Avoiding Thursday

[Kyle]

OK, I feel a little better about avoiding the play in game, assuming I am looking at this accurately. I am pretty sure the below scenarios result in a 6th place or higher finish.

1) UNI wins both remaining games AND one of the following happens:

1A) ISUred loses one or both of their remaining two games (vs WSU and @ Bradley)
1B) Drake loses one or both of their remaining two games (vs SIU and @WSU)
1C) UE loses both of their remaining two games (@ CU and vs MSU)
1D) MSU loses both of their remaining two games (vs ISUblue and @ UE)


2) UNI wins only one of their remaining games AND one of the following happens:

2A) ISUred loses both of their remaining two games (vs WSU and @ Bradley)
2B) Drake loses both of their remaining two games (vs SIU and @WSU)


IMO, the chances of us winning both of the remaining games is high. The chances of Drake losing @ WSU and/or ISUred losing to WSU is very high.

Bottom line is we absolutely must win our two remaining games. We do this and I think we avoid Thursday.

[Moose39]

Re: Avoiding Thursday

If we play the 3-6 game, will that set us up with the winner of 2-7? meaning, will we more than likely play CU than WSU?

[9YRPLAN]

Re: Avoiding Thursday

If we play the 3-6 game, will that set us up with the winner of 2-7? meaning, will we more than likely play CU than WSU?

unless jnutt is in charge of the bracket, yes

[06panther10]

Re: Avoiding Thursday

We will not win in Carbondale. I don't know how anybody could believe that we can win that game at this point. We have found so many ways to lose on the road, I just don't know you can count on us finding a way to win that game.

[achrist70]

Re: Avoiding Thursday

If we don't avoid Thursday I am not going to St. Louis, I'm sorry but it would not be worth my time or money.

I know this isn't very positive at this point, but I have tried to stay positive many times this year and been disappointed almost every time.

[Kyle]

Re: Avoiding Thursday

Come on, SIU is playing terrible right now and you don't even think we have a chance?

We beat SIU handily at home, holding them under 50 points WITHOUT James playing one second.

I believe we can win in Carbondale. In fact, I think we'll be favored to win.

[panther-state]

Re: Avoiding Thursday

As horrendous as we played against SIU last time AND we beat them handily, I don't see us losing this one.

[jnutt]

Re: Avoiding Thursday

unless jnutt is in charge of the bracket, yes

what the ****?

[UNIGrainer]

Re: Avoiding Thursday

OK, I feel a little better about avoiding the play in game, assuming I am looking at this accurately. I am pretty sure the below scenarios result in a 6th place or higher finish.

1) UNI wins both remaining games AND one of the following happens:

1A) ISUred loses one or both of their remaining two games (vs WSU and @ Bradley)
1B) Drake loses one or both of their remaining two games (vs SIU and @WSU)
1C) UE loses both of their remaining two games (@ CU and vs MSU)
1D) MSU loses both of their remaining two games (vs ISUblue and @ UE)


2) UNI wins only one of their remaining games AND one of the following happens:

2A) ISUred loses both of their remaining two games (vs WSU and @ Bradley)
2B) Drake loses both of their remaining two games (vs SIU and @WSU)


IMO, the chances of us winning both of the remaining games is high. The chances of Drake losing @ WSU and/or ISUred losing to WSU is very high.

Bottom line is we absolutely must win our two remaining games. We do this and I think we avoid Thursday.

Firstly, in scenario 2 we would need ISUBlue to also lose a game.

Secondly, we need Evansville to win, win, win. Since we got swept by UE, if we get involved in any sort of 3-way tie that involves the Aces we will lose that tiebreaker (except if Drake is the 3rd party because they swept UE and we swept them).

Thirdly, we probably wont beat SIU because we can't win a road game. Still haven't won outside the state of Iowa since November.

[Kyle]

Re: Avoiding Thursday

In the event of the tie between 3 or more teams, the tiebreaker is a mini round robin between the tied teams, not head to head. This means they take the best record of all the tied teams against each other.

If UNI, ISUred, Drake, and Evansville all end up tied 9-9, they will all also be tied in the round robin record at 3-3. This means the tiebreaker moves immediately to non-conf SOS which we hold over everyone but WSU.

[06panther10]

Re: Avoiding Thursday

In the event of the tie between 3 or more teams, the tiebreaker is a mini round robin between the tied teams, not head to head. This means they take the best record of all the tied teams against each other.

I don't really understand that. Correct me if I am not understanding this correctly....but couldn't, hypothetically, a team like UNI finish ahead of a team like Evansville despite being swept by them because they could potentially have the better "round robin" record under that scenario?

That would make little sense, and would be pretty unfair. Why wouldn't they just use the SOS and rank the teams?

[UNIGrainer]

Re: Avoiding Thursday

In the event of the tie between 3 or more teams, the tiebreaker is a mini round robin between the tied teams, not head to head. This means they take the best record of all the tied teams against each other.

If UNI, ISUred, Drake, and Evansville all end up tied 9-9, they will all also be tied in the round robin record at 3-3. This means the tiebreaker moves immediately to non-conf SOS which we hold over everyone but WSU.

But if you take Drake out of that (say, UNI/UE/ISURed or UNI/UE/ISUBlue Or UNI/UE/ISURed/ISUBlue) we lose.

[UNIGrainer]

Re: Avoiding Thursday

I don't really understand that. Correct me if I am not understanding this correctly....but couldn't, hypothetically, a team like UNI finish ahead of a team like Evansville despite being swept by them because they could potentially have the better "round robin" record under that scenario?

That would make little sense, and would be pretty unfair. Why wouldn't they just use the SOS and rank the teams?

You gotta look at the whole picture. Yes, that could happen, but only if the Evansville team that we lost to also lost to the other teams involved in the tie. If there was a 4 way tie, all 4 teams need to be considered. So, in this example, if UE (who got swept by Drake and ISU Blue), Drake (who swept UE and split with ISU Blue) and UNI all tied with ISU Blue (who beat UE twice, and split with Drake) all finish in a tie, the tiebreaker would pan out like this 1-ISU Blue, 2-UNI 3-Drake 4-UE. UNI finishes ahead of UE despite the fact we got swept by them because we made up that difference by going 3-1 against Drake and ISU Blue, who UE went 0-4 against.

[Kyle]

Re: Avoiding Thursday

I'm not entire certain, but I do believe if the mini round robin records are all tied, the tiebreaker moves immediately to non-conf SOS.

On MVC fans someone posted the below rules from the MVC website:

Multiple Ties
 1. If three or more teams are tied, regular-season competition among the tied schools shall be pooled into a “mini round-robin.” Teams shall be ranked according to their position in such a round- robin.
 2. If head-to-head competition does not break the tie, the deadlock will be broken by non-conference schedule strength as calculated by The RPI Report on the day before the final day of conference games. The teams will be seeded in order of their non-conference schedule strength.

[Kyle]

Re: Avoiding Thursday

But if you take Drake out of that (say, UNI/UE/ISURed or UNI/UE/ISUBlue Or UNI/UE/ISURed/ISUBlue) we lose.

You are right, but what are the chances of Drake winning AT Wichita?