Championship Week "Who do I cheer for Tonight?" List

[Panthers to the Bone]

Madcat-
Something to think about is that UNI has more top 50 wins than all but 8 others outside the top 50 RPI (that includes teams that are currently tied with UNI). UNI played a strong schedule vs. the top 50 RPI teams, and hopefully that is worth something to the Selection Committee.

[Panthers to the Bone]

So far, we are 7-5...two NIT locks were busted. With Old Dominion losing, George Mason now has the opportunity to steal another post season bid. If they lose, they are probably out of post-season consideration...probably.
Vermont (NIT LOCK)---Won
Holy Cross (NIT LOCK)---Won
Bucknell---Won
South Alabama NIT LOCK)---Lost
Alabama---Lost
Central Michigan---Lost
VCU (NIT LOCK)---Won
Central Connecticut (NIT LOCK)---Won
Old Dominion---Lost
Buffalo---Won
Marist (NIT LOCK)---Lost
UMKC---Won
St. Mary's---Later

[UNI MadCat]

Thanks for picking up the slack PTTB. I don't have the heart right now. Seeing South Alabama lose to the 9-seed in their conf tourney made me feel like it might just not be our year. Last year there were 5 NIT auto-bids by Selection Sunday. We're 7 days away and already have 4, plus 8 less teams admitted.

It also appears that our RPI dropped once again, now to 79. I think we need to stay there or better. Bucknell jumped ahead of us to 78. We definitely want to cheer against them in their championship game.

[Khan4Cats]

Small viewing sample for tonight, but some important games towards keeping as many NIT slots open.

CAA Final: George Mason vs Virginia Commonwealth: want VCU to win to keep George Mason on the NIT bubble. VCU and one other from the CAA are likely in the NCAA, two others will likely be in the NIT with GMU as the 3rd NIT candidate if they lose, if they win then there are still 4 CAA teams worthy of postseason spots, just where?

MAAC Final: Niagara vs Siena: cheer for whomever you feel like. Marist losing yesterday took an NIT slot, the loser of this game is a weak NIT bubble team (100+ RPI)

WCC Final: Gonzaga vs Santa Clara: Gonzaga will play in the postseason somewhere, Santa Clara is right around 100 RPI, want the Zags to win this one and keep SC on the bubble.

Sun Belt semis: Western Kentucky vs Arkansas State, north Texas vs Middle Tennessee: well South Alabama took an NIT slot with their loss yesterday which leaves Western Kentucky as an NIT bubble should they lose. I doubt two teams make the NIT from the Sun Belt, but to be safe root for Western Kentucky to get the NCAA bid, none of the others are more than weak NIT teams.

Mid-Con Semis: Oakland vs UMKC, Oral Roberts vs IUPUI: Oral Roberts has the NIT guarantee, so they are the ones we want to win then NCAA bid, Oakland is a weak NIT team (120ish RPI) and a UMKC helps our RPI so that's who we want to lose to Oral Roberts in the championship.

Regular season make-up: Oklahoma State at Nebraska: I know some are hoping for an OkSt loss to keep them on the wrong side of the NCAA bubble, but they are a postseason lock and Nebraska has an RPI just over 100. A Husker win would put them on the NIT bubble, I say go with OSU and hope for an early exit from the Big XII tourney to pop their bubble to help MoState and/or Bradley.

[Panthers to the Bone]

I agree 100% with those picks Khan. The only thing I would add is that George Mason will not get into the NIT, neither will Siena/Niagara. The only team with hopes of getting into the NIT would be Santa Clara...but I think they would get snuffed out with their 100ish RPI.

[UNI MadCat]

Check my math/logic on this one guys...

• Post Season Spots (NCAA/NIT): 97
• NCAA At-Larges: 30
• NCAA Auto-Bids: 35
• NIT Auto-Bids (to-date): 4 - S. Alabama, E. Tenn St, Austin Peay, Marist
• NCAA Qualifiers outside of Top 97 RPI (to-date + guaranteed): 8 -- Belmont, E. Kent, Mid-Con, Metro Atlantic, Big Sky, Northeast, Mid-Eastern, SWAC
• NIT At-Larges (to-date): 28
• RPI "Cutoff" Line: 85 [97 - (4+8)] -- that is assuming they went straight by RPI. However, there is an arbitrary "cutoff" line where the selection comittee switches from going straight down the line and instead starts to "cherry pick" its teams. Again, there is no telling what that number of teams is, but last year it was 8. Assuming it is 8 again... that makes the "magic RPI #" 77. We're two spots away from that number, but, of course, with each NIT Autobid, that number goes lower.

My math and thought process might be way out of wack here but I believe this basically tells me that we are about as squarely on the NIT bubble as can be. If they look at what we hope they do, and that is our 4 wins over T-50 teams, then that will help. However if they look at our overall record and our performance down the stretch, plus our SOS, compared to those around us, then we are SOL.

[ceaser150]

Here is a breakdown of the NIT field I found on another website. Looks like UNI is about as firmly on the bubble as you can be. We can afford no other NIT auto bids.

Last 4 out:
Illinois (21-10)
Kansas St (21-10)
West Virginia (20-8)
Bradley (20-12)

Next 8 out, in order. These are teams with better than a 1% chance of a bid:
Clemson (21-9)
Michigan (20-11)
Florida St (19-11)
Georgia (16-12)
Alabama (20-10)
Appalachian St (22-7)
Massachusetts (23-7)
San Diego St (19-9)


I'll revisit these teams' profiles if they get to their conference title game. But even that might not be enough.

New Mexico St (21-8)
Mississippi (19-11)
Mississippi St (17-12)
Arkansas (18-12)
Washington (18-12)
Iowa (17-13)
DePaul (17-12)
Providence (18-11)
Oklahoma St (19-10)
Missouri (18-11)


There are 10 NIT spots left.

4 autobids:
South Alabama (18-11)
Austin Peay (19-11)
Marist (24-8)
East Tennessee St (22-9)

Last 6 in:
Utah St (20-10)
Hofstra (21-9)
Akron (23-6)
Northern Iowa (17-13)
Wichita St (16-14)
George Washington (22-8)

If someone like LSU or UConn goes to the NIT, there should be a federal investigation.

Last teams out of the NIT:
Fresno St (22-8)
Santa Clara (20-9)
Bucknell (22-8)
St John's (16-14)

http://www.pjstarforums.com/sports/viewtopic.php?t=51026&start=300

[Panthers to the Bone]

UNI road wins vs. the top 100 RPI teams: 5
Next closest team vs. the top 100 RPI teams on the road (RPI #60-100): 4 (Appalachian State)
The rest are at 3 or fewer.
RPI Range 50-60= only USC has the same number or road/neutral wins as UNI
Only 2 others have 4 top 50 road wins...the rest have fewer...including Davidson, West Virginia, Michiga, San Diego State, and Ole Miss (in the 50-60 RPI range) with ZERO top 100 road wins.

[UNI MadCat]

PTTB -- Do you think its better or worse for Loyola to be top 100?

[UNI MadCat]

Here is a breakdown of the NIT field I found on another website. Looks like UNI is about as firmly on the bubble as you can be. We can afford no other NIT auto bids.

Agreed Ceas. This morning I was thinking we could survive one or two at most.

[Panthers to the Bone]

Better...as long as it doesn't knock Wichita out of the top 100

[Khan4Cats]

Last night was not bad for us. UMKC almost pulled off a win that would have been nice for our RPI, but we didn't really take a hit with their loss. VCU came back to keep an NIT slot open and Gonzaga rose to the occasion to preserve another. Western Kentucky's loss probably knocks them off the NIT bubble and Oklahoma State's loss probably sealed their NIT fate, which could mean an opening for a third Valley team.

Tonight's games, not many but a couple with importance.

The Big Sky semi-finals are tonight and Weber State needs to win to keep them in line for the NCAA bid without using the NIT guarantee.

The Mid-Con final is between Oakland and Oral Roberts, we need ORU to win as they have the guarantee, Oakland would then drop out of the NIT bubble most likely as well.

The Sun Belt final does not matter as South Alabama has the NIT guarantee taken, and neither of the finalists is an NIT threat, pick a team a cheer or whatever.

The other Tourneys that start (MEAC, MWC, WAC) all have teams that have only one chance for postseason play, so they will have no immediate impact.

[BCPanther]

I just hope that its not the SWAC and MEAC that end up costing us an NIT Bid. Those teams travel all over playing any guarantee game that they can get.... If you are willing to be anybody's patsy, your league does not deserve postseason, IMO...

[UNI MadCat]

For pure enjoyment, the Horizon League final should be a good game. It has no bearing on us either way as Butler is a NCAA lock and Wright St is taking up a spot in one tourney or the other as they got the NIT autobid (according to everything I've heard - they tied Butler for the title but got their tourney's 1 seed).

[Khan4Cats]

For pure enjoyment, the Horizon League final should be a good game. It has no bearing on us either way as Butler is a NCAA lock and Wright St is taking up a spot in one tourney or the other as they got the NIT autobid (according to everything I've heard - they tied Butler for the title but got their tourney's 1 seed).

Oops, forgot about that game because I figured both teams were in postseason. Would be cool to see Butler win because that keeps open an NCAA bid for MoSt or BU, and Wright State could be an interesting NIT opponent. Mainly because their arena is hosting the "play-in" game and is a first round site I believe, which would probably mean they would have to play on the road..... Wishing, wishing....