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Post-Season Breakdown

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  • #1

    Post-Season Breakdown

    This is just my opinion (locks for NCAA's, etc...), but something to keep an eye on. I tried to be conservative (which is why you note CU/MSU not being 'locks'). If you see a team BOLDED, that means they are the automatic bid from their conference tourney. If you see 'LOCK', it means that they are locked in at minimum to the NIT, as they won their conference regular season tourney, which guarantees them post-season play in the NIT (again, at minimum). These are the teams you want to see win their conference tourneys.

    In (56 Locks)---31 Autos:
    ACC (6): UNC, Maryland, Duke, Va Tech, Boston College, Virginia
    SEC (4): Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt
    Pac-10 (4): Oregon, UCLA, Washington St., Arizona
    Big 10 (4): Ohio State, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan St.
    Big East (6): Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Notre Dame, Villanova, Louisville
    MVC (2): Creighton, SIU
    Big 12 (3): Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas
    MWC (2): UNLV, BYU
    WAC (2): New Mexico State, Nevada
    C-USA (1): Memphis
    Horizon (2): Wright State, Butler
    Ivy (1): Pennsylvania
    Big South (1): Winthrop
    Atlantic Sun (1): Belmont
    Southern (1): Davidson
    OVC (1): Eastern Kentucky
    CAA (1): Virginia Commonwealth
    West Coast (1): Gonzaga
    MAAC (1): Niagara
    Mid-Con (1): Oral Roberts
    Sun Belt (1): North Texas
    NEC (1): Central Connecticut
    Big Sky (1): Weber State
    Patriot League (1): Holy Cross
    MEAC (1): Florida A&M
    SWAC (1): Jackson State
    American East (1): Albany
    Big West (1): Long Beach State
    MAC (1): Miami (OH)
    A-10 (1): George Washington
    Southland (1): Texas A&M-Corpus Christie

    Bubble (22)---9 NCAA + 13 NIT:
    ACC (3): Georgia Tech (52), Clemson (47), Florida St. (42)
    SEC (3): Bama (48), Ole Miss (57), Arkansas (37)
    Pac-10 (2): USC (38), Stanford (66)
    Big 10 (3): Illinois (31), Purdue (41), Michigan
    Big East (2): Syracuse (51), W. Virginia (59)
    MVC (2): Missouri St. (35), Bradley (39)
    Big 12 (3): Kansas State (56), Texas Tech (53), Oklahoma State (44)
    MWC (1): Air Force (32)
    A-10 (1): Xavier (33)
    CAA (2): Old Dominion (40), Drexel (45)

    NIT Automatic Locks (8):
    Atlantic Sun: East Tennessee St. (LOCK)
    OVC: Austin Peay (LOCK)
    Metro Atlantic: Marist (LOCK)
    Sun Belt: South Alabama (LOCK)
    MAC: Toledo (LOCK)
    MEAC: Delaware St. (LOCK)
    SWAC: Mississippi Valley State (LOCK)
    American East: Vermont (LOCK)

    NIT At-Large Locks (6):
    Utah State (22-10)
    UMass (23-8)
    Appalachian State (22-7)
    Georgia (17-13)
    San Diego State (19-10)
    DePaul (17-13)

    NIT Possibilities (22):
    ACC (1): North Carolina State (17-14)---98 RPI
    SEC (2): Mississippi St. (18-12)---58 RPI, LSU (17-15)---89
    Pac-10 (1): Washington (19-13)---79 RPI
    Big 10 (1): Iowa (17-14)---92 RPI
    Big East (2): Providence (18-12)---76 RPI, UConn (17-14)---111 RPI
    MVC (2): UNI (18-13)---81 RPI, Wichita St. (17-14)---99 RPI
    Big 12 (3): Mizzou (18-12)---90 RPI, Oklahoma (15-15)--101 RPI, Nebraska (15-14)---103
    WAC (1): Fresno State 22-9--85 RPI
    A-10 (3): St. Joes (17-14)--94, SLU (19-13)--73, Dayton (19-12)--75
    CAA (1): Hofstra (21-9)---72 RPI
    MAC (2): Akron (25-6)---60 RPI, Kent State (20-11)---83 RPI
    WCC (1): Santa Clara (20-10)---97
    Sun Belt: Western Kentucky (21-11)---95 RPI
    Patriot: Bucknell (22-9)---78 RPI
    Last edited by Panthers to the Bone; 03-13-2007, 09:03 AM.
    The Lord reigns, let the earth be glad; let the distant shores rejoice, clouds and thick darkness surround Him; righteousness and justice are the foundation of His throne. Fire goes before Him, and consumes his foes on every side; His lightning lights up the world; the earth sees and trembles; the mountains melt like wax before the Lord of all the earth. The heavens proclaim His righteousness and all peoples will see His glory.
    Tags: None
  • #2
    pttb who is this quote referring to?

    "Personally, I think he feels DePaul is a little bit better school (than UNI). I don't think so."---Brent Barz

    Comment

    • #3
      Mike Bizoukas. Decommitted to UNI to go to DePaul that is why we have an extra Scholly...

      Comment

      • #4
        Hey PTTB, I have a question that I think you might know the answer to. In the Horizon league Wright St and Butler tied for the conference title in the reg season. Wright St actually has the #1 seed. While we don't want them to win it all and take the NCAA bid... are they a "lock" for the NIT as the auto-bid? If not then I actually want them to lose in the semis. But if they receive the auto-bid anyway, then I'd rather have them meet Butler in the finals.

        Comment

        • #5
          i think wright state will be an auto qualifier for the NIT if they dont make the big dance. Also, you can prolly add GT and Virginia to the near lock list after GT beat NC last night and Virginia beat VT.

          Comment

          • #6
            Yes, Wright State will get the bid to the NIT if they don't win the conference tourney. I don't think it matters who wins in the Horizon, b/c they will have at least 2 teams make the post-season. Butler will make the NCAA's regardless, of what happens. Loyola could help out the Panthers RPI if they win, but then again, we don't want them to win the Horizon League, b/c that would make 3 guaranteed Horizon teams in. I'm really a little perplexed with how we want that to turn out.

            BTW, Penn won the Ivy league and have punched their ticket.
            The Lord reigns, let the earth be glad; let the distant shores rejoice, clouds and thick darkness surround Him; righteousness and justice are the foundation of His throne. Fire goes before Him, and consumes his foes on every side; His lightning lights up the world; the earth sees and trembles; the mountains melt like wax before the Lord of all the earth. The heavens proclaim His righteousness and all peoples will see His glory.

            Comment

            • #7
              Teams we want to see win Saturday:
              Bradley
              Nevada
              Winthrop*NIT Lock
              Davidson*NIT Lock
              East Tennessee State*NIT Lock
              Austin Peay*NIT Lock
              Marist*NIT Lock
              VCU*NIT Lock
              Wright State*NIT Lock
              Drexel
              Miami
              Kansas State
              Maryland
              Texas A&M
              Old Dominion
              UTEP

              Missouri State/Creighton...the more I think about it, I think that Creighton is in...as I do MSU. So, what team winning benefits UNI more...I think MSU does b/c UNI has a win over MSU.
              The Lord reigns, let the earth be glad; let the distant shores rejoice, clouds and thick darkness surround Him; righteousness and justice are the foundation of His throne. Fire goes before Him, and consumes his foes on every side; His lightning lights up the world; the earth sees and trembles; the mountains melt like wax before the Lord of all the earth. The heavens proclaim His righteousness and all peoples will see His glory.

              Comment

              • #8
                Originally posted by Panthers to the Bone View Post
                Yes, Wright State will get the bid to the NIT if they don't win the conference tourney. I don't think it matters who wins in the Horizon, b/c they will have at least 2 teams make the post-season.
                Total opinion on my part, but I think the Horizon isn't too far away from being a two bid league. The Horizon is probably now far ahead of where the Valley was a few years ago before the resurgence. I glanced at the All-Horizon team in the Trib a couple of days ago. Butler had three players (not sure, could've been four) on the first or second team...all juniors.

                Comment

                • #9
                  Originally posted by Panthers to the Bone View Post
                  Teams we want to see win Saturday:
                  Bradley
                  Nevada
                  Winthrop*NIT Lock
                  Davidson*NIT Lock
                  East Tennessee State*NIT Lock
                  Austin Peay*NIT Lock
                  Marist*NIT Lock
                  VCU*NIT Lock
                  Wright State*NIT Lock
                  Drexel
                  Miami
                  Kansas State
                  Maryland
                  Texas A&M
                  Old Dominion
                  UTEP

                  Missouri State/Creighton...the more I think about it, I think that Creighton is in...as I do MSU. So, what team winning benefits UNI more...I think MSU does b/c UNI has a win over MSU.
                  I agree with these. The four conference title games need to go with the favorites: E Tenn St, Winthrop, Austin Peay, and Davidson. I think the A-Sun, Big South and OVC are all only 1 post-season bids if their regular season champs win. Appy State is likely an NIT team and Winthrop is probably in the NCAA but College of Charleston is an NIT bubble and a loss may push them out entirely.

                  I also think we may have to root for Iowa to win today to help our RPI and then lose in the first round of the Big 10 Tourney to burst their NIT bubble. The other big one is Maryland, they can knock NCState off the NIT bubble with a W.

                  This year makes an even more interesting championship week bubble watch, I think we are in, but we need the 1-bid NCAA conferences to not push their conference champions into the NIT.

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Winthrop plays VMI in their title game today. VMI's RPI is 302.

                    VCU is a scary one because that league is pretty good and my guess is that they do end up in the NIT.

                    In the Horizon we are screwed either way. If Butler wins the tourney, Wright St. is in the NIT. If Wright State wins the tourney, Butler still gets in and knocks a bubble team into the NIT...

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      I guess I don't worry about Butler or Wright State in the Horizon, both will be in post-season play, just not sure where. (I think Butler is a near lock for the NCAA if they don't win their tourney, Wright State has the NIT guarantee.) The trouble from that conference is Loyola (or a UW-Green Bay miracle), should Loyola knock off Butler, they improve their NIT resume, but it also helps our RPI as an opponent.... tough call.

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        1 Bid saved- Winthop escaped VMI and won their Tournament. That saves an NIT bid...

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          East Tennessee State is not helping us any. They are down 19 at the half and Belmont has hit an astounding 12 three pointers in the first half. They Scroed Friggin 49 points in the first frame. That's UNBELIEVABLE. Looks like that's one Lock team that will not help us any. Badley also lost so that doesn't help us any either if I'm not mistaken.
                          The Original PURPLE Wig Guy........ GO PANTHERS
                          "You put some dumb red bird, a Hawkeye, and a Panther in a cage, and who do you think is going to win? The Panther would clearly rip the other two to shreds, eat them for dinner (although it would be a small meal for the monstrous beast) and spit out their feathers to make a pillow!"

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Panthers to the Bone View Post
                            Teams we want to see win Saturday:
                            Bradley
                            Nevada
                            Winthrop*NIT Lock
                            Davidson*NIT Lock
                            East Tennessee State*NIT Lock
                            Austin Peay*NIT Lock
                            Marist*NIT Lock
                            VCU*NIT Lock
                            Wright State*NIT Lock
                            Drexel
                            Miami
                            Kansas State
                            Maryland
                            Texas A&M
                            Old Dominion
                            UTEP
                            We went 11-4 in games we wanted to see go UNI's way. Two NIT bids were given up today to teams in the 110's of the RPI. But I think with Loyola losing, they most likely drop out of the NIT contention. Their overall RPI will probably over 100, and keeping them out of the equation.

                            Bradley lost
                            Nevada won
                            Winthrop won
                            Davidson won
                            East Tennessee State lost
                            Austin Peay lost
                            Marist won
                            VCU won
                            Wright State won
                            Drexel won
                            Miami lost (in OT)
                            Kansas State won
                            Maryland won
                            Texas A&M won
                            Old Dominion won
                            UTEP lost
                            The Lord reigns, let the earth be glad; let the distant shores rejoice, clouds and thick darkness surround Him; righteousness and justice are the foundation of His throne. Fire goes before Him, and consumes his foes on every side; His lightning lights up the world; the earth sees and trembles; the mountains melt like wax before the Lord of all the earth. The heavens proclaim His righteousness and all peoples will see His glory.

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              The Breakdown has been fully updated now.
                              The Lord reigns, let the earth be glad; let the distant shores rejoice, clouds and thick darkness surround Him; righteousness and justice are the foundation of His throne. Fire goes before Him, and consumes his foes on every side; His lightning lights up the world; the earth sees and trembles; the mountains melt like wax before the Lord of all the earth. The heavens proclaim His righteousness and all peoples will see His glory.

                              Comment

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