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MVFC OOC stat fun
Hey guys, long time no see - though I’m sure some of you would rather keep it that way
I don’t plan on sticking around but wanted to drop these off for your reference.
As some of you may remember, or those who follow me on twitter or read AGS see with regularity, I’m a stat nerd, especially when it comes to comparing Thing A vs Thing B vs Thing C. I spend a lot of time focused on the FCS, and specifically the MVFC, for AGS and really grew to hate the MVFC record book linked through valley-football.org because I couldn’t sort it, couldn’t get scores, couldn’t get playoff results, etc… all in on view. I decided to make it so that I could.
I’ve started working my way through the record books and turning them into sortable Google Sheets. It’s a slow/tedious process that required checking each cell about 30 times as one cell being wrong threw everything else out of whack. I ended up spending about 30-35 hours on these two sheets.
The first sheet is every FCS OOC game ever played by an MVFC team, though does not count playoff games vs other MVFC teams. That means the 2014 game at Illinois State, the title game between NDSU/ISUr, or NDSU/SDSU playoff games, etc… are not listed. I could have added them but chose not too. It is broken down to performance versus each conference.
What it goes to show, in my mind, is how strong the conference has been even if there wasn’t an abundance of titles being won pre-NDSU’s run. The conference has a winning record vs every conference, except the SoCon. Nearly all of that is directly related to GSU, ASU and Marshall.
The second sheet breaks it out by teams
I like to point these numbers out on my twitter feed every so often, so I’ll point them out there as well.
The last few years UNI has been a bubble team and I read many comments regarding how tough of an OOC schedule UNI plays. The issue is the OOC has never been the issue. UNI is 10-1 vs the FCS in the regular season since 2010, which is the “start of the issues” according to most. Add playoffs in and UNI is 14-3 vs the FCS over that same time. Most impressive stats to me:
The last time UNI lost a road FCS regular season game? 1997.
Since 1995 UNI has lost just 2 home regular season games - both to SFA (04 by 1 and 10 by 2) and is 18-2 during that stretch, if playoffs are included it’s 35-5 at home.
Now, I suppose there is an argument to be had about it being impossible to get “up” for every game and that by week 5 or 6 that takes a toll on a team and could lead to a couple mental breaks that cost the team some conference game they shouldn’t. Honestly, given the recent history I’d say there is some merrit to that.
HOWEVER, the flip-side to that is YSU. Since the last time YSU has made the playoffs, 2006, we’ve seen a shift in how they schedule. It’s gone from CAA, Indy, Big South to nearly exclusively NEC, PFL, OVC, and since 2010 it has been exclusively NEC/PFL. They haven’t lost an FCS OOC game since 2008, and haven’t played a road FCS game since 2009. It builds their record, and their rank, through the first 4 or 5 weeks, but they are never ready come stretch run time and fall flat on their faces. It’s why YSU’s October/November record is WELL south of .500 over that same stretch.
I don’t know the answer to avoid losing, what seems like, 2 or 3 MVFC games that shouldn't be lost is, but it’s interesting to look at the trends/data.
As time goes on I also plan on turning most of the record books into sortable sheets. It doesn’t serve much of a purpose other than making researching and trying to “win” internet arguments easier for most, and we all know I’ve never been one to back away from one of those. It does, however, serve as an easy/quick reference guide that is easier (IMO) to read than the official record books.
I likely won’t check back after posting this, so if you see any issues that need to be fixed, or feel like seeing the insane ramblings that no longer clog this board feel free to contact me on twitter (I tend to ramble and throw out fun MVFC/MVC things I come across) or on AGS.
Thanks for taking the time to read this. As always: Go Panthers!
I don’t plan on sticking around but wanted to drop these off for your reference.
As some of you may remember, or those who follow me on twitter or read AGS see with regularity, I’m a stat nerd, especially when it comes to comparing Thing A vs Thing B vs Thing C. I spend a lot of time focused on the FCS, and specifically the MVFC, for AGS and really grew to hate the MVFC record book linked through valley-football.org because I couldn’t sort it, couldn’t get scores, couldn’t get playoff results, etc… all in on view. I decided to make it so that I could.
I’ve started working my way through the record books and turning them into sortable Google Sheets. It’s a slow/tedious process that required checking each cell about 30 times as one cell being wrong threw everything else out of whack. I ended up spending about 30-35 hours on these two sheets.
The first sheet is every FCS OOC game ever played by an MVFC team, though does not count playoff games vs other MVFC teams. That means the 2014 game at Illinois State, the title game between NDSU/ISUr, or NDSU/SDSU playoff games, etc… are not listed. I could have added them but chose not too. It is broken down to performance versus each conference.
What it goes to show, in my mind, is how strong the conference has been even if there wasn’t an abundance of titles being won pre-NDSU’s run. The conference has a winning record vs every conference, except the SoCon. Nearly all of that is directly related to GSU, ASU and Marshall.
The second sheet breaks it out by teams
I like to point these numbers out on my twitter feed every so often, so I’ll point them out there as well.
The last few years UNI has been a bubble team and I read many comments regarding how tough of an OOC schedule UNI plays. The issue is the OOC has never been the issue. UNI is 10-1 vs the FCS in the regular season since 2010, which is the “start of the issues” according to most. Add playoffs in and UNI is 14-3 vs the FCS over that same time. Most impressive stats to me:
The last time UNI lost a road FCS regular season game? 1997.
Since 1995 UNI has lost just 2 home regular season games - both to SFA (04 by 1 and 10 by 2) and is 18-2 during that stretch, if playoffs are included it’s 35-5 at home.
Now, I suppose there is an argument to be had about it being impossible to get “up” for every game and that by week 5 or 6 that takes a toll on a team and could lead to a couple mental breaks that cost the team some conference game they shouldn’t. Honestly, given the recent history I’d say there is some merrit to that.
HOWEVER, the flip-side to that is YSU. Since the last time YSU has made the playoffs, 2006, we’ve seen a shift in how they schedule. It’s gone from CAA, Indy, Big South to nearly exclusively NEC, PFL, OVC, and since 2010 it has been exclusively NEC/PFL. They haven’t lost an FCS OOC game since 2008, and haven’t played a road FCS game since 2009. It builds their record, and their rank, through the first 4 or 5 weeks, but they are never ready come stretch run time and fall flat on their faces. It’s why YSU’s October/November record is WELL south of .500 over that same stretch.
I don’t know the answer to avoid losing, what seems like, 2 or 3 MVFC games that shouldn't be lost is, but it’s interesting to look at the trends/data.
As time goes on I also plan on turning most of the record books into sortable sheets. It doesn’t serve much of a purpose other than making researching and trying to “win” internet arguments easier for most, and we all know I’ve never been one to back away from one of those. It does, however, serve as an easy/quick reference guide that is easier (IMO) to read than the official record books.
I likely won’t check back after posting this, so if you see any issues that need to be fixed, or feel like seeing the insane ramblings that no longer clog this board feel free to contact me on twitter (I tend to ramble and throw out fun MVFC/MVC things I come across) or on AGS.
Thanks for taking the time to read this. As always: Go Panthers!
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