What are the odds for that many mid-major matchups in the NCAA first round?

[Panther Alum 83]

Butler vs. South Alabama
Gonzaga vs. Davidson
Drake vs. Western Kentucky

Who is majoring in statistics and can figure this out? If you take all the seeds 5 - 12 and match them up randomly, in how many matchups do mid majors play each other? (Using 5 -12 because from 13 - 16 there are no BCS teams except Georgia, and they match up against 1 - 4.) I think the odds are low that you would get 3 games with mid majors going head to head. A similar situation existed last year in the first round.

And I believe it is rigged a little bit extra because Butler got a very low seed at #7. They deserve better than that.

I heard two guys on the radio discussing this. They both thought the committee does this on purpose. One guy thought it is done to guarantee 3 mid majors into the second round. The other guy thought it was done to prevent mass chaos if too many upsets occurred. Their theory is that the committee answers to the NCAA, and the NCAA wants it this way.

I don't know if I buy into a conspiracy theory, but I would like to know the chances this happens by pure luck. Any thoughts?

[TH1974]

Re: What are the odds for that many mid-major matchups in the NCAA first round?

One guy thought it is done to guarantee 3 mid majors into the second round.

If there is an alterior motive to having those teams play each other, this is it. I think it's just coincidence, though.

[victory4uni]

Re: What are the odds for that many mid-major matchups in the NCAA first round?

a coincidence??? Are you kidding me? No freaking way is it a coincidence. The committee does it on purpose, they have for years. I dont know the exact reason they do it, but in no way do the matchups just "happen" to pit mid majors playing mid majors in the first round year after year

[UNIChippewa]

Re: What are the odds for that many mid-major matchups in the NCAA first round?

Gary Parrish talked about these matchups on his blog on CBSSportsline.com the other day (don't have the link, sorry) and Wilbon and Kornheiser mentioned it in "Pardon the Interruption" on Monday.

I honestly don't know if the committee can take the time to conspiratorially match up the "mid-majors" against each other to ensure they take each other out. I really do think they are probably too busy figuring out what teams to put in and what type of seeds those teams should get. However, the cynic in me would not be surprised if it comes out someday that those matchups are intentional.

[TH1974]

Re: What are the odds for that many mid-major matchups in the NCAA first round?

You also have to figure that the mid-majors are almost always going to be seeded right in the middle. The better mid-majors aren't going to be much higher than #5, and the lower-seeded mid-majors aren't usually going to be less than #12 (if they're 'bad' enough to be lower than that, they're not going to be dancing). The structure of the bracket has those teams playing each other in the first round. It's just how it works.

Suggesting there's an anti-mid-major conspiricy is kind of like asking why the #1 seeds always get to play the #16 seeds, IMO.

[Panther Alum 83]

Re: What are the odds for that many mid-major matchups in the NCAA first round?

You also have to figure that the mid-majors are almost always going to be seeded right in the middle.

I think that is a good point.

[Khan4Cats]

Re: What are the odds for that many mid-major matchups in the NCAA first round?

The Valley breaking the RPI code and George Mason crashing the BcS party are having major ripple effects.

Butler suffered the most this year. No way should they have been dropped that far, 5 maybe the top 6 at worst. But they didn't beat anyone in the field. So freaking what. They beat several teams that were on the bubble, like Ohio State and Virginia Tech. They went 29-3. Only four other teams in the country lost three or fewer games. They returned nearly everyone from a team that made a tourney run last year that only ended with a loss to Florida in what was Florida's toughest test in the entire tournament. A travesty.

What the NCAA is hoping for is enough whining that they can expand the field by three so that each #1 seed gets an "opening round" opponent, wonder where the additional three bids will go?
They won't go as far doubling it, but I could see them incorporating the NIT and adding 31 teams to make a field of 96. That way the top 32 teams (with probably 27-29 BcS schools) will get a day of rest while everyone else plays an extra game.

[Khan4Cats]

Re: What are the odds for that many mid-major matchups in the NCAA first round?

I know that's the argument/criteria that was apparently applied this year.

It's a great argument, especially when looking to include BcS schools and exclude (or downgrade) others. BcS schools get the chance to get wins over "tournament" teams by the nature of their conference schedules. Even teams in the 7th, 8th, 9th conferences rarely get the chance to beat tournament teams in non-conference and if they split with someone in conference, it probably will eliminate them from at-large consideration because it will be seen as a bad loss instead.
Basically they are saying:

BcS schools just need to finish about .500 in their conference with a win or two over teams above them while playing a decent-but-not-too-tough non-conference schedule.
Non-BcS schools have to dominate their conference and also schedule enough teams that might qualify for the NCAA in the non-conference in order to get a win or two. Where are they going to get those games? If they can get a BcS school to play them, it will most likely be on a neutral floor or at the BcS school, otherwise you're option is find other quality mid-major schools and knock each other off. It's a no win for the non-BcS schools and the rich get richer.

[Panther Alum 83]

Re: What are the odds for that many mid-major matchups in the NCAA first round?

It's a great argument, especially when looking to include BcS schools and exclude (or downgrade) others. BcS schools get the chance to get wins over "tournament" teams by the nature of their conference schedules.

Agree 100%. During all the bubble talk, everyone pointed out Arizona State's few wins over tournament teams as positives. Only a few people were pointing out that they actually lost 10 of their last 15 games. If all you need to do is win a couple of quality games in your PAC 10 conference schedule, more than half the teams in the MVC could do that against PAC 10 competition, too. How? Because they would have the chance to play at home! Lots of MVC teams are very tough at home.

[clenz]

Re: What are the odds for that many mid-major matchups in the NCAA first round?

Agree 100%. During all the bubble talk, everyone pointed out Arizona State's few wins over tournament teams as positives. Only a few people were pointing out that they actually lost 10 of their last 15 games. If all you need to do is win a couple of quality games in your PAC 10 conference schedule, more than half the teams in the MVC could do that against PAC 10 competition, too. How? Because they would have the chance to play at home! Lots of MVC teams are very tough at home.

Untrue...the Pac 10 is the toughest conference in America....Just ask 3/4th of ESPN.

[UNIChippewa]

Re: What are the odds for that many mid-major matchups in the NCAA first round?

To a certain extent, it's splitting hairs, but I think you could have switched seeds between Drake and Washington State (I think Winthrop will beat Washington State) and you also could switch Butler and Oklahoma too.

[jman2004]

Re: What are the odds for that many mid-major matchups in the NCAA first round?

I said it last year and I'll say it again this season . . . open your eyes. This is a total conspiracy all the way. The selection committee DOES NOT WANT Mid-Major schools to perform well in the tournament because it's the BCS schools that make the money and draw the fans. They set these teams up to fail.

If they really wanted mid-majors to perform well, they could've put more into the field. Instead, they gave every bubble team slot to a BCS school. Oregon and Villanova are jokes. I think Baylor and Arizona are jokes as well. Easily could've gone to an Illinois State or a Dayton but the committee wouldn't have it any other way.

[Matt Trump]

Re: What are the odds for that many mid-major matchups in the NCAA first round?

Butler deserved the seed they got. Their high ranking throughout the year was due to previous year's success.

[Matt Trump]

Re: What are the odds for that many mid-major matchups in the NCAA first round?

Normally I'm a huge conspiracy theorist about stuff like this too, but look at how many "major" conference match-ups there are in the first round too.

Indiana vs. Arkansas
Clemson vs. Villanova
USC vs. Kansas State
Mississippi State vs. Oregon
Michigan State vs. Temple (A-10 doesn't consider themselves a mid-major)
Marquette vs. Kentucky
Purdue vs. Baylor
Xavier vs. Georgia (once again, A-10 is "major")
West Virginia vs. Arizona

Even if you take out the A-10 vs. BCS conference games...there's 7 match-ups between BCS conference schools and they'll eliminate themselves beginning tomorrow at 11:00 AM. 7 games with BCS teams in round one and 3 with "Mid-Major" match-ups. Probably not a big deal in the long run. Look at it this way, it ensures that 3 mid-majors will be in the second round with a chance to move on to the Sweet 16.

What? No conspiracy theory? U ok?

[Matt Trump]

Re: What are the odds for that many mid-major matchups in the NCAA first round?

You also have to figure that the mid-majors are almost always going to be seeded right in the middle. The better mid-majors aren't going to be much higher than #5, and the lower-seeded mid-majors aren't usually going to be less than #12 (if they're 'bad' enough to be lower than that, they're not going to be dancing). The structure of the bracket has those teams playing each other in the first round. It's just how it works.

EXACTLY correct. A #4 seed is typically a #20-24 ranked team. The good middies usually fall somewhere between the top 30 and 50 teams. Hence their seeds right smack dab in the middle of the brackets and against each other. People not realizing this are sipping on a little too much kook-aid and not looking at the facts.