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Re: MVC Conference Games
I feel I am pretty optimistic, but I do not see any scenario where we get into the NCAA Tournament as an at-large. None.
Let's say in a perfect scenario that we win out, win the regular season title, and lose in the MVC championship game in STL.
That puts us at: 21-12 vs. D1 teams (Wartburg doesn't count towards NCAA Tournament resume).
Our RPI is currently 78 (according to CBS, which is usually pretty accurate). It would probably be in the 40s in that scenario. Our SOS is #40 right now, but our last 5 regular season opponents all have RPIs over 100, so that will drop, likely in the 50s.
We are 3-5 against the Top 50 which isn't too bad, but we are 3-9 against Top 100 and those two losses to Evansville continue to get worse as they continue to lose.
I hate to say it, but I don't see a 21-12 MVC team getting into the dance unless they win the conference tournament. We are likely two wins in those close losses against Louisville, Memphis, Iowa, Indiana State, Evansville away from having a legitimate shot at an at-large in that scenario.
I feel I am pretty optimistic, but I do not see any scenario where we get into the NCAA Tournament as an at-large. None.
Let's say in a perfect scenario that we win out, win the regular season title, and lose in the MVC championship game in STL.
That puts us at: 21-12 vs. D1 teams (Wartburg doesn't count towards NCAA Tournament resume).
Our RPI is currently 78 (according to CBS, which is usually pretty accurate). It would probably be in the 40s in that scenario. Our SOS is #40 right now, but our last 5 regular season opponents all have RPIs over 100, so that will drop, likely in the 50s.
We are 3-5 against the Top 50 which isn't too bad, but we are 3-9 against Top 100 and those two losses to Evansville continue to get worse as they continue to lose.
I hate to say it, but I don't see a 21-12 MVC team getting into the dance unless they win the conference tournament. We are likely two wins in those close losses against Louisville, Memphis, Iowa, Indiana State, Evansville away from having a legitimate shot at an at-large in that scenario.
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