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**Matt Trump** · 02-14-2006, 10:13 AM

I'm gonna sticky this and you can edit it to keep it updated 2317. That way you don't have to repost all this great info!!!

**ColoradoPanther** · 02-14-2006, 12:30 PM

It's always important to know who we should be cheering against as we yell at our tv screens, so just adding ESPN's perspective to your analysis 2317. Not trying to hijack, just adding more senseless verbiage so you can get to your next step and provide us a clear Cheering Guide (CG). EPSN is updating their "Bubble Watch" every 1-2 days here:

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch?id=13

Atl 10: ESPN agrees no one else in the mix, and Temple and Charlotte still on the "Work to Do" list. Temple gets a home shot at Duke later, so that's an upset we definitely don't want. Same for Charlotte at GW last game of year.

ACC: They don't include FSU on their list, but throw in Virginia. Either way, power conferences can shift so dramatically when "BIG" upsets are possible, it's tough to really analyze their bubble.

Big E: You're right in line with their view. RPI's are very low for this group- ESPN thinks 2 of these 4 should rise above and give Big E seven bids.

Big10: These two are huge. The 5 leaders in Big10 are already near locks and starting to separate. Schedules aren't mixed with other bubble teams for these two, so they could both win themselves in or lose themselves out. Cutting the Big10 down to 5 bids really expands the bubble.

Big12: Never has there been a bigger opportunity for the Big12 to help the MVC. They are sucking wind and could conceivably fall to 3 bids. Who would have dreamed? Easy pickings here, if KU can win out and Colorado lose out, that should provide enough separation to keep "hangers on" like A&M or ISU from grabbing free bids with a big12 tourney upset. ESPN doesn't even include A&M on their bubble list.

PAC10: ESPN adds Cal into the bubble mix. You may have had them in the lock category since they are conf 2nd place. The schedules look co-mingled enough that four total from Pac10 seem inevitable, regardless of who wins the games.

SEC: Arkansas gets added to the mix for ESPN. Guess I'd have to agree. Razors have very difficult schedule, but if they win their next four (includes Florida, Tenn, Bama) then they have definitely elevated. Of course, lose any one of those and they're pretty much officially off the board.

The rest: BracketBuster seems to be turning into something that matters afterall. MSU vs. UW Milwaukee is really the big one for the Bears and MVC. They control their destiny--- winning in conference seems to be clicking for them, if they can knock off W-M, then could be a two-game swing by knocking out possible Horizon at-large. Five MVC? Definite possibility.

WSU vs. George Mason. Both teams likely in, but not much room for error for either. Win would provide that final head-to-head dagger if needed.

Beyond what you have listed, ESPN adds Air Force and San Diego St. to their bubble mix, but I assume one of those teams will win their conf tourney? SDSU could get points if they win regular season crown, but I'd imagine that's a stretch.

Ah, the greed of going for five MVC bids is addictive. Of course, the leaders have to take care of business over the next two weeks and in the quarterfinals before we get too carried away.

**tcondon** · 02-14-2006, 01:24 PM

The Colonial this season should be a 2 bid league minimum and could have up to 3 bids. Take a look at the tops teams, and their resumes.

George Mason (RPI 15): 19-5 (13-2) Wins @ Manhatten (RPI 90), VCU (RPI 50), Old Dominion (RPI 44), UNC-Wilmington (RPI 32), @ VCU.
---Games vs. Drexel (RPI 137), @ Wichita (RPI 21), @ Hofstra (RPI 23) vs. James Madison (RPI 304)

UNC-Wilmington (RPI 32): 19-7 (12-3) Wins @ Butler (RPI 75), VCU (RPI 50), George Mason (RPI 15).
---Games left: vs. Hofstra (RPI 23) @ VCU (RPI 50) vs. Georgia St. (RPI 271)

Hofstra (RPI 23):18-4 (11-3) Wins @ Lasalle (RPI 74) vs. Wilmington (RPI 32), Old Dominion (RPI 44)
---Games left: @ Wilmington (RPI 32), Siena (RPI 134), @ W&M (RPI 251), vs. George Mason (RPI 15) & vs. Drexel (RPI 137)

Old Dominion (RPI 44): 17-8 (10-5) Wins vs. Georgia (RPI 93), vs. George Mason (RPI 15) Wilmington (RPI 32), VCU (RPI 50)
---Games left: Georgia St. (RPI 251), Marist (RPI 83), @ James Madison (RPI 304), @ Delaware (RPI 279)

Virginia Commonwealth and Northeastern are both top 100 teams in the conference as well and Drexel is sitting in 7th place, a team that went to the NIT semifinals in the preseason. They gave both Duke and UCLA all they could handle in New York.

**Newsbreaker** · 02-14-2006, 01:31 PM

It's easy to look at a league and say they should get multiple bids, but the math doesn't always hold up.

There are 65 births. Assuming the "power" leagues go as such:
ACC: 5
Big Ten: 7
Big XII: 4
Big East: 7
Pac-10: 4
SEC: 5

Assuming the auto bid comes out of each (and I'm not saying the above "Should" happen, but that's it's possible), that means 26 of 34 "at-large" spots are locked up. Eight is all the remains.

Take out 3 for the MVC, and you have 5 at-large births left. If MSU can sneek in, that's down to 4!

UNC-Wilmington and Hofstra probably both deserve, but one will get the shaft (assuming G.Mason gets the autobid.)

**panther2317** · 02-14-2006, 02:05 PM

I think the Bracket Buster has some 'at-large' elimination games this weekend. George Mason at Wichita State is one. If Missouri State wants to make a case for their at-large hopes, they NEED to win at Wisconsin-Milwaukee Saturday at 1:00 PM.

**Newsbreaker** · 02-14-2006, 02:14 PM

Good point 2317, and remember, the head of the seletion comittee is on record this year as saying the RPI isn't as important as some make it out to be.

My guess is SOMEBODY in the top-30 RPI will get screwed for a 'lower' team.

**panther2317** · 02-14-2006, 02:42 PM

If they aren't going to use it though as a measuring tool...what will they use? History of a program? Prestige? I like the RPI because it puts teams on a level playing field and makes people look OBJECTIVELY at a group of teams instead of assuming that the "BCS" conference schools are stronger.

If that's the case, MSU gets screwed. But then I hope Syracuse, Cincy and Seton Hall all get left out too...because right now I think in order, they are #'s 31-34 in the RPI. How do you say, "#41 Maryland is a better team than #31 MSU even though they have a worse record and not as many Top 50 wins.?" That might draw my ire

**Newsbreaker** · 02-14-2006, 02:44 PM

I think they use many tools, of which RPI is one. They look at SOS, at good wins, good losses, bad losses, as well as record in the last 10 (which RPI does not give special prestige to.)

For instance, I'm not sure SIU's loss to a DII is counted in the RPI, but it should be factored in.

**panther2317** · 02-14-2006, 02:47 PM

I'm assuming though...that what they consider a 'good loss', 'good win' and 'bad losses' comes from a team's RPI rank. I hope it's not just some committee member saying, "they lost to Utah, ahh they suck this year...they shouldn't get in!"

**Newsbreaker** · 02-14-2006, 02:54 PM

I don't know how they determine what a "good" or "bad" loss is. I'm sure RPI factors into, but how they they do that (current RPI vs RPI at the time) I don't know. Home vs Away is another factor that I believe the RPI leaves out.

**ColoradoPanther** · 02-14-2006, 10:52 PM

Positives tonight:
Maryland loss
Alabama loss

Negatives:
Seton Hall quality win over WVU
Temple win

**panther2317** · 02-15-2006, 05:57 AM

Right on Colorado Panther!

**panther2317** · 02-15-2006, 12:42 PM

Tuesday, February 14, 2006
Temple 57 St. Joseph's 44
Clemson 89 Maryland 77
Seton Hall 71 West Virginia 64
South Carolina 67 Alabama 56
UTEP 60 Alabama A&M 44
Missouri State 71 Evansville 50

Teams in BOLDwe would like to lose. Best win of the night as far as improving their NCAA Tournament Resume is Seton Hall knocking off #11 West Virginia.

**BCPanther** · 02-15-2006, 02:32 PM

We are not on the Bubble!!! We need to cheer for the Top 5 in the Valley in hopes of all 5 of us getting in!!

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