MVC NCAA Tournament Bids

[Hime_Peterson]

I was glued to my TV yesterday. I woke up and watched UNI, then Missouri State, Southern Illinois after the Iowa game was done, Wichita, and bits and pieces of Creighton.

I studied the records and RPI's and here is what I concluded about the MVC NCAA situation after yesterday.

LOCKS:
Wichita State: Disappointing loss yesterday, but they still have an RPI at 19 or 20. If they win at Drake on Wednesday, they will win the MVC Regular Season Title--their chances of losing at home to Illinois State are about as good as Illinois State's chances of making the Tournament--absolutely zero.

Northern Iowa: Has been a lock for some time as the current RPI is 24, but yesterday's win was huge. Had they lost that game yesterday, it would have hurt in terms of seeding. UNI needs to win at Southern Illinois and advancing to the title game in St. Louis would help with seeding.

I think if today were Selection Sunday, both WSU and UNI would be 7 seeds.

SHOULD BE IN:
Missouri State: Playing the best basketball of anybody in the Valley right now. A big road win at UW Milwaukee, and they have an RPI of 21 right now. This week's game against Creighton is huge--if they win that game along with their game at Illinois State, they are comfortably in the NCAA Tournament. I'd say they're a 9-10 seed. The Bears are my pick to win in St. Louis and if they do that, they could be looking at a 7-8 seed.

Creighton: RPI is a little lower at 28, but they did what they had to do this week. I think they'll lose at Missouri State and who knows what will happen at St. Louis, but I have to believe as long as they don't lose both games this week, they'll be in, based on their RPI and that they're the biggest name/draw/best program in the Valley over time. I think Creighton, like Mo State, gets in with a 9-10 seed.

BUBBLE/ON THE WAY OUT:
Southern Illinois: I was not too impressed with them yesterday, and I doubt the Selection Committee was either. They're RPI is up at around 38-39. However, if they win both of their games this week, that would do them a lot of favors as they are still in contention to win the League and get the #1 seed in St. Louis--if Drake can play spoiler. If UNI wins in Carbondale on Saturday, SIU will be squarely on the bubble and will probably need to make the finals in STL to be in.

Tell me what you guys think.

[UNIChippewa]

Sounds about right. It also looks like you have done your homework.

S. Illinois had a really bad loss last night, much worse than the Shockers losing to a pretty damn good George Mason team. How about Bradley? I know that they are right in the middle of the league, but they are being mentioned nationally now as a team on the bubble as well.

It would be great to get five teams in from the MVC. I think the Big 12 is doing the MVC some favors right now with the mid-level teams like Colorado and Nebraska stumbling this weekend. Same thing with Iowa State yesterday as well (as I write that with gritted teeth).

[Hime_Peterson]

Chippewa,

I watched Bradley play against SIU during the commercial breaks of the Iowa-Michigan State game--they are a very good team. In an ordinary year of the Valley, they'd probably be right up there competing. Sommerville and O'Bryant are pretty much impossible for any team to match up with, but I think UNI will do that as well as anybody.

Bradley however, does not play well outside of Peoria, and I don't think they're good enough to beat the Panthers. Despite their good RPI, I think they'd have to beat UNI, win at home against Drake which they shouldn't have too much trouble win, and then probably advance to the finals in St. Louis.

Unfortunately for them, they aren't going to win at the Dome on Wednesday, but hopefully they can make a nice run in the NIT. I certainly wouldn't want to play them in the 3-6 game of the Valley Tournament

[Hime_Peterson]

It would be great to get five teams in from the MVC. I think the Big 12 is doing the MVC some favors right now with the mid-level teams like Colorado and Nebraska stumbling this weekend. Same thing with Iowa State yesterday as well (as I write that with gritted teeth).

Chippewa,

Very good point here. Iowa State's only chance to make the Tournament is to win the Conference Title, which is not likely. Colorado looked solid a couple of weeks ago, but is probably more on the Bubble with a lackluster RPI. Nebraska and Kansas State simply aren't Tournament teams either. The team to keep an eye out for in terms of the 4th bid from the Big 12 is Texas A&M.

Also keep an eye on teams like Arizona, Syracuse, and Kentucky. I think all three of these teams played their way in with big wins over the weekend--Zona and Kentucky coming on the road. With these teams, the name on the front of their jersey won't hurt either.

Basically, the Missouri Valley needs to hope that sleeper teams don't win their conference tournaments.

[NJ Panther]

I agree with almost everything, though there is still alot that can happen. It hard for me to look at things objectively because I automatically assume UNI will defeat Bradley and SIU and really don't feel like thinking otherwise. WSU is a lock and Creighton could survive a loss to MSU. SIU is one L away from the serious bubble, especially when you consider their falling RPI does not include that horrendous DII loss, which I guarantee will be brought up if they're up against 1 or 2 similar profile teams for the last at-large. MSU's situation is much like ours last season, meaning I think they need to win one in STL or otherwise hope for massive massive help from the BCS schools (which we got last year). As for the Panthers I hesitate to use the term lock because, well, I'm a Cubs fan and thus a little nervous about such language. But, our profile looks darn good, especially with wins over 3 teams in last weeks top 25. Lots that could still happen

[irishpanther]

Yeah SIU most likely not to be in b/c they have lost several game. The way they lost was ugly.

[ceaser150]

Everyone in the MVC has at least 3 games left, so a lot can change. UNI, WSU, Creighton, and MSU are in the best position right now. Bradley and SIU are still in the running. Both tose teams play UNI, so they can really improve their resume by beating us. If everything falls right, we could see 5 bids from the MVC, but I think 4 is likely. Remember, how you finish the season is very important to the Committee, so the slight skid SIU is on and the hot streak MSU is on will have an effect on their chances.

[Newsbreaker]

IN: UNI/WSU/CU
Bubble & Climbing: MSU
Falling off the Bubble: SIU
Spoiler, but not getting in: BU

Bradley can cost someone a spot, but they're not dancing even if they win out, unless they win the tournament.

[NJ Panther]

[QUOTE=ceaser150]Both tose teams play UNI, so they can really improve their resume by beating us. QUOTE]
Thats what makes UNI's next two games scary to me. We're going to get both of their best shots, and we can't afford to lose both games or we're in trouble. Luckily the boys will have had three full home off days before Bradley, which should have them rested up enough to give it a mega effort.

[GonzoCat]

I don't have any problem with your analysis, but I'm wondering where you are getting your RPI numbers from. Don't match up with any I've seen. I'm guessing you took them from realtime RPI just before making your post. That ranking seems to be less accurate than others.

[ceaser150]

IN: UNI/WSU/CU
Bubble & Climbing: MSU
Falling off the Bubble: SIU
Spoiler, but not getting in: BU

Bradley can cost someone a spot, but they're not dancing even if they win out, unless they win the tournament.

Sorry, I disagree here. If they win out, they could tie us in the standings if we also lost to SIU. Technically, they would finish ahead of us due to beating us twice. If they just made it to the championship game, they would finish 20-10. I believe UNI made it last year with a similar record and they skipped teams ahead of us in the standings to make that selection. If we are a lock right now, Bradley would be a lock in the scenario I described. The only strike against them would be a pathetic road record, but a win in the Dome would be a big plus. That along with a strong finish would look good on the resume.

[Hime_Peterson]

I predict that Missouri State will beat Creighton on Wednesday.

To me, that would put the Bears ahead of the Jays.

I got my numbers from the realtimerpi site.

I don't see anyway SIU gets in unless they beat the Panthers on Saturday. they just don't look like a Tournament team to me.

[Newsbreaker]

Bradely won't be a lock. Their RPI sits around that 50 slot right now, wins over UNI, plus another won't get it high enough to get into that 'lock' territory. MAYBE if the got the to Conference Championship, and beat the right teams to get there.

We benefit from being a 'media darling' and the exposure that goes with it. Bradley isn't on the national radar yet, and probably doesn't have time to get there. While that shouldn't matter, it does.

[AmesPanther]

On Sports Center they were giving some opinions and seemed to think the MVC gets 3 in and that's it.

I think the MVC deserves more, but will get the shaft and end up with 3 in.

[UNIChippewa]

There seems to be a bit of a ESPN backlash against the MVC now since we only went 3-2 on TV games for the Bracket Buster on Saturday. Andy Katz (whom I normally respect) wrote that he got kind of an "ehh" feeling from the showing on Saturday, and there was someone else who predicted kind of a backlash against us. I think it's the media overreacting like usual.

However, if S. Illinois does go into a real tailspin and Missouri State loses some at the end, including in the 1st round of the MVC tournament, only three bids could be a possibility, although right now that does seem unlikely.