Talking about Playoffs? What are the odds.

[Purrrrrfect]

Re: Talking about Playoffs? What are the odds.

now...don't say I didn't tell ya. updated the standings! Crazy separation saturday!

I'm telling, you we split the last 2...we are in. Been saying it for awhile. Some day some of you will believe me.

[vbfan19]

Re: Talking about Playoffs? What are the odds.

now...don't say I didn't tell ya. updated the standings! Crazy separation saturday!

I'm telling, you we split the last 2...we are in. Been saying it for awhile. Some day some of you will believe me.

I'd rather see UNI win the last two and remove all doubt

[Purrrrrfect]

Re: Talking about Playoffs? What are the odds.

I'd rather see UNI win the last two and remove all doubt

true. Bring on the ugly dawgs

[TravelingPanther]

Re: Talking about Playoffs? What are the odds.

now...don't say I didn't tell ya. updated the standings! Crazy separation saturday!

I'm telling, you we split the last 2...we are in. Been saying it for awhile. Some day some of you will believe me.

What did you tell us? That is was mathematically possible for us to make the playoffs? All you had to do was read AGS to get that all the info in the first post.

You also gave us this gem:

Harvard has a great chance to steal an at large and i'm afraid a MEAC or CAA team will steal another. the bubble is weak but east coast bias is real.

Harvard does not participate in the playoffs, so that would be pretty crazy.

Other than that I see nothing that you "told us".

[Purrrrrfect]

Re: Talking about Playoffs? What are the odds.

What did you tell us? That is was mathematically possible for us to make the playoffs? All you had to do was read AGS to get that all the info in the first post.

You also gave us this gem:

Harvard does not participate in the playoffs, so that would be pretty crazy.

Other than that I see nothing that you "told us".

Just regarding UNI. The Harvard mishap was a mistake I was thinking both ivy and pioneer had gotten an autobid.

I've been discussing my the playoffs long before ags and more in depth.

[TravelingPanther]

Re: Talking about Playoffs? What are the odds.

Just regarding UNI. The Harvard mishap was a mistake I was thinking both ivy and pioneer had gotten an autobid.

I've been discussing my the playoffs long before ags and more in depth.

More in depth? Hard to claim more in depth when you don't even know who is eligible.

Must be all your coaching trophies.

[panther-state]

Re: Talking about Playoffs? What are the odds.

I will attempt to list the teams that are "Locks" (definitely or extremely likely to make the field, barring catastrophe), "On the Bubble" (teams that probably control their own destiny and are on the edge of getting; might need a bit of help outside of winning their last 2 games) and "Left Out" (teams that close but are on the wrong side of the bubble unless they get a lot of help from others over the next two weeks).

I will also note that records are based solely on Division I games. It has been understood that the NCAA committee pretty much only recognizes those games, so I will do the same. All rankings are also according to the November 3rd FCS Coaches Poll

Playoff Breakdown
Automatic Qualifiers (AQ): 11
At-Large Bids:13

Big Sky Conference

Locks

#5 Eastern Washington (8-2, 5-1)
Remaining Games: Portland State (2-7, 2-4)

I'm unaware of the Big Sky's tie-breaking scenario but with Northern Arizona also poised to finish 7-1 in conference play and having won the head-to-head match up, I predict that they finish with the Auto-bid. Eastern Washington won't have any trouble securing an at-large, however, *and* almost certainly being a seeded team.


On the Bubble

Northern Arizona (6-3, 5-1)
Remaining Games: Southern Utah (2-8, 2-4), North Dakota (3-7, 1-5)

Should get the auto-bid if they take care of business these next two weeks. However, if they don't manage to win both of their final games then they could easily miss the playoffs entirely. This team definitely has been perplexing at times with *awful* losses to South Dakota and Northern Colorado and unconvincing wins against some of the Big Sky's worst teams. Yet they've also gone out and eeked out home wins against Cal Poly and Eastern Washington. They've certainly been fortunate to avoid 3 of the conferences other top 5 teams.

Idaho State (5-3, 5-1)
Remaining Games: Montana St (6-3, 5-1), Weber St (1-9, 1-5)

I imagine the Bengals have been the surprise of the Big Sky this season, vaulting to the top of the conference after winning only 7 D-I games in the previous 8 seasons. This has easily been their best season since 2005 when they went 4-6, and the first time they are guaranteed to finish above .500 since 2003 (8-4). They face a tough task this week against Montana St, who we all know is a regular at the top of the Big Sky standings. If the Bengals tame the Bobcats then lowly Weber State is all that stands between ISU and playoff glory. Drop one of those games and they will be watching at home.


#16 Montana State (6-3, 5-1)
Remaining Games: Idaho St (6-3, 5-1), Montana (5-4, 4-2)

The Bobcats haven't really done anything wrong this year, depending on your feelings about Cal Poly, but they haven't done anything spectacular either. They have 2 games left to make a big statement and knock both Idaho State and Montana even more out of the playoff picture. They need both in order to receive an at-large.

#23 Cal Poly (6-4, 5-2)
Remaining Games: UC Davis (0-8, 0-6), San Diego (7-1)

The Mustangs are going to need some help to make the playoffs a possibility, mainly win their last 2 games and hope the other teams in this category stumble. It could happen and they have some decent wins, mainly over the Montana schools, and no horrible losses but it's very unlikely that a 7-4 team makes the field this year given how many other teams will also be battling for those spots.

#10 Montana (5-4, 4-2)
Remaining Games: Southern Utah (2-8, 2-4), Montana St (6-3, 5-1)

Their ranking is the only thing keeping them in the conversation for me. No impressive wins, no horrible losses, just a mediocre resume based on the eye test. They'll fall a little bit after a 10 pt loss to EWU, but not much. Win the last two games and they're probably still in the Top 15 of the rankings and right on the very edge...plus they'll have knocked out Montana St. Lose one and it's over. Only 6 D-I wins, in a season where they are many 7 win teams trying to make their case? Nope. Just win, baby.


Conference Prediction:
Northern Arizona (AQ)
Eastern Washington
Montana State


Big South Conference

Locks

#2 Coastal Carolina (10-0, 3-0)
Remaining Games: Monmouth (5-4, 0-3), Liberty (6-3, 3-0)

Not much to discuss here. Beat Liberty and they'll not only receive the auto-bid but likely get a Top 3 seed (at worst) in the playoff field.

On the Bubble

Liberty (6-3, 3-0)
Remaining Games: Charleston Southern (5-3, 2-2), Coastal Carolina (10-0, 3-0)

Unless they beat Coastal and take the auto-bid I think it’s going to be tough for them to make it. They'll be sitting at 7-4 and face the same conundrum that fair amount of other teams will have on Selection Sunday. I really don't think they deserve an at-large, but I also didn't think a 7-5 Furman deserved one last year. I have no faith in the competence of the Selection Committee and Liberty is one of those eastern teams that worms their way in. Did I just talk myself into picking them? Yup.

Left Out

Charleston Southern (5-3, 2-2)
Remaining Games: Liberty (6-3, 3-0), Georgia (7-2)

If you think CSU will beat Liberty *and* Georgia, then yes, they belong in the playoffs at 7-3. But it ain't happenin'.

Conference Prediction:
Coastal Carolina (AQ)
Liberty


Colonial Athletic Association

Locks

#3 New Hampshire (8-1, 6-0)
Remaining Games: Delaware (6-4, 4-2), Maine (4-5, 3-3)

With two very winnable games, although not "gimmes", to end the season, UNH should be sitting pretty at 10-1 with an auto-bid and a Top 3 seed. Lose one and things get interesting...

#7 Villanova (8-2, 5-1)
Remaining Games: Albany (6-4, 2-4), Delaware (6-4, 4-2)

Just like New Hampshire, take care of business in the last two and you're a seeded team. Who knows, there might even be a crazy scenario where the Wildcats overtake the *other* Wildcats (UNH) for the auto-bid. Either way, Villanova is in.

On the Bubble

Delaware (6-4, 4-2)
Remaining Games: Villanova (8-2, 5-1), New Hampshire (8-1, 6-0)

Oh boy, talk about a mountain to climb. But hey, if the Blue Hens do the seemingly impossible and take down the two titans at the top, they'll be in. Not sure how they wouldn't be at 8-4 with 2 top 10 wins to end the season.

James Madison (7-3, 4-2)
Remaining Games: Richmond (7-3, 4-2), Elon (1-9, 0-6)

Win both and you're in. Lose one and it could be interesting. The "Dukes" have a lot more going for them though than any of those Big Sky teams and company sitting with 7 D-I wins.

#8 Richmond (7-3, 4-2)
Remaining Games: James Madison (7-3, 4-2), William & Mary (1-9, 0-6)

The loss to Maine hurt and keeps them from being a "lock" for me. Yes they are #8 but at 7-3, if they were to lose the last 2 they'll have popped their own bubbles. Win 1 more and I don't think they can be held out.

#25 William & Mary (6-4, 3-3)
Remaining Games: Towson (4-6, 2-4), Richmond (7-3, 4-2)

I really think the Tribe have to win the last two in order to make it. Much better shot of making it than Delaware but I think their resume just doesn't have much "Oomph!" to it. Not sure if the rankings come into play much but finishing 1-1 over the next 2 weeks won't move them dramatically. There's 24 spots. They're still in #20-25. There are several teams outside of the Top 25 that will snag some AQ's . This is one of the issues Northern Iowa faced last year. 7-5 with a #20-25 spot. It didn't work out well. The Furmans of the world somehow take priority over better programs because they finish high in their mid-low tier conferences. Prepare to be disappointed if you split. Just accept it right now.

Left Out

Albany (6-4, 2-4)
Remaining Games: Villanova (8-2, 5-1), Stony Brook (3-6, 3-3)'

It was a great start to the season for the Great Danes, but they have crashed back to earth after having to play decent competition in conference play. With a 5th conference loss likely on the way with Villanova looming, Albany will have to settle for watching several CAA companions continue their seasons.

Conference Prediction:
New Hampshire (AQ)
Villanova
Richmond
James Madison


Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

On the Bubble

#18 Bethune-Cookman (7-2, 5-1)
Remaining Games: Hampton (1-8, 1-5), Florida A&M (2-8, 2-4)

Even if they don't get the auto-bid (don't possess the tiebreaker with SC St.), they could possibly get an at-large. They'll be in that Top 15 range if they win the last 2. The MEAC somehow got 2 last year, and as expected was very underwhelming, but I bet they get 2 again. Probably even the same 2!

South Carolina State
Remaining Games: Morgan St (4-5, 4-2), Norfolk St (4-6, 4-2)

Firmly in the drivers seat for the auto-bid as they face middling (yet somehow in the conference race) MSU and NSU to end the season. They own the head-to-head tiebreaker if all 3 5-1 MEAC teams finish the season without another loss. Even with a slip-up the committee will probably give the MEAC an at-large.

North Carolina A&T
Remaining Games: Savannah St (0-9, 0-7), North Carolina Central (4-5, 4-2)

Savannah St is one of the worst in the country...nothing is impossible, but c'mon. If the Aggies win their last two they're still hoping one of the MEAC teams I mentioned above drops a game. If the NCAA gave the MEAC 3 bids then I propose we riot. Seriously, there is no justification for giving this league more than 1 at-large (even that if too much IMO).

Conference Prediction:
SC State (AQ)
Bethune-Cookman

[panther-state]

Re: Talking about Playoffs? What are the odds.

Missouri Valley Football Conference
Locks
#1 North Dakota St (9-1, 5-1)
Games Remaining: Missouri St (4-6, 1-5), Youngstown St (7-3, 4-2)

The goal remains the same. The winning streak may be over but the title streak is still very much alive. I’d hate to be anyone that has to play the Bison over the next few weeks. Still the best team in the FCS IMO. Top 3 seed if they get back on track for the last 2 games.

#12 Illinois State (8-1, 5-1)
Games Remaining: South Dakota (2-8, 0-6), Southern Illinois (6-4, 3-3)

Hey, they could still win a conference title folks! I’m not sure of the tiebreaker either but they won’t play NDSU so this could get interesting. Don’t write off SIU for the final game either but I have to imagine that ISU has done enough to secure their spot. They should honestly be in the hunt for a seed too.


On the Bubble

#13 Youngstown St (7-3, 4-2)
Remaining Games: Indiana St (6-4, 3-3), NDSU (9-1, 5-1)

Probably still a loss on the schedule with NDSU and nothing is a given with Indiana St this year, but even then they should have enough of a resume to see themselves through. To be fair to other teams in the same situation and the committee’s reluctance to give MVFC teams credit for being the best conference, they should just go ahead and win 1 more.

#19 Indiana St (6-4, 3-3)
Remaining Games: YSU (7-3, 4-2), Western Illinois (4-6, 2-4)
Ugh, ISUb’s loss this weekend to SDSU really stacks the odds against them. They need 2 wins. Plain and simple. YSU will be a tall order and WIU has been scrappy and played NDSU and Illinois St very tough, but there is no beating around the bush here. 7 wins probably isn’t enough given that the MVFC doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt over east coast teams.

#20 Northern Iowa (6-4, 4-2)
Remaining Games: Southern Illinois (6-4, 3-3), Missouri St (4-6, 1-5)

Wow, what a difference two weeks makes! The sky has suddenly unfallen and the Panthers are squarely back in the conversation. However, a matchup with SIU in Carbondale has not been kind to UNI in the past. If they don’t win this week then I fear they suffer the same fate as Indiana St. Easily a top 15 team, but a brutal schedule (all 4 losses to FBS/ranked FCS teams by a total of 15 pts) might have done them in. I’m glad we don’t take cupcakes but a playoff bid to prove we are every bit as talented as NDSU and company would be nice. It will take 2 games. Win 2 and they’re in. Lose 1 and it’s False Hope City all over again.


Left Out

#22 South Dakota State (5-4, 3-3)
Remaining Games: WIU (4-6, 2-4), South Dakota (2-8, 0-6)

The win against Indiana State may have cost the conference a bid, but maybe, just maybe it will give the Jacks enough life to crawl back into 2nd place in the conference. It’s highly doubtful but worth noting.

#24 Southern Illinois (5-4, 3-3)
Remaining Games: UNI (6-4, 4-2), Illinois St (8-1, 5-1)

See ‘SDSU’ and everyone else. A brutal 3-game-losing-streak has all but ended the Salukis season. But wins against UNI and ISU could certainly put them in the conversation. Very unlikely they get both but hey, crazy **** happens.

Conference Prediction
NDSU (AQ)
Illinois St
Youngstown St
UNI



Northeast Conference

Sacred Heart and Wagner both sit with 1 loss in conference play (SH won the h2h) and #21 Bryant at 4-0 still faces both of them. The conference winner will be the only bid. No point in even speculating.


Ohio Valley Conference

Locks

#4 Jacksonville St (7-1, 6-0)
Remaining Games: Eastern Illinois (5-5, 5-1), SEMO (3-6, 2-4)
The OVC won a playoff game last year for the first time in about 15-20 years. Sure 1 was against Samford, the other was against Butler, both teams coming from “lower” conferences, and a 3rd was in an OVC matchup, but heck, they got a FOURTH as Jacksonville St convincingly beat McNeese St in the 2nd round. *Should* the OVC get 3 teams again this year? Absolutely not. *Could* they? Absolutely. Will JSU be one of them? Absolutely. A win this week would guarantee an auto-bid and would knock Eastern Illinois out of the picture.

#15 Eastern Kentucky (8-2, 5-2)
Remaining Games: Murray State (2-7, 1-5), Florida (5-3)
Unless the Colonels lose to Murray St this week they are going to earn an at-large bid for the OVC. I know I tried to keep the cart behind the horse in some other pick, but I just don’t feel like changing this.


On the Bubble

Eastern Illinois (5-5, 5-1)
Remaining Games: Jacksonville St (7-1, 6-0), UT-Martin (4-6, 4-3)

By “on the bubble” I mean, win out and take the auto-bid or stay home. They’ve played a tough schedule but another loss knocks them out of the conference title race and put them at 6-6 on the season. There will be plenty of 7-5 teams out there that are more deserving.

Conference Prediction
Jacksonville St (AQ)
Eastern Kentucky


Patriot League

#9 Fordham (9-1, 5-0) already has the conference title since they only have 1 remaining conference game (2-7 Georgetown), before a matchup with Army. They are 1 game ahead of 2nd place Bucknell (3-1) and just won the h2h. This conference only gets one folks. Last year was an aberration (and embarrassment) due to Fordham being ineligible for the conference title.


Pioneer League
Jacksonville (7-2, 6-1) and San Diego (7-1, 6-1) are the only ones in contention for the auto-bid and the lone Pioneer playoff spot. San Diego has the h2h so a win this week, against 10th place Valpo, punches their ticket.


Southern Conference

#11 Chattanooga (7-3, 6-0) has secured the auto-bid for the Southern Conference. Samford only has 4 D-I wins and still has to face Auburn. Same with Western Carolina except they still have ‘Bama. End of convo, folks.


Southland Conference


On the Bubble

#14 Southeast Louisiana (7-3, 5-1)
Remaining Games: McNeese St (5-3, 4-2), Nicholls St (0-9, 0-6)

Win 1 more and I think they’re a lock. Especially if they win this week over McNeese. Assuming the committee takes it easy on them. I wouldn’t be feeling confident right now Lion fans.

Sam Houston St (6-3, 5-1)
Remaining Games: Houston Baptist (1-7, 1-6), Central Arkansas (6-5, 5-2)

Can’t believe I’m being merciful to a team that lost to a DII team but whatever. It’s very possible they take the auto-bid, but even winning the last two games they should feel a little nervous if SELA also wins out. I just have no idea how the committee views those kind of losses but with the lack of love in the polls it’s a big uphill climb for SHS.

#6 McNeese St (5-3, 4-2)
Remaining Games: Southeast Louisiana (7-3, 5-1), Lamar (4-4, 3-3)

Losses to Sam Houston and Stephen F Austin suddenly have them out of the Top 10 (I assume) and “lock” category, but a win against SELA would do a lot of good for the Cowboys. Technically they only have 5 D-I wins right now but finish 7-3, take 2nd in the conference and get some mercy from the committee for that “almost-win” against Nebraska, and MSU will be in. Lose and I think they’re out, even if they’re still in the Top 15-20.

Stephen F Austin (6-3, 4-2)
Remaining Games: Abilene Christian (4-6, 3-4), NW St (5-5, 3-3)

The Lumberjacks have a great opportunity to close out the season strong and finish 8-3. I imagine that would get them into the playoff picture, even if they won’t have climbed far into the rankings. Not sure, this conference is pretty crazy.

Conference Prediction
SELA (AQ)
Stephen F. Austin
Sam Houston St


And that’s 24. I went into this expecting to leave us 2-3 spots to debate but I guess I second guessed some original feelings. There’s a lot that could still change in there and in the FCS you can guarantee things won’t go as predicted. Let’s strap in and enjoy folks, it’s going to be one hell of a November!

Also, please excuse any ignorance on my part of your team/conference. I really don’t follow or get exposed to many teams outside of the MVFC. You’ll have to understand and excuse that bias as well.

[vbfan19]

Re: Talking about Playoffs? What are the odds.

#24 Southern Illinois (6-4, 3-3)

SIU should be 5-4 overall if you're going on Div. I record, as one of their wins was over Taylor, an NAIA team.

[panther-state]

Re: Talking about Playoffs? What are the odds.

SIU should be 5-4 overall if you're going on Div. I record, as one of their wins was over Taylor, an NAIA team.

Good catch.

[TravelingPanther]

Re: Talking about Playoffs? What are the odds.

Idaho State had played two Non-DI schools.

For up to date playoff information I suggest anygivensaturday.com. The biggest fans from all the.conferences are continually evaluating every situation and coming up with new and correct info.

[panther-state]

Re: Talking about Playoffs? What are the odds.

Idaho State had played two Non-DI schools.

For up to date playoff information I suggest anygivensaturday.com. The biggest fans from all the.conferences are continually evaluating every situation and coming up with new and correct info.

Yeah just about every team in the Big Sky and Southland plays at least 1 non-D-I game. I really hope that is taken into consideration by the committee.

Actually the CAA and MVFC were the only ones where I didn't see any outside of one or two exceptions. Those two leagues really deserve at least 8 playoff spots between the two of them.

[Purrrrrfect]

Re: Talking about Playoffs? What are the odds.

THe socon was a joke this year. They all played 1 if not 2 non d1s. They have really fallen off since app state and George southern left for good

[achrist70]

Re: Talking about Playoffs? What are the odds.

Honest question here if we go 8-4 with a win over 2 teams that are going to get seeded 1 of which probably the 1 seed are we at least in the discussion for a 7 or 8 seed. Are 4 losses are by a total of 15 points and 2 of them are to FBS teams.

I don't think that the committee will even consider it, but should we not be in the conversation.

Of course this is dependent on us finishing 8-4

[panther-state]

Re: Talking about Playoffs? What are the odds.

Honest question here if we go 8-4 with a win over 2 teams that are going to get seeded 1 of which probably the 1 seed are we at least in the discussion for a 7 or 8 seed. Are 4 losses are by a total of 15 points and 2 of them are to FBS teams.

I don't think that the committee will even consider it, but should we not be in the conversation.

Of course this is dependent on us finishing 8-4

Doubtful. They never consider how close you were to winning a game, just if you got completely smoked by someone. Doesn't matter who it was against, a loss is a loss in their mind. It seems evident each year that the committee thinks "strength of schedule" only refers to how easily your team poster rips.