MVC NCAA Tournament Bids

[UNI Guy]

Lundardi has an article at

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/columns/story?columnist=lunardi_joe&id=2337316

that defends the Valley getting 5 bids even with though the conference "only" went 3-2 in the TV games.

[Marc Wigim]

Short of also blaming the MVC for the war in Iraq, most of this is still a reach. And I believe it stems from a mind-set that evaluates the Missouri Valley in mid-major terms.

What does that mean? Mainly, it means we are looking for reasons to exclude additional Valley teams instead of reasons to include them in the NCAA field. We're just conditioned to think that way about conferences outside the BCS brand.

I absolutely LOVE this quote!!

[DWadle1983]

There seems to be a bit of a ESPN backlash against the MVC now since we only went 3-2 on TV games for the Bracket Buster on Saturday. Andy Katz (whom I normally respect) wrote that he got kind of an "ehh" feeling from the showing on Saturday, and there was someone else who predicted kind of a backlash against us. I think it's the media overreacting like usual.

However, if S. Illinois does go into a real tailspin and Missouri State loses some at the end, including in the 1st round of the MVC tournament, only three bids could be a possibility, although right now that does seem unlikely.

On ESPN News it was Andy Katz and Doug Gottlieb who were discussing the MVC's not being very impressive on Saturday.

Imagine what the reaction would be if UNI had not beat Bucknell, and the MVC went 4-6, and three of the four NCAA Tournament contenders hosting games losing.

[TexasPantherfan]

Just read that Lunardi article. I agree with Ontheprowl04, I love the quote. What do you guys think of Lunardi having the Panthers as an 8 seed?

[Coachdags]

No MVC teams will get a bid to the NCAA tournament with 10 losses. That is my prediction, only exception is if they win the MVC Tournament.

I believe its that simple.

[DWadle1983]

Other articles linked to Katz',

Bilas:

2. Is it just me, or does the Missouri Valley Conference appear to be getting a bit too much respect in the RPI rankings?

I believe that most mid-majors get too little respect, so a short-term swing the other way for the MVC is hardly something to get your underwear in a bunch over. However, claiming five teams as locks for the NCAA Tournament seems a bit over the top, and something doesn't feel right about where these teams fall in the RPI rankings.

As of Saturday, five MVC teams were ranked in the RPI Top 30. Wichita State (17), Northern Iowa (23), Southern Illinois (28), Missouri State (29) and Creighton (30) represented 20 percent of the best 30 teams in the country. Do you really believe that all of these teams are better than George Washington, Marquette, Kansas, Kentucky and Alabama?

Why are these teams ranked so high? One important reason is that they are good -- and they play good nonconference schedules and usually don't suffer bad losses. But another component has to be the road, and how road games are counted. Wichita State has played 13 road games, exactly half of its schedule going into Saturday's game against George Mason.

In my opinion, road games cannot be counted the same for every team that ventures away from home. It is far different to play on the road at Duke than it is to play at Drake. The MVC, with so many highly ranked teams, gives its teams a better opportunity to rack up quality wins than does the SEC or the Pac-10. Is a road win in the MVC comparable to a road win in the SEC?

The truth is, Kentucky got less of a bang in the ratings out of its win at South Carolina than George Mason got out of winning at Wichita State, because it was a top-25 win. Kentucky's win was only a top-50 win, and will not provide as big of a boost.

There has to be a better way to evaluate and rate wins and losses. Why can't we "Moneyball"-ize the RPI and assign a value to a game at the time it is played, and rate teams according to how good they are?

Gottlieb:

1. The Valley
While many experts, including Joe Lunardi, have annointed the MVC as not only the best mid-major conference but, numbers-wise, a better bid league than, say, the ACC or the Big 12, it should be noted that, with the MVC losing two BracketBusters home games -- and nearly a third with its best team receiving a gift -- that maybe we should rethink just how good this league is.

For example, George Mason, in my estimation, has guaranteed itself a spot in the NCAAs. Guaranteed. Forget about its gaudy record overall and the fact that the Patriots have won road games everywhere -- their record is an astounding 19-0 when they lead a game with five minutes to go. This is not only an NCAA team, but a potential Cinderella, which will give someone fits in a month.

While I love the defensive effort Southern Illinois brings to a game and their resilience after starting the year with losses to Monmouth and D-II Alaska-Anchorage, I think the numbers that have them in the NCAAs are a bit deceiving. What we're not taking into account is that many experts have told us the RPI is a blunt instrument and is used to organize their thoughts. Translation: It doesn't guarantee anything.

For those who don't know, the MVC tourney is called Arch Madness, because it's played in Saint Louis. And for five teams fighting for at least three NCAA spots (with Bradley and Indiana State lurking as big spoilers), you can forget the ACC or Big 12 tourneys -- buy me a ticket to the Savvis Center and watch NCAA Tournament-level basketball being played in early March.

[Khan4Cats]

I think Gottlieb's got it right. Nothing has been proven yet for our seeds. St. Louis is going to be an absolute zoo even after the last week of games. Everyone is talking about MSU-SIU-Bradley having something to play for, Indiana State is almost at .500 and could be looking to make a little noise to salvage an NIT bid. 7 teams at St. Louis, not counting Drake, Evansville, and Illinois State could be looking at post-season credentials. Damn, I wish I could go.

[SteinPizza]

I think Gottlieb's got it right. Nothing has been proven yet for our seeds. St. Louis is going to be an absolute zoo even after the last week of games. Everyone is talking about MSU-SIU-Bradley having something to play for, Indiana State is almost at .500 and could be looking to make a little noise to salvage an NIT bid. 7 teams at St. Louis, not counting Drake, Evansville, and Illinois State could be looking at post-season credentials. Damn, I wish I could go.

I agree Khan, there's something about Indiana St. that scares me. I could see them pulling off a huge upset and putting a serious dent in the NCAA plans of one of the conference front runners. Then again, they are so up & down, that they could get blown out first round. I just hope we don't play them.

[CincyPanther88]

There seems to be a bit of a ESPN backlash against the MVC now since we only went 3-2 on TV games for the Bracket Buster on Saturday. Andy Katz (whom I normally respect) wrote that he got kind of an "ehh" feeling from the showing on Saturday, and there was someone else who predicted kind of a backlash against us. I think it's the media overreacting like usual.

I think you're right. On a local sports talk show here yesterday a caller said he doesn't think the MVC should get more than 2 bids. He used the bracket buster losses as negatives against SIU and WSU. The host - who's a former Kentucky football player - seemed to agree for the most part and didn't think they should get more than 3 bids. So the mid-major perception is still there.

[Newsbreaker]

Cincy, remember that callers to sports talk shows rank just above celery on the intelligence chart. Sports Talk radio is vast wasteland of the misinformed, pseduo-intelligent and pretend important.

[NJ Panther]

Bilas is just so stupid. No one is calling more then 2-3 Valley teams a lock. At this moment we may get five, but I think the fans, the experts, the teams, and the MVC office realize things still have to fall just right. Heck, I'm not ready to call UNI a lock and I bleed purple and gold (and I'm superstitious). I realize they sound similar, but of course a MVC bottom feeder like Drake is not going to be like going into the #1 team in the country (Duke). Thats an absolute strawman comparisson of ridiculous proportions. The comparison should be is going into Carbondale, Peoria, Omaha, Cedar Falls or Wichita as tough as the overwhelming majority of BCS schools? I sure think so, but let me get Steve Alford, Barry Collier, and Mike Davis and see if they think their experiences in valley arenas this year were busch league (all three lost). I know comparison scores are worthless, but Valley teams have beat teams (Nebraska, LSU, and Iowa) that beat teams on his better then thou list (Marquette, Alabama, and Kentucky). Oh, and I'd take the Shockers over South Carolina anywhere, anytime. Bilas is such a BCS tool

[oldschoolcat]

Lunardi has 5 MVC teams in. MSU inside the bubble and obviously he has SIU in. It will be interesting to see it play out. Panthers have a ton of work to do to get seeding up as high as possible, starting Wed! Personally, I will be very surprised to see the MVC get 5 in. But then again, I ran around my house screaming last year when they announced UNI getting in. The MVC is definitely gaining respect.

[CincyPanther88]

Cincy, remember that callers to sports talk shows rank just above celery on the intelligence chart. Sports Talk radio is vast wasteland of the misinformed, pseduo-intelligent and pretend important.

Oh yeah, I know that. But as well as the MVC has done this year, they are still the equal to the Sun Belt or the WCC in a lot of people's minds. Doesn't make it true but until the MVC starts getting games regularly on national TV (ESPN, ESPN2, any of the free networks) and starts advancing teams into the Sweet 16 and further, they are not going to get the respect they deserve. How stupid is it to bash WSU for losing a tight game on Saturday, even if it was at home? Last I checked even the best teams in the "major" conferences lose a home game every once in a while to a tough out of conference opponent. It would have been no shame losing to Bucknell but to uninformed fans it just looks like another mid-major not living up to the hype.

[panther2317]

In my opinion, road games cannot be counted the same for every team that ventures away from home. It is far different to play on the road at Duke than it is to play at Drake. The MVC, with so many highly ranked teams, gives its teams a better opportunity to rack up quality wins than does the SEC or the Pac-10. Is a road win in the MVC comparable to a road win in the SEC?


Well I don't know Mr. Bilas? Maybe you should ask UNI, who beat SEC West leading LSU on their home court 54-50. It seems to me that Valley teams are doing it on the road in tough places to play both in and out of conference!

Also...since you feel like we're comparing apples to oranges (or at least that's what I get from your writing) maybe Kentucky, Kansas and Alabama would like to give UNI and Wichita State their operating budgets, facilities, tradition and fan bases for a year or two? See, teams like the 5 Valley teams you mentioned are doing it the right way without all of those advantages. Teams like that need to be rewarded come tournament time.

Finally...the road win boost to the RPI was added to do one thing and one thing only in my humble opinion...to encourage teams like Kentucky and Kansas to play ROAD non-conference games. If they scheduled some...and won them...they would see the same boost in their RPI's, yet they are so stubborn and will not give up home game revenue...so I say...play 10 HOME non-conference games vs. the lower 1/3 in the RPI and then you'll be sitting on the bubble come Selection Sunday, while Valley teams will continue to go on the road in the non-conference, get some impressive wins and be in the Top 30 of the RPI in late February and March for years to come.

That's my take. GO Valley! GO Panthers!

[tcondon]

Cincy, remember that callers to sports talk shows rank just above celery on the intelligence chart. Sports Talk radio is vast wasteland of the misinformed, pseduo-intelligent and pretend important.

Hey, watch it.