If you are worried about Selection Sunday, read this:

[CF Panther]

I believe the Panthers are in, regardless of what happens next week. Sure, it would have been great to finish strong, but it didn't happen. They still have an RPI worthy of the tournament and the resume to support it. What stinks, though, is that now they are going to be that low seed that we all were thinking they would avoid about a month ago. But then again....the bigger the seed...the harder they fall!!!

UNI will be seeded between 8-11. No lower, and definitely no higher. The problem obviously being that an 8 or 9 seed would most likely spell disaster in a 2nd round matchup (depending of course on the 1 seeds; there are a couple potential 1's that are ripe for an upset). A 10 seed would actually be a better situation, and even 11 or 12 is better than an 8 or 9; although UNI most likely will see a 9 seed IMO. It's always strange to say at this time of the season, but the higher our seed is, the worse position we are in...

[Newsbreaker]

I think we're in, but we're not a lock, we're simply very high on the bubble. In fact, we're probably not one of the last 4 in, but one of the last 8-10.

We need few upsets this week, we need teams like Iowa and LSU to play deep into their tournaments.

My precition: UNI - WSU - SIU and Bradley get in. MSU and Creighton get the shaft. Yes, that means a top-30 RPI gets left out. If there are VERY few upsets this week, then MSU will get that last bid.

[AmesPanther]

I agree. News and I are saying the exact same thing for a prediction. I guess we are saying it in different threads though

[UNI MadCat]

You might mean a different season as far as the former SW Missouri. 1999 was the season they reached the Sweet 16 beating Wisconsin and Tennessee with their Hall of Fame Coach Steve Alford.

Sorry, 2000. Point still remains.

[UNI MadCat]

OK, to start out I believe that we should be in, but there is still the possibility that we could be left out of the big dance. We are 4-6 in our last 10 games. I believe that is the same as WSU was last year and they got left out. We are also 2-5 in our last 7 games and I think that we only played UNI basketball for one half of those 7 games and that was the second half of the MSU game. We are squarely sitting on the bubble no matter how you put it. If we would have got the Win yesterday against SIU I think that we would have been a lock, but we didn't. Yes, it went into OT which should help us out, but we just couldn't finish. I don't care what the RPI says and all this other junk. We are on the bubble and will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.

No, we won't be sweating. WSU had an RPI of 45 last year. Ours will be around 25 on Selection Sunday, that's a HUGE difference that you aren't considering.

[Newsbreaker]

Some of you guys are making an inaccurate and unwarrented leap of logic here. You're assuming that becasue specific RPI's were 'good' or 'bad' for a team in the past, that the information carries similar weight and will matter again this year.

There is no rule that a team with an RPI above "x" is in or out. RPI is one piece of a puzzle. There are times when teams are left out for a team with a poorer RPI then they have.

WSU had an RPI of 45 last year. Yes, but do we know that this piece of information is what kept them out of the tournament? No, we don't. It could've been specific losses on their resume, it could've been their record against eliete (top-50) teams. It could've been their SOS. 45 might've been more then good enough in the eyes of the committee, but other factors left them out. It could even be that every piece of their resume was good enough, but someone else was simply more impressive in some way.

[DRAKELAWPANTHER]

I certainly don't think SIU's a$$-whooping of Bradley yesterday on national TV helped Bradley's chances. I think it's going to be close between them and MSU.

[Newsbreaker]

According to kenpom (the only daily updating RPI I trust at all) we are currently 26th. This makes me a little nervous, only that a 3 or 4 spot move isn't impossible this week. Hopefully we stay top-30. SIU is 30th now, with Bradley at 34 and Creighton at 42.

The Valley picture:

SIU is in, with a low seed (10-11).
WSU is in (RPI 28) with an 8 or 9.
UNI is in (RPI 27) with a 9 or 10.

That, in my estimation right now, leaves 1 seat open. We COULD get 5 teams, but to plan as much is silly. We have to wait and see how the other tournaments fall out (FYI, in deciding who you want to win, you just want bubble teams to lose. You also want 'lock' teams to lose, EXCEPT those who lead 1 bid leagues.) We may get an additional bid or two, but we won't know that for days. Right now...4 bids.

So it's either Bradley or MSU.

I have MSU at 4-8 vs the top-50 RPI if I counted correctly. Thier "best" non-conf game was Arkansas with an RPI of 45, and that was a loss.

Bradley is 7-6 vs Top-50, again with no impressive non-conference wins. Their only non-conf game at all is vs. DePaul, and they only have an RPI of 89.

With the poorer RPI, but the hot finish and the better record vs good teams, I think Bradely gets in and MSU sets a record for best record NOT to get an at-large bid. MSU needs that 5th bid, and Creighton needs a miracle.

[ceaser150]

Some of you guys are making an inaccurate and unwarrented leap of logic here. You're assuming that becasue specific RPI's were 'good' or 'bad' for a team in the past, that the information carries similar weight and will matter again this year.

There is no rule that a team with an RPI above "x" is in or out. RPI is one piece of a puzzle. There are times when teams are left out for a team with a poorer RPI then they have.

WSU had an RPI of 45 last year. Yes, but do we know that this piece of information is what kept them out of the tournament? No, we don't. It could've been specific losses on their resume, it could've been their record against eliete (top-50) teams. It could've been their SOS. 45 might've been more then good enough in the eyes of the committee, but other factors left them out. It could even be that every piece of their resume was good enough, but someone else was simply more impressive in some way.

Texas, Iowa and UAB got in with RPIs in the 40s last year. Iowa St and NC St got in last year with RPIs in the 60s. It was strong finishes and good performances in conference tournaments that got most of those teams in. WSU was denied because of a late season swoon, similar to what happened to us this year. Luckily, we have the depth of the conference and some signature wins to hang our hat on, which WSU didn't have last year.

[UNI MadCat]

Some of you guys are making an inaccurate and unwarrented leap of logic here. You're assuming that becasue specific RPI's were 'good' or 'bad' for a team in the past, that the information carries similar weight and will matter again this year.

I understand what you are saying but its an undeniable fact that no team 33 or better has ever been left out. That was the key difference that Merk wasn't considering and I was alluding too. I just dont see any logical argument that could possibly prove to me why this #26 RPI team would not get in when ever other #26 RPI team has, especially with wins or LSU, Iowa & Bucknell.

As Clark Kellogg said yesterday, "That's an NCAA at-large resume right there."

[UNI MadCat]

Texas, Iowa and UAB got in with RPIs in the 40s last year. Iowa St and NC St got in last year with RPIs in the 60s. It was strong finishes and good performances in conference tournaments that got most of those teams in. WSU was denied because of a late season swoon, similar to what happened to us this year. Luckily, we have the depth of the conference and some signature wins to hang our hat on, which WSU didn't have last year.

I agree on why they were left out.

This "Last 10" is getting blown out of proportion. Its important for figuring out those last teams. UNI is not one of those last teams, barring a huge change in RPI (and I'm talking 8-10 spots here, and even then, I dont see it).

Folks, it was a tough finish, no doubt... but lets sit back and relax because that schedule we played at the beginning of the year is going to be paying HUGE dividends in about 6 days. This is what I will be doing on Sunday (assuming I was a banana!).

[GonzoCat]

MSU is in period, take it to the bank, and Bradley makes 5.

Yes RPI isn't everything, if your RPI is in the 40's you might get passed by teams in the 50's or 60's due to other factors. Even on extremely rare occassions a team with an RPI in the 30's will get passed, but MSU's RPI is freaking 21, the best of all MVC teams. I don't know how it got so low, but unless they discover an input error, they are in. An RPI of 21 is everything you need.

[UNI MadCat]

In the last 7 years ~45 teams have received at-larges with 5-5 or worse records in the last ten (30, 5-5s & 2, 3-7s) including every single team 30 or better in the RPI.

Am I picking & choosing stats? Maybe... but not a single stat is telling me to be worried when you look at the whole picture.