MVC Conference Games

[Kyle]

Re: MVC Conference Games

A W tomorrow doesn't put us in the drivers seat, but it opens up some realistic scenarios for us to pull off what many (including me) thought was impossible just a couple weeks ago.

WSU is playing like crap and has a brutal schedule down the stretch. CU is coached by Mac and well, it's February. ISUblue has two tough road games left and seems to be losing a little mojo. UE still has to play CU, WSU, ISUblue, and ISUred.

Meanwhile UNI has to play the bottom 3 teams in the league + a home game vs ISUred.

Tomorrow can't come soon enough.

[Griffitz]

Re: MVC Conference Games

Scenario: UNI wins out, Wichita loses @ISUb and @Evansville, ISUb loses @Evansville and @Bradley (it could happen...), Creighton loses at home to Wichita.

3 way tie at 12-6. UNI's non-conference SOS would put them over the top in the tiebreaker, right?

[panther-state]

Re: MVC Conference Games

Indiana St. has a higher SOS and them sweeping us takes us out of any tie with them, even if CU or WSU are involved. Just another reason to hate Jake freaking Odum

[Griffitz]

Re: MVC Conference Games

Indiana St. has a higher SOS and them sweeping us takes us out of any tie with them, even if CU or WSU are involved. Just another reason to hate Jake freaking Odum

Right, but this scenario would put Indiana State at 7 losses, out of the tiebreaker. Improbable, but I think some karmic justice is due...

[Hail Our Panthers]

Re: MVC Conference Games

3 road games left guys, we haven't been real consistent in those these past few years

[panther-state]

Re: MVC Conference Games

Right, but this scenario would put Indiana State at 7 losses, out of the tiebreaker. Improbable, but I think some karmic justice is due...

Ah I see. It was not very specific which 3 teams would be tied. Yes, UNI currently is pretty well clear of WSU and CU in SOS.

[Trapped in California]

Creighton has to be on the bubble at this point. Two or three losses, and they will need to win it all in St Louis

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[DWadle1983]

Re: MVC Conference Games

Creighton has to be on the bubble at this point. Two or three losses, and they will need to win it all in St Louis

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Agreed that Creighton or Wichita State may be facing winning in St. Louis or going to the NIT. Creighton's slumping and has a few more losses possible and Wichita State has a rough closing schedule.

[Kyle]

Re: MVC Conference Games

I wish PN had a resident hacksaw.

Does anyone here have statistical knowledge and some geeky excel skills?

[Hail Our Panthers]

Re: MVC Conference Games

I wish PN had a resident hacksaw.

Does anyone here have statistical knowledge and some geeky excel skills?

Is hacksaw not a Panther fan? He lingers around here in game threads sometimes..

[Hacksaw]

Re: MVC Conference Games

Scenario: UNI wins out, Wichita loses @ISUb and @Evansville, ISUb loses @Evansville and @Bradley (it could happen...), Creighton loses at home to Wichita.

3 way tie at 12-6. UNI's non-conference SOS would put them over the top in the tiebreaker, right?

This scenario would actually put WSU as the 1 seed, UNI as the 2, and Creighton as the 3... WSU would have 3 round-robin wins vs the tied teams, UNI would have 2, and Creighton just 1.

[Kyle]

Re: MVC Conference Games

Truthfully, no team scares me right now, but I'd rather play CU or WSU than ISUred.

[Hail Our Panthers]

Re: MVC Conference Games

Real time RPI now predicting a 3-1 finish, with a loss at Drake, finishing at 11-7 http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_300_Men.html
Creighton 4-0 (13-5)
Wichita 1-3 (11-7)
Indiana State 2-2 (11-7)


Also, Hacksaw's seed projections are up on MVCfans.com

[Kyle]

Re: MVC Conference Games

All credit goes to Hacksaw:

[Kyle]

Re: MVC Conference Games

The previous image assumes each game carries a 50/50 W-L probability.

This one takes into account weighted odds according to realtimerpi.com