Talking about Playoffs? What are the odds.

[Purple For Life]

Re: Talking about Playoffs? What are the odds.

I think the Delaware game was the last one I went to the whole game...I went to part of one in '08 but that's the last time. Stupid life getting in the way...

[northwest iowa panther]

Re: Talking about Playoffs? What are the odds.

These are the people that will have the final say:

FCS PLAYOFF SELECTION COMMITTEE
The 11-member NCAA Division I Football Championship selection committee will face some tough decisions before the 24-team playoff field is announced Nov. 23:
Big Sky - Jeff Tingey, Idaho State athletic director
Big South - Chuck Burch, Gardner-Webb athletic director
CAA Football - Marty Scarano, New Hampshire athletic director
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference - Earl Hilton, North Carolina A&T athletic director
Missouri Valley Football Conference - TROY DANNEN, Northern Iowa athletic director
Northeast Conference - Paul Schlickmann, Central Connecticut State athletic director
Ohio Valley Conference - Mark Wilson, Tennessee Tech athletic director
Patriot League - Frank McLaughlin, Fordham University associate vice president
Pioneer Football League - Brian Hutchinson, Morehead State athletic director
Southern Conference - Richard Johnson, Wofford College athletic director
Southland Conference - Robert Hill (chair), Stephen F. Austin athletic director

[Purrrrrfect]

Re: Talking about Playoffs? What are the odds.

Any discussion between a team you rep, you can't be in the room and troy can't vote for UNI...that could hurt us if it comes down to it.

[panther-state]

Re: Talking about Playoffs? What are the odds.

Any discussion between a team you rep, you can't be in the room and troy can't vote for UNI...that could hurt us if it comes down to it.

Although I do see some teams on there that we have past relationships with. Plus I would have to think that people are having discussions before the selection committee even meets. You have to, right? Plus there are plenty of other bubble teams that can hurt as well.

[Purrrrrfect]

Re: Talking about Playoffs? What are the odds.

I agree P-S. You would have to believe Troy is at least putting his 2 cents in as much as possible. Just saying though if it came down to it (obviously not winning the auto) that's one less vote for us as opposed to if another Valley school was reppin'.

[Purrrrrfect]

Re: Talking about Playoffs? What are the odds.

saw this on AGS...still an honest..real possibility.

"Northern Iowa – Need to win their last two games and have Illinois State and NDSU lose one of their remaining games to be CO-MVC Champion. If NDSU loses one game, Illinois State loses two games, and Youngstown State loses one game then UNI would be outright MVC Champion."

Also not that it would matter unfortunately, but UNI would have the tiebreak against NDSU and ISUr if those two both loss 1. Or would they get the auto in that case even though they are multiple co-champs?

http://beyondsportsnetwork.com/blog/fcs-conference-championship-and-playoff-picture-119/

[TravelingPanther]

Re: Talking about Playoffs? What are the odds.

If NDSU loses one we would still be co-champs.

If UNI ties with NDSU, Illinois State and YSU, it goes to head to head which UNI wins.

[Purrrrrfect]

Re: Talking about Playoffs? What are the odds.

If NDSU loses one we would still be co-champs.

If UNI ties with NDSU, Illinois State and YSU, it goes to head to head which UNI wins.

Right..I knew about the co-champs for all cases. I wasn't positive on the auto bid for 3+ co-champs. Thought maybe GPI which I thought NDSU may still be ahead of us. Thanks!

In any case tho...just win out and we don't have to worry about sweating it out. But to answer your question. Our best chance to get in at 7-5...win this weekend. Would it be enough, or better than ISUb..own personal opinion. I could see both missing out. I have a hard time seeing ISUb make it in but anything is possible.

[vbfan19]

Re: Talking about Playoffs? What are the odds.

If NDSU loses one we would still be co-champs.

If UNI ties with NDSU, Illinois State and YSU, it goes to head to head which UNI wins.

not sure if they would use head-to-head since no team played all of the other tied teams (no UNI v. YSU or NDSU v. ILS). It might come down to record vs. opponents common to all tied teams.
Which in this case would be how the teams fared against [INS, MSU, USD, SDSU, SIU, WIU]. Unless I'm interpretting that wrong.

I think the only scenario where UNI would get the auto would be if NDSU, ILS, and YSU all lost 1 or more (and UNI won both). That would knock YSU out and leave UNI, ILS, and NDSU. And in that instance, even though ILS and NDSU didn't play, UNI beat both, which would give UNI the AQ.

[panther-state]

Re: Talking about Playoffs? What are the odds.

I agree P-S. You would have to believe Troy is at least putting his 2 cents in as much as possible. Just saying though if it came down to it (obviously not winning the auto) that's one less vote for us as opposed to if another Valley school was reppin'.

Actually my interpretation was that Troy can not be involved in the discussion of any Valley teams, much less UNI. As a conference delegate for the MVFC he is a representative for all Valley teams. So in the end it's a pretty fair system.

[UNIdad]

Re: Talking about Playoffs? What are the odds.

I will attempt to list the teams that are "Locks" (definitely or extremely likely to make the field, barring catastrophe), "On the Bubble" (teams that probably control their own destiny and are on the edge of getting; might need a bit of help outside of winning their last 2 games) and "Left Out" (teams that close but are on the wrong side of the bubble unless they get a lot of help from others over the next two weeks).

I will also note that records are based solely on Division I games. It has been understood that the NCAA committee pretty much only recognizes those games, so I will do the same. All rankings are also according to the November 3rd FCS Coaches Poll

Playoff Breakdown
Automatic Qualifiers (AQ): 11
At-Large Bids:13

Big Sky Conference

Locks

#5 Eastern Washington (8-2, 5-1)
Remaining Games: Portland State (2-7, 2-4)

I'm unaware of the Big Sky's tie-breaking scenario but with Northern Arizona also poised to finish 7-1 in conference play and having won the head-to-head match up, I predict that they finish with the Auto-bid. Eastern Washington won't have any trouble securing an at-large, however, *and* almost certainly being a seeded team.

. . .

I cheer for UNI, but don't follow all of FCS very closely, so this is great to help me put UNI in context. Thanks much, Panther-State.

[panther-state]

Re: Talking about Playoffs? What are the odds.

This is an interesting watch. I don't think you could say it speaks for the entire committee but I have a hard time believing that some of this sentiment isn't shared.

Football Selection Process--Troy Dannen

[Purrrrrfect]

Re: Talking about Playoffs? What are the odds.

Playoff interest games: UNI @ SIU, WIU @ SDSU, Ind. St @ YSU

A game to keep a watch out on this weekend. OVC - JSU vs. EIU (5-5 overall) for 1st in the OVC. A win by EIU would give them a potential autobid with one game remaining (UT-M) It would take an at large spot away as well as I suspect JSU and EKU are in.

Another game to watch is in the Southland conf. McNeese plays against league leader SELA. A win would be huge for the cowboys who need to win out to get to 7 D1 wins.

[Purrrrrfect]

Re: Talking about Playoffs? What are the odds.

So I was bored today, and excited for this weekends game, AND just thought about 2005's great run (15 games) . So I'd thought I'd compare (2014 - 10 games).

We were 4-3 after a huge loss to ISUr 38-3. We then went on a tear that included having 3 of our last 4 at home to clinch. This year we started out 3-4 and again have 3 of our last 4 at home to clinch a playoff spot.

After the 3rd loss in '05 we went on the next 3 weeks to beat #11 (and undefeated), #6 on the road, and #4. We were ranked #21, #17 and then #14 in that stretch. After the 3rd game it propelled us to #10. This year after our 4th loss we went on to beat @NR, #6 and #1. We were ranked #23, #22, #19. After the 3rd game it has put us at #10/11.

In '05 we started preseason #12, this year, preseason #9. '05 we finished #2...this year...!?????!??!

Our overall home attendance has been 3,000 higher this season than in '05 (avg. 13,000+ this year)

'05 had a great Oline and squad..yet they gave up 38 sacks. This years Oline which is avg at best in most of our eyes...has only given up 19. We avg. 2 yards more per game rushing than in '05 and our passing defense has been SPECIAL! In '05, we gave up 28 passing TDs...so far this season - NINE.

Despite our atrocious offense, (Thanks special teams and DEFENSE!), we actually avg. 1 point per game more this year so far than in '05 (30.9 - 29.9)

Our rushing defense is 30 yards better per game as well though we have given up 13 TDs on the ground as opposed to 15 total in '05. We give up almost 100 yards less per game this year than in '05 (375 yards) and we were only +5 in turnover margin in '05, and are already +7 this year.

Better kicker this year, worse at penalties and for as much as our defense is on the field..our avg. T.O.P is actually only 4 seconds less than in '05. (skewed, yes I know from UNC and TTU).

Here is a telling stat..This year we haven't been very good in the 1st quarter..we've given up 91 points already..We gave up only 51 in all of '05...but the big difference..we are outscoring opponents 128-27 in the 2nd quarter this year which has kept us in games.

It's just fun to think about. Who knows if the magic will return..it's started off right though. Let the fun continue!

JUST WIN BABY!

[GonzoCat]

Re: Talking about Playoffs? What are the odds.

Interesting stuff, thanks for that.