Championship Week "Who do I cheer for Tonight?" List

[UNI MadCat]

Well, PTTB is right... it wasn't great. We "technically" went 7-7 yesterday (see updates above) but, I agree, it could have been a lot better on the bubble teams. I think Cal losing was big though b/c they are now under-500 and even if they beat ASU on Saturday, if they could lose in the 1st round of the Pac10T, then they'll be eliminated from post-season consideration (currently, they reside a spot ahead of us in the RPI).

Friday's list coming up shortly.

[UNI MadCat]

Don't let the lack of big names and number of games fool you. There are some big ones today.

For games on March 2nd --
First off, this is all pretty much moot if we don't point out the big one. UNI OVER Bradley at 2:35 p.m. today!!

Cheering for RPI Help
Loyola over UIC - In any scenario, is it worse to have Loyola creep into the top 100 RPI? We're 7-7 vs T-100 right now. If so, then cheer for a loss instead.

Cheering for Losses to Bubble Teams (Both NCAA & NIT* Bubbles)
New Hampshire over Albany*
College of Charleston over Appy St - I think its still debatable if we want Appy to win or lose. They are going to the NIT regardless and we dont want them taking Davidson's spot. Then again, if Davidson loses we don't want there to be a third team in the postseason, thus taking away a bid in either a 3 or 4 letter form - regardless, one of the 97 open spots.

Cheering for No "Extra" NIT Bids
East Tennessee St over Lipscomb
Austin Peay over Samford
Davidson over Furman

MVC Games:
Honestly, I'm torn. I want the easiest road to the dance. But I also want the most RPI help. A win over Bradley & Drake and a loss to Wichita does a lot less than wins over BU and SIU and a loss to CU. But I like our chances better against the former. Despite that...

• SIU over Drake - If Drake were to win today, that would likely mean another 2 games under in the top 100, making us 7-10 or 7-9. I honestly don't know if that is good or not?
• WSU over MSU - WSU is on the NIT bubble and will slide out with a loss. I would hate to have them creep back in it and ever have it come down to "UNI or WSU?" in NIT talk as I think WSU would get the nod due to name recognition. EDIT: THAT BEING SAID, PER MEDIAPANTHER'S POST, I THINK HE HAS A POINT SO I HAVE FLIP-FLOPPED. LIKE I SAID, I'M TORN ON THESE.
• Creighton over ISU - I just can't see the benefits of an InSt upset. Plus, its not going to happen so I don't want to even ponder it.

[MediaPanther]

If we have any sort of chance for an at-large wouldn't we want MSU to lose and possibly knock them out? Then the Valley has just two locks and I would think it would be hard to only take 2 Valley teams. I think we should let the NIT worry about itself and hope for anything in the world that will give us a shot at the Dance.

[BCPanther]

I don't know... That is a toughie, Media...

I would think for At-Large chances that we would want them to beat WSU and lose to CU. Their win over WSU would give them another top 100 win. In the end it would improve CU's RPI and in the end out RPI would improve even with a loss to CU...

My head hurts thinking about all of this RPI stuff. Lets just win the whole damn thing so we don't have to worry about it...

[UNI MadCat]

If we have any sort of chance for an at-large wouldn't we want MSU to lose and possibly knock them out? Then the Valley has just two locks and I would think it would be hard to only take 2 Valley teams. I think we should let the NIT worry about itself and hope for anything in the world that will give us a shot at the Dance.

You raise a good point that had kind of slipped my mind with all of this and that concerning all the games. I think you are probably right. WSU isn't getting an at-large. If they win today, MSU's RPI drops to the mid-40s and, frankly, I think they might slip to bubble talk. As we've talked about over the week, our best case scenario for RPI if we don't win it all is probably 48-50 with the slightest chance of getting into the top 45. I think if you compared us to MSU it would be tough to pick us over them for any other reason than we would have made it to the championship game. The factors against us are that we don't have 20 wins (they do), our non-con SOS needs some S.O.S. (190, compared to 49) and they've received the most hype this year.

Still though, I think you are right... I'll make the switch accordingly.

[MediaPanther]

I just wanted to throw that out there. I don't know if a MSU lose will be enough. After last year's debacle it would be hard for them not to make it and their win against Wisconsin is still being talked about. The most confusing thing is figuring out how our strength of schedule and RPI will be affected. It's way too much for me. I agree with Brett....let's just make it impossible to be left out.

[Panthers to the Bone]

I think MSU winning tonight was best...especially after the UNI loss today. We want Bradley to win it all, and have 4 teams in the NCAA's. The NIT is most likely going to get at least one MVC team in their tourney. It's hard to take WSU over UNI.

[BCPanther]

I think that Bradley is in with a win today. I think if that happens the Valley is a 4 bid league.

The NIT is not going to shut the valley out and I would almost think that both us and WSU will get in...

[Panthers to the Bone]

Brett, I don't see Wichita getting in. UNI has the better chance of the two, but I don't see Wichita in the NIT (hopefully both are, but I don't forcast it with their 90's RPI).

[BCPanther]

Oh, your right, I was thinking that their RPI was in the upper 70s/ low 80s...

[jman2004]

I watched a show on ESPNU yesterday breaking down the whole selection process. Did anyone else see this? It was pretty interesting.

Jay Bilas was talking about RPI and how useful it can be but then brought up that a mock discussion was held among committee members choosing the field and not ONCE, was RPI even brought up.

[UNI MadCat]

Sorry I haven't been feeling as "up" for scoreboard watching today. I can tell you that E. Kentucky's win just eliminated an at-large spot for the NIT by nipping Austin Peay in the closing seconds. Not good news.

[BCPanther]

East Tennessee State also took an RPI bid. They got CRUSHED by Belmont...

[Panthers to the Bone]

Games for Sunday, teams we want to see win:

Vermont (NIT LOCK)
Holy Cross (NIT LOCK)
Bucknell
South Alabama
Alabama
Central Michigan
VCU (NIT LOCK)
Central Connecticut (NIT LOCK)
Old Dominion
Buffalo
Marist (NIT LOCK)
UMKC
St. Mary's

[UNI MadCat]

Going over the numbers... I'd say its very, very, very iffy that we will get in. If we do, it will basically be on reputation and the strength of our conference. What hurts, besides the auto-bids, is the reduction from 40 to 32 teams. The selection procedures weren't set in stone back in the early part of the decade (when it was 32 teams) as they are now but teams with +75 RPIs that were selected typically had either 20+ wins from a mid-major or were from a BCS school. Again, its more standardized now but, as you can see, we don't fit either of those profiles.

Our RPI rose to 79 last night.

I'm not closing the door but more or less hoping for a minor miracle at this point... and it starts by hoping for no minor conf upsets.