Avoiding Thursday

[jnutt]

Re: Avoiding Thursday

There are I believe 6 teams that can finish 9-9, we want as many teams to finish 9-9 as possible, however the one that we did not was Eville. The 9-9 group will be pooled into a round robin. With Eville in that mix our record amongst those will be .500 or worse, with Evill out our record will be .500 or better (Drake sweep).

Tough to believe but yes, them losing last night actually did hurt us a little bit. We want Illinois State and Drake to finish 9-9 (us too). That puts us in.

We can actually (virtually) lock in a top 6 tonight with a win and a Drake loss, and a Indiana State loss. Drake is not going to win in Wichita on Saturday, if they lose tonight, and we win, we hold tie breaker with the sweep and will be tied in standings for 6/7. I would actually prefer for us to be the 6 rather than 4/5 anyway.

my brain hurts but thanks for explaining it

[Khan4Cats]

Re: Avoiding Thursday

An even better explanation at this point is that we need to become Bear fans. If the Bears can win both of their last games (tonight vs Indiana State and Saturday at Evansville) AND we win both of our games, we avoid Thursday 100% of the time.

[ceaser150]

Re: Avoiding Thursday

somehow Evansville losing hurt us? the probabilities here confound me some.

http://www.mvcfans.com/wp/

We went from 50%+ chance of avoiding Thursday to 60%+ chance of playing on Thursday according to the weighted scenarios. I find it hard to believe that Evansville loss had that big of an impact.

Anyway, I would be shocked if we lost tonight with no Taylor Brown. It will come down to how we play in Carbondale. I think with 2 wins we will be fine.

[Panther Cat]

Re: Avoiding Thursday

I'm a bit confused too. So let's assume there is a 3 or more team tie with Evansville, Illinois State, Drake & UNI. I thought it went to OCC SOS and we would be the highest one? But it sounds like it goes head to head record vs those teams, which would put us at 3-3. How would that stake up against this group? I'd still have to assume we would be at least the 2nd highest team?

Maybe I'm way off though?

[jegbomb52]

Re: Avoiding Thursday

The problem is if three or more teams are tied it goes to "round robin" play. If its a two way tie, head to head is considered, if that can't determine then it goes to Non Con SOS.

For example:

If only us and Illinois State are tied at 9-9, and Evansville is 10-8, we have the tie breaker with Illinois State.

If us, Illinois State, and Evansville are tied at 9-9, it goes to round robin, we would then lose a tie breaker to Illinois State based upon the following round robin records.

UE would win tie breaker at 3-1
Illinois State would place second at 2-2
We would come in last at 1-3

Help?

[achrist70]

Re: Avoiding Thursday

I am confused to how we can't still get the 3 seed, there is still a chance that there is a 6 way tie for 3rd place, I thought with that many teams, it goes to SOS which we are leading with.

[Khan4Cats]

Re: Avoiding Thursday

I'm a bit confused too. So let's assume there is a 3 or more team tie with Evansville, Illinois State, Drake & UNI. I thought it went to OCC SOS and we would be the highest one? But it sounds like it goes head to head record vs those teams, which would put us at 3-3. How would that stake up against this group? I'd still have to assume we would be at least the 2nd highest team?

Maybe I'm way off though?

We will win the tie-breaker if it comes down to SOS, only WSU is better than us right now and may even not be that.

As it is, right now we own the sweep of Drake, lost both to Evansville, split with the rest.

If there is a three-team tie, it goes to combined round robin. If Evansville is one of the teams we are tied with, assume that to be a -1 against us. If Drake is one of the teams in the tie, it is a +1 in our favor.

If we tie with Drake and Evansville. We swept Drake, Drake swept Evansville, Evansville swept us. We are all tied at 2-2. It goes to SOS.

If we tie with Evansville and Indiana State. We got swept by UE, split with ISU, and ISU blue swept UE. That makes the round robin ISU 3-1, Evansville 2-2, UNI 1-3. We lose out.

If we tie with Evansville and Illinois State, ISUr split with UE, so it would be UE 3-1, ISUr 2-2, UNI 1-3.

Four-way ties are not much better if they do not include Drake. ISUb, ISUr, UNI, UE would break out like this in the round robin: ISUb 4-2, ISUr 3-3, UE 3-3, UNI 2-4.

That is why Evansville losing last night and dropping into a tie situation is bad for us. Drake MUST lose and get into the tie situation for us to get on the right side of these round robins. Of course, they play in Wichita on senior night for Stutz, Murry, Ragland, Kyles, and Smith. I think it would be an EPIC upset for Drake to win that one.

Still, we must win our last two to improve our odds.

[Khan4Cats]

Re: Avoiding Thursday

I am confused to how we can't still get the 3 seed, there is still a chance that there is a 6 way tie for 3rd place, I thought with that many teams, it goes to SOS which we are leading with.

In the event of a 6-way tie, which would require ISUb to beat MSU tonight and UE to beat MSU Saturday among other things, this is the round robin break-out:

ISUb 6-4
ISUr 6-4
UE: 5-5
UNI: 5-5
MSU: 4-6
DU: 4-6

(I think) ISUb gets the SOS tie-break over ISUr for 3rd, UE gets the head to head tie-break over UNI for 5th, and MSU and DU end up on Thursday.

[Panther Cat]

Re: Avoiding Thursday

Thanks for the explanation. I didn't realize everyone pretty much beat Evansville besides us. Let's hope Evansville losses Saturday and we can win both. It can happen.

I guess we did need Evansville to win both or lose both. Let's hope for the latter.

[PFan23]

Re: Avoiding Thursday

The 6th seed is what I want. Allows for the ISU game first and then if we can win that one, Creighton second. Anything to avoid Wichita St til the end and keep us out of Thursday.

[Khan4Cats]

Re: Avoiding Thursday

By my count, not counting other games tonight, a win means about 61% of the possible outcomes have us playing on Friday. A loss drops that to about 14% of the outcomes avoiding Thursday.

Just Win.

[panther-state]

Re: Avoiding Thursday

Thanks for the explanation. I didn't realize everyone pretty much beat Evansville besides us. Let's hope Evansville losses Saturday and we can win both. It can happen.

I guess we did need Evansville to win both or lose both. Let's hope for the latter.

The Aces came only a few extra buckets, between ALL of their games, from beating pretty much everyone. That shot against us was probably the only time they got to reverse the tables on an opponent. That team could easily be sitting comfortably in 3rd

[Kyle]

Re: Avoiding Thursday

The problem is if three or more teams are tied it goes to "round robin" play. If its a two way tie, head to head is considered, if that can't determine then it goes to Non Con SOS.

For example:

If only us and Illinois State are tied at 9-9, and Evansville is 10-8, we have the tie breaker with Illinois State.

If us, Illinois State, and Evansville are tied at 9-9, it goes to round robin, we would then lose a tie breaker to Illinois State based upon the following round robin records.

UE would win tie breaker at 3-1
Illinois State would place second at 2-2
We would come in last at 1-3

Help?

In the event of a 3 way tie, we want UE to be out of it (because they beat us twice), and Drake to be in it (because we beat them twice).

Any 3 way or more tie without Drake or with UE and we are likely screwed.

Basically we really want UE to lose to MSU and Drake to either split SIU/WSU or lose to both.

This is all, of course, assuming we win out. If we don't, we're screwed no matter what happens.

[Khan4Cats]

Re: Avoiding Thursday

17 scenarios have us avoiding Thursday, 15 have us playing Thursday.

Just win.

[UNIGrainer]

Re: Avoiding Thursday

17 scenarios have us avoiding Thursday, 15 have us playing Thursday.

Just win.

If we win, 15 of 16 scenarios have us on Friday.

If we lose, 2 of 16 scenarios have on on Friday (10 have us as the #8 seed).

JWB.....JUST WIN BABY