Official Playoff Possibility Thread?

[UNI MadCat]

Would love to hear from a number cruncher what needs to happen. Either in games still going on today or what we need to look for next week.

I suck at numbers. Though I do know one thing...we need to win.

Anyone want to lend some data to the discussion?

[Trapped in California]

Re: Official Playoff Possibility Thread?

Bubble teams (of various degree) before the start of today's games

Maine, NAU, NC A&T/NCCU, Tennessee St, Fordham, UNI, CSU, Sacred Heart

Maine - won. Now 6-4.
Northern Arizona - lost to north dakota. Now 5-5 with one win against D2 team.
NC A&T - won. Now 8-2.
North Carolina Central U - won. Now 8-2
Tennessee St - down 21 end of 3rd Q. Loss would leave them at 6-4.
Fordham - won. Now 7-3
UNI - won
Charleston Southern - up by 26 in 4th Q. with win would be 6-3.
Sacred Heart - lost. now 6-4.

New Hampshire lost today, which puts them on the bubble @ 6-4 currently. Playing at Maine 6-4 next week. Does only one advance?

Montana now 6-4 with loss today, playing terrible Montana State 3-7 team next week.

[havok58]

Re: Official Playoff Possibility Thread?

Like you said, we need a big win against SDSU. I think the higher the score the better. NDSU plays South Dakota and it would be nice to see the Coyotes pull off the upset and not make it look like a bad loss for UNI earlier in the season.

Conferencewise, if things play out as expected:
NDSU 7-1 (10-1)
YSU 6-2 (8-3)
SDSU 6-2 (7-4)
UNI 5-3 (6-5)
and the rest of the league is a non-issue.

Finishing fourth in the conference, with those narrow losses to NDSU and YSU could make UNI look attractive. But at a 6-5 overall record, I don't know how UNI looks compared to the rest of the FCS and if the committee will look at SOS or even if they're biased against the MVFC and will only take three teams in this year.

Do we have any advocates on the committee at all?

[UNI MadCat]

Re: Official Playoff Possibility Thread?

Finishing fourth in the conference, with those narrow losses to NDSU and YSU could make UNI look attractive. But at a 6-5 overall record, I don't know how UNI looks compared to the rest of the FCS and if the committee will look at SOS or even if they're biased against the MVFC and will only take three teams in this year.

Do we have any advocates on the committee at all?

I think every conference has a rep on the committee. So, yes, in theory.

I know in the past they have said they value team SOS and conf SOS...both of which I assume really favor us.

[achrist70]

Re: Official Playoff Possibility Thread?

UNI would beat all of those bubble teams, and a 5-3 record in the Valley has to be respected

[vbfan19]

Re: Official Playoff Possibility Thread?

NC A&T - won. Now 8-2.
North Carolina Central U - won. Now 8-2

both are in the MEAC. one will win the conference and be in the "Celebration Bowl". Hopefully the selection committee feels that since the conference doesn't want to send their champion, that they don't deserve an at-large either.

[Trapped in California]

Massey UNI SOS (before today) is 108.

NC A&T 255
NCCU 305

Sent from my NSA monitored One+ 3

[havok58]

Re: Official Playoff Possibility Thread?

According to the Massey ratings, before today's games, UNI had an overall ranking of #10, with a SOS of #3 in the FCS. And the MVFC was still ranked the best/toughest conference in the FCS.

So if UNI can beat SDSU Saturday, hopefully that will seal the deal for a playoff berth.

[BisoninNWMN]

Re: Official Playoff Possibility Thread?

Massey UNI SOS (before today) is 108.

NC A&T 255
NCCU 305

Sent from my NSA monitored One+ 3

You would think a 6-5 UNI team would be easy consideration for a playoff spot but after listening to the committee chair and looking at their rankings so far, they are taking point differential and good losses into heavy account this year....

They claim SOS is looked at but then looking at the rankings they put out you have to wonder where they are.

After the 1st rankings came out, on local radio, the chair basically said they just half assed the rankings.

Hopefully they do a better job come selection time.

[wretched]

Re: Official Playoff Possibility Thread?

You would think a 6-5 UNI team would be easy consideration for a playoff spot but after listening to the committee chair and looking at their rankings so far, they are taking point differential and good losses into heavy account this year....

They claim SOS is looked at but then looking at the rankings they put out you have to wonder where they are.

After the 1st rankings came out, on local radio, the chair basically said they just half assed the rankings.

Hopefully they do a better job come selection time.

Don't "good" losses favor us: NDSU, and EWU & YSU both on the road, who has more "good" losses? and its not like USD and Montana are horrible losses. We have to be really good in point differential right? I was honestly hoping Montana won out as that would have been considered a good loss also if they had.

[wretched]

Re: Official Playoff Possibility Thread?

I do think SDSU is not an auto win, they are very good! They should in in the top 10 this week, so it would be a top 10 win!

[UNI MadCat]

Re: Official Playoff Possibility Thread?

I do think SDSU is not an auto win, they are very good! They should in in the top 10 this week, so it would be a top 10 win!

I can't imagine anyone on here disagrees with this.

[panther1]

Re: Official Playoff Possibility Thread?

UNI is playing a 'win and in' game. With Dunne at QB, we could pull an upset or three if given the opportunity.

[BisoninNWMN]

Re: Official Playoff Possibility Thread?

Don't "good" losses favor us: NDSU, and EWU & YSU both on the road, who has more "good" losses? and its not like USD and Montana are horrible losses. We have to be really good in point differential right? I was honestly hoping Montana won out as that would have been considered a good loss also if they had.

A 6-5 UNI would get serious consideration for a spot IMO.

UNI has one of the best SOS in the FCS.

Ill State might give UNI a run for a spot at 6-5 also. Would the committee think their NW win is a "better" win than Iowa State...idk

Although, IMO, UNI would get the spot with a better conference record compared to Ill State: 5-3 versus 4-4.

[SteinPizza]

Re: Official Playoff Possibility Thread?

A 6-5 UNI would get serious consideration for a spot IMO.

UNI has one of the best SOS in the FCS.

Ill State might give UNI a run for a spot at 6-5 also. Would the committee think their NW win is a "better" win than Iowa State...idk

Although, IMO, UNI would get the spot with a better conference record compared to Ill State: 5-3 versus 4-4.

To answer your question...yes, the committee would view a victory over Northwestern far more favorably than a win over Iowa State. Northwestern is decent, and Iowa State is not, to put it mildly. That assumes they dig into it that deeply.

I would also think the winning conference record would trump that, and be more meaningful than over analysis of FBS wins.