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Is it safe to say that UNI has secured AT LEAST an NIT bid with the Bradley win? So if a worse case scenario played out that had them losing the next 2 they would still be looking at an NIT bid. I am worried about a potential rematch with Bradley in the first round of the MVC Tournament. Plus the way ISU played against Creighton last night anything could happen.
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We have secured the six seed in STL, nothing else. -
Actually, I think we are VERY close. The bad news is that the NIT contracted from 40 teams the last couple of years to 32 this year. Also, like last year, regular season conference winners that do not win their conference tourneys and do not receive at-large bids to the NCAA do receive auto-bids to the NIT (NOTE: I dont really consider this a bad thing in general, these guys deserve a post-season, but for our sakes, it could hurt us).
If you look at last year's numbers, the NIT selection comittee went straight down the RPI line in selecting their teams up until spot 81, where they skipped over VCU. Then they skipped Northeastern (90). UNLV (92) & Iowa State (93). DePaul had an RPI of 91, but a losing record.
Last year there were five "auto bids". I don't have data on whether or not that was a typical year or not but lets pretend it is. That leaves 27 spots open as opposed to 35. If you subtract the lowest 8 "at-large" teams from last year off the list, the at-larges would have stopped at Miami (Ohio) with an RPI of 84.
We currently sit at 77. I don't know enough about RPI to predict what will happen with an Illinois State victory but my guess is that it will remain approx unchanged. Then, IF we win our Friday game in the MVCt against, presumably, Bradley, it will likely jump to the low 70s, high 60s and remain about there with a loss in the Semis.
My point?- Lose to IlSU and Bradley/MSU and I would say absolutely no shot.
- Lose to ILSU and you likely have to go to the MVCt finals for a berth (which at that point, win the darn tourney instead!!)
- Win over IlSU and lose on Friday at the MVCt and you are squarely on the NIT bubble and, I would say, likely falling off due to our poor end of the season stretch. But there is still hope as you can pray for no upsets in the minor conferences.
- Win over IlSU & BU in the MVCt and I would start feeling pretty safe.
- Win over IlSU, BU and SIU in the Semis and maybe start thinking home game (Welcome the Hawks into the Mac??
). Again though, if they make the MVCT finals... just win it all baby!!
Last edited by UNI MadCat; 02-21-2007, 12:17 PM.Comment
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Here is last year's field. Those indented and in italics are the "bottom 8" that wouldn't have made it this year as they cut from 40 to 32 teams. Those in bold were the "auto bids" as they won their conference but not the tourney.
Another thing to factor in this year, unfortunately is that where the comittee started getting "choosey" was at the bottom with big name schools in 6 out of the 8 cases. It stands to reason that they will do the same thing this year, only at a much lower RPI point.
In the end, I still think that if we can get the RPI down to around 70, UNI is sitting ok (again, we are currently at 77).
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Missouri State 21
Hofstra 30
Creighton 39
Cincinnati 40
Saint Joseph's 43
Michigan 47
Maryland 49
Houston 53
Western Kentucky 54
Colorado 59
South Carolina 62
Florida State 63
Brigham Young 67
Louisiana Tech 68
Old Dominion 69
Akron 70
Louisville 71
Vanderbilt 72
Temple 74
Rutgers 75
UTEP 76
Clemson 78
Miami 79
Virginia 80
Butler 82
Minnesota 83
Miami (OH) 84
Wake Forest 85
Stanford 86
Manhattan 87
Oklahoma State 89
Notre Dame 95
Nebraska 96
Charlotte 104
Penn State 106
Northern Arizona 118*
Delaware State 123*
Lipscomb 143*
Fairleigh Dickinson 145*
Georgia Southern 159*Comment
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Thanks for the research MadCat! I have been thinking from the beginning it would take 18 wins to get into the NIT. I think it still takes that...although, just like me saying last year and the year before when I thought UNI would be in the NCAA's even after the late season demise...they were in by the skin of their teeth. I think 18 does it (barely), but I'd rather be at at least 19 wins, if not more!
The Lord reigns, let the earth be glad; let the distant shores rejoice, clouds and thick darkness surround Him; righteousness and justice are the foundation of His throne. Fire goes before Him, and consumes his foes on every side; His lightning lights up the world; the earth sees and trembles; the mountains melt like wax before the Lord of all the earth. The heavens proclaim His righteousness and all peoples will see His glory.Comment
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The NIT's much more about money than the NCAA's and i wouldnt be suprised if they end up giving the bid to a bad Big school(Iowa,Northwestern,Arkansas,St. Johns) over a above-average(below average as of late) smaller sized school like us["the Northern Iowa Panthers, corn-fed stars of the Missouri Valley with three straight NCAA appearances"-Kyle Whelliston
"Ka Boom Ka Bullseye"-the Gary RimaComment
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The NIT was bought by the NCAA and berths are actually somewhat objectively given out now...Comment
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I'd be very very suprised to see us get left out his year. Considering UNI has been to the NCAA's the past 3 seasons and a good season thus far, has to at least give them at least a little swing into getting in the NIT.Comment
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I dont think were in now. I think its gonna take a halfway decent resume to get in, and we still have work to do. If Bradley or WSU get in that would help our cause. Keep in mind all the regular season champs that dont win their conference tourneys get in automatically now, and with the field down to 32 its not easy to get in. We only have 16 DI wins, I think we need a couple more to get in.
Heres a website you all should look at regarding the NIT
Sincerely,
The Future AD of the University of Northern IowaComment
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Something to keep in mind is that if UNI finishes with at least 18 wins (IMO, the number that gets UNI in the NIT), I think we want to be rooting for Wichita to lose from here on out. The likelihood of a 17-14 Wichita St. team being taken, with an RPI probably around 100, isn't likely to be taken over UNI. I think you will see at least 1 team, and probably 2 teams taken from the MVC, so if UNI can be that #1 or #2 team, that's the most beneficial.
I don't like rooting against Valley teams, but in this case, I wouldn't mind seeing Wichita lose Saturday at Creighton. I think it helps solidify Creighton as an NCAA team, and Missouri State with a win at home against Drake gives them 21 wins on the season, and a top 40 RPI, which IMO, solidifies their NCAA tourney resume'. In UNI's hopes, we want at least 3 teams in the NCAA's and if there is a 4th, we want it to be either UNI or Bradley!
The Lord reigns, let the earth be glad; let the distant shores rejoice, clouds and thick darkness surround Him; righteousness and justice are the foundation of His throne. Fire goes before Him, and consumes his foes on every side; His lightning lights up the world; the earth sees and trembles; the mountains melt like wax before the Lord of all the earth. The heavens proclaim His righteousness and all peoples will see His glory.Comment
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This website has us out, looks like 3rd out. Interesting first round matchup between Bradley and Iowa, however.
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This really just isn't true anymore. Yes, to some extent there were some liberties taken near the bottom of the pool last year but nothing disimilar to the way the NCAA picks them.Originally posted by Macattackiowa View Post
Teams that got "skipped" last year:
#81 VCU (19-10, 6th in Colonial)
#90 Northeastern (18-11, 5th in Colonial)
#92 UNLV (17-13, 4th in MWC)
#93 Iowa St (15-14, 8th in B12)
#97 New Mex St (15-14, 4th in WAC)
#99 Ohio (18-11, 4th in MAC East)
#100 Hawaii (17-11, 5th in WAC)
#101 St Louis (16-13, 3rd in A10)
#103 La Salle (18-10, 4th in A10)
#105 Marist (19-10, 3rd in MAAC)
I think the only true "joke" of a pick last year was PSU. At 15-14 and 9th in the B10, its a little odd.Comment
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Yes but this website also didn't include our win over Bradley. It hasn't been updated since games on Monday. If we were "3rd out" before that game, I think we would be projected as "in" today.Originally posted by ceaser150 View PostComment
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Do you think a win over Bradley has that kind of weight?
We need to win saturday, and we need a win in STL.Comment
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Yes, this is exactly what I said in my original post. I dont think we are in yet. I just think the win helped immensely. I think we need to win Saturday and once in StL to lock the bid. But if that happens, then the win on Tuesday definitely was the catalyst.Originally posted by Newsbreaker View Post
As to this guys bracket, yes, I think it would carry that much weight if he updated his projections. If he is projecting things he'd likely project a win over IlSt which, even with a loss, could still be enough to barely sneak us in. Just look at the RPI difference now vs. 2/19 (his last update).
76 - UNI
77 - Dayton
78 - Iowa
80 - Washington
86 - South Carolina
87 - Nebraska
88 - UCONN
92 - WSU
94 - Oklahoma
101 - LSU
There may be some cherry picking but a 101-rpi LSU team isn't getting in over a 76 RPI team.Comment
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