Bubble Teams

[panther2317]

OK, here goes, teams I'd like to lose this week:by the way, the best game this week other than UNI vs. SIU is tonight in the Colonial (Hofstra hosting #25 George Mason) Also, Mad Cat, please don't take the Wisconsin thing personal, they'll win...it would just help UNI the more they lose.

Thursday, February 23, 2006
TEAMS I'D LIKE TO LOSE IN BOLD
Old Dominion (19-8) at James Madison (5-20)
George Mason (21-5) at Hofstra (20-5)
UNC-Wilmington (20-7) at Virginia Commonwealth (17-8)
Cal (16-7) at Washington State (11-12)
Wisconsin (18-7) at Northwestern (12-12)
Villanova (21-2) at Cincinnati (18-9)
Utah State (18-6) at Boise State (13-12)
Stanford (13-10) at Washington (20-5)
Oregon (12-15) at USC (16-9)

Saturday, February 25, 2006
Syracuse (19-8) At Georgetown (18-7)
Arkansas (18-8) at Tennessee (20-4)
Missouri (11-13) at Colorado (17-7)
Michigan (18-7) at Ohio State (20-4)
Louisville (17-9) at West Virginia (18-8)
Northern Iowa (22-7) at Southern Illinois (18-10)
Duke (26-1) at Temple (15-10)
Seton Hall (16-9) at DePaul (10-14)
Kentucky (18-9) at LSU (19-7)
Arizona State (10-14) at Arizona (16-10)
Nebraska (17-9) at Texas A&M (17-7) (wish both teams could lose)
Ohio (16-8) at Akron (19-7)
Florida State (17-7) at Virginia Tech (13-13)
Stanford (13-10) at Washington State (11-12)
St. Louis (15-10) at Charlotte (17-9)
UAB (19-5) at SMU (12-13)
Creighton (19-7) at Missouri State (19-7) (depends on what we do)
I think if we win, we would want Missouri State to win. If we lose, we want Creighton to win.

[UNIAlum95]

ok..I'm sorry...but to get to the Sweet 16, the best route is to avoid #1's and #2's until the second weekend on the tourney. The best way to do that is to be a #3 through #6 or an #11 or #12. I can't wait to play a #1 or #2 seed, but I want to play them in Minneapolis in the Sweet 16.

Amen. I still want to see more than one win from this team. I don't want a Duke or UConn in the second game of the weekend...

[SteinPizza]

Wisconsin loses 62-51 to Northwestern.

[tcondon]

Seeds can be trickey business. 2nd round matchups against a 3 seed are nice, and it could be against a 14 seed if everything falls right. Let's take a look at upsets recently, since 1999.

1st Round
15 over 2: 1
14 over 3: 2
13 over 4: 6
12 over 5: 10
11 over 6: 7

2nd Round
8/9 over 1: 5
7/10 over 2: 11
6/11 over 3: 11

I figured the 7/10 games and 8/9 games are basically toss-ups, and that is what history has shown as well (can't find the link right now). To move on in the 2nd round, it is apparant that the 8/9 seed is not the way to go vs. a 6/11 or 7/10. Not only that, the 8/9 teams that have upset a number 1 seed in round two are Wisconsin, North Carolina, UCLA, UAB and Alabama. All major conference teams outside of UAB.

I think a ten seed would be ideal, with the recent struggles. Find a soft two seed; Ohio State on a bad shooting night, Gonzaga hasn't dealt well with being a favorite well in the NCAA Tournament, Illinois struggles outside of Assembly Hall. A team like that. I figure that is the Panthers best shot at making a Sweet 16 run.

[ColoradoPanther]

Mixed results for Thursday night Valley Bubble Watch. The losses by the Power bubble schools helped solidify some things, but the wins by the Mid schools are not helping matters.

ODU won.
Hofstra had a huge win over George Mason.
UNC Wilm won. Along w/ the two above teams, CAA making case for two bids.
Cal won.
Utah St beat Boise St by 2pts.

Good stuff:
Cincinnati lost, but looked strong against a #1 seed.
Wisconsin lost, as noted earlier. Three tough games remaining.
USC lost to Oregon.
Stanford lost to UW. This one is the biggee of the night. Might have sealed the Cardinals' fate.

[Panthers to the Bone]

Here is the 2317 and PTTB war room bubble updates. In our bracketology world, we don't lock teams in until they can lose the rest of their games and still get in. We aren't verbal commitments...we are binding letters of intent.

So, here is the bracket analysis. 65 spots...31 conference auto bids + 34 at-larges. We count conferences that have shots at multiple bid leagues (the bubble or lock team + the tourney winner in that conference). So, that leaves 18 single bid leagues. The remaining is as followed (RPI's are preceded by '---').

ACC (4)-
Locks: Duke, UNC, NC State, Boston College
Bubble: Maryland (15-10)--49, Florida State (17-8)--58, Virginia (14-11)---60
Big 10 (6)-
Locks: Ohio St., Iowa, Michigan St., Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan
Bubble: Indiana (15-10)---49, Minnesota (14-11)---67
Big East (5)-
Locks: Villanova, UConn, Pitt, Marquette, Georgetown
Bubble: Cinci (17-10)---27, Syracuse (19-9)---28, West Virginia (18-8)---26, Seton Hall (16-10)---60, Louisville (17-10)---70
SEC (3)-
Locks: Tennessee, LSU, Florida,
Bubble: Kentucky (18-10)---41, Alabama (15-10)---39, Arkansas (19-8)---45, Vanderbilt (15-10)---61
Big 12 (3)-
Locks: Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas
Bubble: Colorado (18-7)---47, Texas A&M (18-7)---57
MVC (2)-
Locks: Wichita State, Missouri State
Bubble: UNI (22-8)---31, Creighton (19-8)---32, SIU (19-9)---40, Bradley (18-9)---43
Pac 10 (3)-
Locks: Washington, Arizona, UCLA
Bubble: California (17-7)---59
MWC (0)-
Locks:
Bubble: Air Force (21-5)---39, BYU (17-7)---56, San Diego St. (17-8)---58
A-10 (1)-
Locks: George Washington,
Bubble: Xavier (17-8)---83
CAA (1)-
Locks: George Mason
Bubble: NC Wilmington (22-7)---36, Hofstra (22-5)---37, Old Dominion (21-8)---55
C-USA (1)-
Locks: Memphis
Bubble: UAB (19-5)---52, Houston (17-7)---54, UTEP (16-7)---65
WCC (1)-
Locks: Gonzaga
Bubble:
WAC (1)-
Locks: Nevada,
Bubble: Utah St. (18-7)---50, La Tech (16-11)---69
Patriot (1)-
Locks: Bucknell
Bubble:
Sun Belt (0)-
Locks:
Bubble: W. Kentucky (20-6)---46, South Alabama (20-6)---82
Horizon (0)-
Locks:
Bubble: UW-Milwaukee (18-8)---53

List of Bubble Teams:
Cinci
Syracuse
UNI
Creighton
West Virginia
NC Wilmington
Kentucky
Hofstra
Alabama
Bradley
W. Kentucky
Utah St.
Air Force
Indiana
SIU
Maryland
Colorado
Seton Hall
BYU
Arkansas
UAB
UW-Milwaukee
Houston
Old Dominion
Florida State
California
Virginia
Minnesota
Louisville
San Diego St.
Miami
Texas A&M
La Tech
Vanderbilt
UTEP
South Alabama
Xavier

[GonzoCat]

Dear Mr. PTTB/P2317:

Why does the PAC 10 have 3 lock teams when the MVC, which has a higher RPI only has 2? And the 3rd P10 team, Washington, has a lower individual RPI than two of the non-lock MVC teams, Northern Iowa & Creighton? This bracketology stuff is just so confusing to me.

Signed,

Just Curious

[Panthers to the Bone]

Trying to prove my unbias opinion to a fault! That is the only answer. IMO, the winner of the Creighton/Bradley game locks up one spot. If SIU wins their first game, they're a lock. And UNI and MSU are in, but I just left them on the bubble for now.

[bigticket]

Anyone hear lunardi & gotlieb(sp) this afternoon.. to sum it up... UNI & SIU are probably double digit seeds... just dont get blown out

i'll stick with my original thought, for a heat check i'll add in teams we'll end up with

first/second round loss - 11 seed ( Georgetown )
championship loss - 10 seed ( Washington )
champions - 9 seed ( Colorado ) ( in minneapolis )

i'll feel better once Seton Hall, Indiana go down...

How much do we need Bucknell to win!

[merkpanthers]

Colorado is not getting into the tournament. Have you listened to what anyone on ESPN has been talking about. They have like 4 wins against the RPI top 50. Sorry but that is not a tournament team.

[DWadle1983]

Colorado is not getting into the tournament. Have you listened to what anyone on ESPN has been talking about. They have like 4 wins against the RPI top 50. Sorry but that is not a tournament team.

I don't think we can underestimate the pressure on the Selection Committee to take four from conferences like the Big 12 or Pac 10 even if they don't deserve it.

[panther2317]

In "Negativetown" this morning, the loser of the MSU-UNI game on Friday night gets screwed on Selection Sunday. If UNI can win Friday night, it's another Top 25 RPI win for the Panthers!