MVC Strength and Standings

[Kyle]

Why isn't their more talk about the Valley and what to expect during the next few months? Maybe it's just me , but I could talk about UNI basketball and the MVC all day. I think at this point in the season, enough games have been played to get a feel for the strength of the MVC as a whole and how the individual teams will stack up against each other.

Here's my analysis:

SIU (4-3) seems to be missing Tatum a lot, but they are still a force to be reckoned with. Tonight (beating #24 St. Mary's) was a prime example of how they are capable of playing toe to toe with some of the best teams in the nation. I expect them to finish no worse than 3rd in the conference.

Creighton (6-1) has been a program which consistently finishes at the top of the Valley, however, this year they return very few key players and are lacking in experience. Although Altman knows they Valley like the back of his hand, I predict a down year for the Bluejays, finishing in the middle of the pack come the end of February.

Bradley (7-3) has played some great teams and has played them well. Given their competitive non-conf schedule, they will be fired up and hit the ground running going into conference play. I expect them to finish at the top of the league.

Wichita State (5-3) is lacking in talent and going through a coaching transition (like most Valley teams). This will probably be a down year for the Shockers. I expect them to finish in the middle of the Valley much like last year.

Missouri State (5-2) has gobs of experience and is playing with a chip on their shoulders after being snubbed by the committee again last March. I predict their four starting seniors will propel them to a high finish in conference play.

Drake (8-1) will beat Iowa and Iowa State again...and will also be toward the bottom of the Valley...again. They won't be rock bottom, but rest assured, there will be no miracle for the Bulldogs this year.

Illinois State (6-3) has some good quality returning. They may be the dark horse of the MVC. I think I will be surprised at how they finish, but for now I will play is safe and say the will finish in the bottom half of the pack.

Indiana State (4-4) will be a bottom dweller in the Valley. They lost almost every game they played in January and February last year, and I expect the bad trend to continue when conference play starts.

Evansville (3-5) will be the rock bottom feeder in the MVC pond. They are really just plain bad. They might post a couple Valley wins against teams like Illinois, Drake, and Indiana, but the winning will stop there.

UNI (6-2) has yet to define themselves. They post some good wins, and some bad losses. The good news is they are only going to get better. I hope some of the hidden talent shows off in big ways during conference play and we surprise the hell out of the rest of the Valley. If we finish in the top 3 during the regular season, and make a strong run during the MVC tournament, I will be more than happy with our season.

What are your thoughts about the overall strength of the Valley and where we stack up???

[SteinPizza]

Re: MVC Strength and Standings

Drake (8-1) will beat Iowa and Iowa State again...and will also be toward the bottom of the Valley...again. They won't be rock bottom, but rest assured, there will be no miracle for the Bulldogs this year.

Not a lot of evidence either way, but I disagree on Drake. In looking at their schedule, they lost a close game at St. Mary's (ranked #24, just lost to SIU), and won a close game over Duquense (who gave #14 Pitt a scare before losing a close one). I think Drake could be suprisingly good. A down year overall in the conference could help Drake post a very good record. Coaching continuity probably doesn't hurt either.

[Khan4Cats]

Re: MVC Strength and Standings

The Valley will be interesting this year with the new coaches/philosophies being installed in half of the schools. It will really come down to which teams can dictate their style of play and which coaches can adjust to what everyone else is doing best. I break the conference down to styles:

Up Tempo/Pressure:

Creighton: Altman appears to have the depth to get back to the higher intensity pressure his teams have run in the past. They are young, but they have a lot of talent and probably the best coach in the Valley. Have played a decent schedule and are 6-1 right now, lost to Xavier (away) beaten Nebraska and St. Joe's. Have Ark-Little Rock coming up.

Bradley: Primarily guard oriented, though they added some size this year. They prefer to up tempo but will live and die from the arc. Have played a good schedule, got best win yesterday at Wright State, have losses to good Vanderbilt and Michigan State teams. Still have to play Butler and Virginia Commonwealth in non-con.

Drake: Keno uses a variation of his father's system and has better all around athletes to execute it than have been at Drake for a while. They lack a true big man or much of an interior game so may be vulnerable to a team with good big men if they can handle the pressure and make it a half-court game. Another team that lives at the arc, but they are also terrific rebounders who can get garbage points despite their lack of size.
8-1 but schedule has been light (2 non-D-I teams, only two road games, with a loss to St. Mary's away and a good win over Duquesne) Have one more non-con at Iowa Fri, then have two weeks off before opening Valley play at Wichita and home to SIU.

Intermediate Tempo:

Missouri State: Veteran team that will run when given the chance. Not as high pressure on D as some of the up-tempo teams, but will get it and go on O. 6-2 with a decent early schedule (no teams over 205) lost to Arkansas and Toledo (both road) and beat Winthrop. Still have Utah, Alabama and maybe Purdue (and also 2 300+ teams)

Illinois State: New coach comes from the Kansas mold. A lot of young talent to work with. May not be as solid defensively as others, but have talent to score some points.
Decent early schedule but haven't beaten the better teams or won away from Normal, two weaker road games left to change that.

Deliberate Tempo:

Northern Iowa: We prefer a slower tempo with half-court sets. On the year, we are 6-0 when we score 60 points, 0-2 when held below. UMass is a good win, So Dak State and Iowa are bad losses.

Southern Illinois: Defense has always been their staple. For much of this year that has also appeared to be thier achilles heel as they are not good enough offensively to score enough and they have not been as solid on defense as past years. 4-3 against a very tough early schedule with 3 top 50 teams (2-1) and only 3 home games so far. Still have a good Western Kentucky team and Butler left on non-con.

Wichita State: Learning a new system under a new coach. Marshall appears to prefer the more deliberate pace and the Shockers are adjusting. They haven't really been blown out, but haven't blown anyone away either. Decent schedule but no big wins and a bad loss to Monmouth in their 5-3 mark.

Indiana State: At this point playing a more deliberate style, but I would guess that has more to do with talent levels and they will eventually incorporate more Creighton-style defensive pressure, just maybe not this year. Moderate schedule that shows 3 wins against 240+ teams and one non D-I (all at home) and 4 losses to top 100 teams (all on the road).

Evansville: Not a real good team. New coach did not inherit a lot of talent and appears to try to be teaching them how to play defense first and build an offense off that. May be a long season for the other purple team. 3-5 against a weak schedule which includes a 1 point raod win over a winless Ball State team. Have lost to top 50 teams Butler and Valpo.

Hard to predict anything quite yet, especially with the Panthers not knowing what Reed and maybe Green will be able to do. Creighton and Drake look good, Evansville looks bad, everyone else is kind of in the middle with good and bad showings early.

[DRAKELAWPANTHER]

Re: MVC Strength and Standings

It may be a bit premature, but I'm a believer in Drake. If you think they're going to finish at the bottom of the conference, you are insane. Thus far, they have shown they are much more of a force to be reckoned with than UNI, that's for sure (losses at SDSU and against Iowa - are you freaking kidding?!). I expect Drake to finish in the top 3.

As for SIU - I think they are terrible. Defense will win them some games, but losing Tatum will prove too much. They'll finish #4 or 5 in the Valley.

Bradley is good this year. Probably finish at #2.

UNI: I thought they'd be the surprise of the year - but it's pretty evident that lack of a 3-point shooter will kill us once again. Getting Reed on the floor will help, but UNI consistently plays down to the level of its competition. And it's hard to have any senior leadership when your senior leader (and leading scorer) starts on the bench. Ridiculous. I look for the predictions on UNI to be right: around #7.

Creighton will finish on top. Why? Because they are Creighton, it's Dana Altman, and they always do well.

[williebat]

Re: MVC Strength and Standings

It may be a bit premature, but I'm a believer in Drake. If you think they're going to finish at the bottom of the conference, you are insane. Thus far, they have shown they are much more of a force to be reckoned with than UNI, that's for sure (losses at SDSU and against Iowa - are you freaking kidding?!). I expect Drake to finish in the top 3.

As for SIU - I think they are terrible. Defense will win them some games, but losing Tatum will prove too much. They'll finish #4 or 5 in the Valley.

Bradley is good this year. Probably finish at #2.

UNI: I thought they'd be the surprise of the year - but it's pretty evident that lack of a 3-point shooter will kill us once again. Getting Reed on the floor will help, but UNI consistently plays down to the level of its competition. And it's hard to have any senior leadership when your senior leader (and leading scorer) starts on the bench. Ridiculous. I look for the predictions on UNI to be right: around #7.

Creighton will finish on top. Why? Because they are Creighton, its Dana Altman, and they always do well.

by the way Creighton success has to do with super fresh stinett. Now that was a recruiting coup.

it is not lack of three point shooting that hurt us it is lack of rebounding. Jordan and Koch need to step it up now!!! And stop putting the ball down at your waste or knees. PLease!! this is not high school.


I know we played awful against Iowa. But if Iowa does not shoot lights out from three we would have won. Ans SDSU is not as bad as you think. Bad loss for RPI yes, but they are a competetive team don't judge them by name alone.

we are 6-2.

Definitely an unknown for us right now. But I would not be shocked if we go on a tear in the valley.

If we can go 1-1 against bradley I am hopeful and predict us in 1st or 2nd on Feb 1st. After that with coach Jakes illustrious march record as head or assistant coach it is anyone's guess.

[BCPanther]

Re: MVC Strength and Standings

How can you blame Jake for collapses when Mac was head coach??

Last year is his responsibility, but it is really unfair to put the year before on him...

[DRAKELAWPANTHER]

Re: MVC Strength and Standings

Yeah - rebounding has been inconsistent. But the bigger problem is that we have NO ONE who can dependably shoot the three. Teams are going to start packing the lane again - just like last year, shut down our big men, and force Brown or Viet to make more than their usual 1 out of 10 from behind the arc. If, for example, we had a Josh Young on OUR team, we would be ridiculous good.

[BCPanther]

Re: MVC Strength and Standings

Carlton Reed is going to be a difference maker. He can shoot the 3, get to the rim and does a great job of creating opportunities for other players on the floor.

I don't think that his experience at Iowa is a fair evaluation of his skills. Stevie destroyed his confidence and never really gave him a chance. In high school, it was him and not Mike Henderson that made that Waterloo East team go. Remember Carlton got that team back to the state title game without Henderson.

[TommyT]

Re: MVC Strength and Standings

Ok folks, before we annoint Carlton as the savior of the program, let's get him some game time.

As for #1 in the conference: Creighton or Mizzou St. SIU will be in the mix because they don't lose at home.

IF (big if) UNI figures out how to handle pressure D and if we don't play man-to-man defense every minute of every game all year we could be up there.

[BCPanther]

Re: MVC Strength and Standings

I didn't call him the savior. I said he is a very good player that brings skills that we don't have right now.

There is no doubt that Carlton is a difference maker...

[williebat]

Re: MVC Strength and Standings

Ok folks, before we annoint Carlton as the savior of the program, let's get him some game time.

As for #1 in the conference: Creighton or Mizzou St. SIU will be in the mix because they don't lose at home.

IF (big if) UNI figures out how to handle pressure D and if we don't play man-to-man defense every minute of every game all year we could be up there.

Right now we rely on josten to break down the d and go to the hoop to create our opportunities. Problem is he is the point guard.

maybe reed can create some offense by driving to the hoop and help break down D and take pressure off of josten to score. Then josten could focus on being point guard and running the offense and looking for opportunities to get inside to bigs.


Hey Wait a minute this sounds very familiar to last years problem except then we had a point guard. No one wants to drive to the hoop to create some space for our bigs.

[UNIPNTHR]

Re: MVC Strength and Standings

Hey Wait a minute this sounds very familiar to last years problem except then we had a point guard. No one wants to drive to the hoop to create some space for our bigs.

Maybe it's not that no one wants to, but that our system doesn't encourage that. I would imagine that when these guys play pick up ball there is no shortage of driving to the hoop.

[williebat]

Re: MVC Strength and Standings

Maybe it's not that no one wants to, but that our system doesn't encourage that. I would imagine that when these guys play pick up ball there is no shortage of driving to the hoop.

I would also bet that they are very good at driving to the hoop.

you make a excellent point.

[TommyT]

Re: MVC Strength and Standings

I didn't call him the savior. I said he is a very good player that brings skills that we don't have right now.

There is no doubt that Carlton is a difference maker... .

Forgive Brett, I wasn't calling you out. But I have noticed quite a few "wait until Carlton gets here" statements. I don't doubt his abilities, what I worry about is his health. Two foot injuries in a span of 6 months makes me a little leary of resting our hopes on his return. I'll be first in line singing his praises when he gets back on the court and shows he can run for the rest of the season.

[BCPanther]

Re: MVC Strength and Standings

Valid Points Tommy!!!!