 13-9 (2-6) RPI 83

My Projected teams: (5) Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas

Pac Ten
Out: Arizona State 5-16 (0-11) RPI 235, Oregon State 8-15 (1-10) RPI 173, Washington 14-8 (4-7), RPI 79

Solid: UCLA 19-2 (9-2) RPI 1

Work to Do: Arizona 15-7 (5-4) RPI 7, Washington State 19-4 (8-3) RPI 32, USC 18-6 (8-3) RPI 44, Stanford 15-6 (7-3) RPI 35, Oregon 19-4 (7-4) RPI 17, Cal 12-10 (4-6) RPI 58

My Projected teams: (6) UCLA, Arizona, Washington State, USC, Stanford, Oregon

Big Ten
Out: Penn State 10-11 (1-7) Northwestern 9-11 (1-8), Minnesota 9-14 (3-6)

Solid: Wisconsin 22-2 (8-1) RPI 4, Ohio State 20-3 (8-1) RPI 5, Indiana 16-6 (6-3) RPI 18

Work to Do: Illinois 17-8 (5-5) RPI 45, Michigan 16-7 (4-4) RPI 56, Michigan State 17-7 (4-5) RPI 38, Purdue 15-8 (4-5) RPI 45, Iowa 13-10 (5-4) RPI 86

My Projected teams: (4) Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana, Illinois

Missouri Valley
Out: Drake 11-12 (3-10) Illinois State 11-12 (4-9) Evansville 12-12 (5-8) Indiana State 11-11 (5-8)

Solid: Southern Illinois 18-5 (10-3) RPI 12

Work to Do: Creighton 16-7 (10-3) RPI 25, Missouri State 16-7 (8-5) RPI 31, Northern Iowa 15-8 (7-6) RPI 62, Bradley 15-9 (7-6) RPI 50, Wichita State 14-9 (6-7) RPI 61

My Projected Teams: (4) Southern Illinois, Creighton, Missouri State, Wichita State



Big XII
Out: Colorado 6-13 (2-7), Baylor 11-10 (2-7), Mizzou 13-8 (2-6), Nebraska 11-8 (2-5), Iowa State 11-10 (3-5)

Solid: Texas A&M 20-3 (8-1) RPI 11, Kansas 19-4 (6-2) RPI 22,

Work to Do: Oklahoma State 17-4 (4-3) RPI 21, Texas 16-7 (6-3) RPI 54, Kansas State 17-6 (6-2) RPI 41, Texas Tech 15-8 (4-4) RPI 34, Oklahoma 12-8 (4-4) RPI 81

My Projected teams: (5) Texas A&M, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas, Kansas State

Big East
Out: Cincinnati 10-12 (1-7), Rutgers 8-14 (2-8), South Florida 12-11 (3-6) Seton Hall 11-10 (3-6), St. John's 13-10 (4-6), DePaul 12-11 (4-6)

Solid: Pitt 20-3 (8-1) RPI 3, Marquette 19-4 (7-2) RPI 3

Work to Do: Georgetown 16-5 (6-2) RPI 37, Louisville 15-7 (6-3) RPI 59, West Virginia 17-4 (7-3) RPI 40, Notre Dame 18-5 (6-4) RPI 42, Syracuse 16-8 (5-5) RPI 60, Providence 14-7 (4-4) RPI 49, Villanova 14-7 (4-5) RPI 20, UConn 15-8 (4-6) RPI 87

My Projected teams: (7) Pitt, Marquette, Georgetown, West Virginia, Villanova, Louisville, Notre Dame

And the rest:
28
Mountain West (3) Air Force, UNLV, BYU
WAC (1) Nevada
Atlantic 10 (1) Xavier
Conference USA (1) Memphis
Colonial (2) VCU, Drexel
Horizon (1) Butler
West Coast (1) Santa Clara
MAC (1) Toledo
Big West (1) UC Santa Barbara
Ivy (1) Penn
Patriot (1) Bucknell
Southern (1) Appalacian State
American East (1) Albany
Sun Belt (1) South Alabama
Mid-Con (1) Oral Roberts
MAAC (1) Marist
Ohio Valley (1) Tennessee State
Big Sky (1) Weber State
Southland (1) Texas A&M Corpus Cristi
Atlantic Sun (1) Belmont
Northeast (1) Central Conn
Big South (1) Winthrop
MEAC (1) Morgan State
SWAC (1) Coppin State

Now, this is all without any conference tournament upsets. Something like a team like Mizzou from a power conference, or Butler getting upset in their conference tourney. You can usually figure on at least 2 of these a season.

[9YRPLAN]

you think illinois beats iowa in carver?

[PantherHawk]

pretty good overview, but i would not put WSU in just yet. I would also be a little hesistant on putting Ill in, they have a tough schedule yet. This weekends game against Mo State is huge for UNI! we need to win against Drake and Mo State!

[Big Cats]

Not disagreeing with you, but I think it's interesting that you picked Bucknell
over Holy Cross in the Patriot League. Obviously you expect Bucknell to win the PL tourney. That might be a slight upset. Guess we'll know more after this Friday when Holy Cross plays at Bucknell. Go Bison!!

[jman2004]

Boy, that's pretty much eye to eye with my thinking as well.

I've said in other unrelated threads, I don't like the Big East getting 7 teams, I wouldn't include Villanova in that mix. Not right now anyways.

And if we beat Missouri State on Saturday, they're going to have a tough time getting in, this I can GUARANTEE, unless of course they win the tournament. They're dead even with us, plus they've got a HUGE win, we don't. We sweep them, there's no way on God's green earth they get in over us unless they win out otherwise and we lose out otherwise.

WSU is the team that scares me too. They had huge wins in non-conference play and after their tournament showing last year, if they can put together a .500 conference record, a top 5 showing in the conference and a win or two in St. Louis, they're the team that's going to surprise everyone on selection Sunday by being the Valley's fourth team in.

I do think we'll get four. SIU, Creighton, us or Missouri State (or both), and WSU (if WSU finishes the conference strong, which would help our case in that we won on their homecourt).

[UnderParPanther]

only thing with WSU is their non-conference games are almost not helping them much as syracuse, wyoming and lsu are all struggling....

[BCPanther]

What happened to LSU?? They are 2-7 in the SEC. Think Glen Davis is regretting not coming out??

[PantherHawk]

Pretty much UNI controlls their own destiny, they need to win these next two and win 2 of the 3 on the road and then finish up with a blowout win over Ill State. If they lose 1 more and finish strong they will be okay heading into the conference tourny. Gonna be an exciting two weeks of basketball!

[tcondon]

pretty good overview, but i would not put WSU in just yet. I would also be a little hesistant on putting Ill in, they have a tough schedule yet. This weekends game against Mo State is huge for UNI! we need to win against Drake and Mo State!

I don't have Wichita in at this point, but I believe they will do enough to garner an invite by the end of the season. Take a look at their schedule the rest of the way...

vs. Indiana State
vs. Illinois State
@ Drake
vs. Appalachian State
vs. Missouri State
@ Creighton

I can't see Wichita going anything worse than 5-2 against that schedule. They have won 3 of 4, with two victories on the road. I think they'll do enough and have enough road victories to warrent an entry at the end.

To the person that asked if I believe Illinois will win in Carver Hawkeye to finish up the regular season, no I don't. But I do see them picking up road victories over NW and PSU along with home wins over Michigan and NW. 9-7 in the regular season, along with a first round victory over Iowa or Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament will put them in.

[BCPanther]

Wichita didn't so much collapse. Their OOC schedule was WAY over valued and they played the toughest first 2/3 of the Valley in the league.