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Playoff Thread

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  • #16
    No way UNI isn't in.

    UNI, with a win, will finish second in the MVFC. The tie break for the "official" 2nd place finish is UNI's.

    There is zero chance a 7 win team in the MVFC that finishes 2nd at 6-2 in the MVFC is getting left out. Especially when that team has the hardest SOS no matter which computer metric is measuring it.
    "People will talk about getting into the playoffs - don't give a ****. This isn't about just getting to the playoffs. Bull**** programs care about just getting to the playoffs."
    -A twist on Matt Campbell getting Iowa State bowl eligible.

    Comment


    • #17
      I completely agree, but it is a little concerning that we are #24 in the stats poll and #26 in the coaches poll.

      Now granted these are usually the worst polls possible as the people who vote don't seem to do any research other than looking at records, but it kind of makes you wonder what the selection committee is looking at.

      Comment


      • #18
        There is no conspiracy for the years we didn't get in. We didn't deseve it.

        We're in. There's no way we're not. Lets just move on.
        #MACtion

        Comment


        • #19
          I have a sneaky suspicion that we're going to be the unpopular guy that can't get a date to prom.

          Comment


          • #20
            What are the odds that we get a home game in the playoffs? I really hope so. I would love to spend a Saturday in Cedar Falls for football!

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by UNIdad View Post
              What are the odds that we get a home game in the playoffs? I really hope so. I would love to spend a Saturday in Cedar Falls for football!
              99.9999999996%

              We're playing Saturday evening in Cedar Falls.
              #MACtion

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by BCPanther View Post

                99.9999999996%

                We're playing Saturday evening in Cedar Falls.
                The more I look at it the most I think we host the third team out of the SLC (McNeese or Nicholls...the other one of those gets left home) and get sent to Jacksonville State or one of the seeded Southland teams (Central Arkansas or Sam Houston)
                "People will talk about getting into the playoffs - don't give a ****. This isn't about just getting to the playoffs. Bull**** programs care about just getting to the playoffs."
                -A twist on Matt Campbell getting Iowa State bowl eligible.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by BCPanther View Post

                  99.9999999996%

                  We're playing Saturday evening in Cedar Falls.
                  I wonder what kind of hosting bid UNI put in, given the new AD and lower attendance this season.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by vbfan19 View Post

                    I wonder what kind of hosting bid UNI put in, given the new AD and lower attendance this season.
                    Farley has long maintained UNI will play a home game no matter what unless we are the lower seeded team forced on the road. It's one of the things he and Dannen got right come playoff bid time
                    "People will talk about getting into the playoffs - don't give a ****. This isn't about just getting to the playoffs. Bull**** programs care about just getting to the playoffs."
                    -A twist on Matt Campbell getting Iowa State bowl eligible.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Win Saturday, we play at home the following Saturday. I've already told my in-laws I can't make Thanksgiving plans for that weekend until the selection day is over.
                      "...the Northern Iowa men's basketball team reached the ultimate highs before hitting a devastating low. Unexpected success, followed by unimaginable failure. And they owned it -- all of it -- for the world to see. Like men. Like leaders. Like champions -- in a way no tournament bracket could ever define."

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Born-a-Panther View Post
                        Win Saturday, we play at home the following Saturday. I've already told my in-laws I can't make Thanksgiving plans for that weekend until the selection day is over.
                        It'll either be 4:00 or 7:00. Thanksgiving brunch?
                        #MACtion

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by BCPanther View Post

                          It'll either be 4:00 or 7:00. Thanksgiving brunch?
                          There's gonna be a bunch of western based games - 3 involving Big Sky teams, potentially South Dakota and South Dakota State, Nicholls, McNeese, maybe Illinois State and Western Illinois.

                          I'd guess 3 or 4
                          "People will talk about getting into the playoffs - don't give a ****. This isn't about just getting to the playoffs. Bull**** programs care about just getting to the playoffs."
                          -A twist on Matt Campbell getting Iowa State bowl eligible.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by clenz View Post
                            NDSU will get the 2 seed
                            A SDSU win gives them the 7 or 8 seed
                            A SDSU loss and a WIU win gives them the 7 or 8 seed

                            There are still too many scenarios to really start to waste real effort guessing. If ISUr beats NDSU then UNI/ISUr will be the first round game with the winner of that being sent to the WIU/SDSU seed.

                            NDSU, SDSU and WIU are locks.
                            UNI, ISUr, and USD are locks with a win
                            USD is a bubble with a loss
                            UNI and ISUr are out with a loss.

                            It depends on how the committee weighs SOS. The Southland will have 4 9+ win teams, but they all have just garbage SOS. It's like they played MSU, SIU and Indian State every single week and those would be the tough games.

                            Montana and EWU are win and in.

                            There's enough SLC and Big Sky teams that UNI could end up getting sent east/south to the OVC (who will only get JSU) and Southland early on.

                            The PFL champ is San Diego so they'll get a Big Sky team so that takes a western feed of NDSU down a bit.

                            UNI's best odds to avoid SUU, SDSU or NDSU is for USD to get in. USD becomes that bus trip for SDSU or NDSU.

                            I think the way it plays out is

                            2 seed NDSU vs San Diego/Big Sky at-large (probably Montana)
                            7 seed SDSU vs USD/SLC or Big Sky at-large
                            UNI/SLC at large getting fed into Jacksonville State or Sam Houston State


                            MVFC could have 6 playoff teams but I doubt that happens. I think we end up with 4. 5 if USD can manage to play SDSU close.
                            Any chance WIU gets a seed even if SDSU gets a win on Saturday giving the Valley 3 seeded teams. Would love to get routed through WIU and ultimately through the East. WIU has an impressive resume. Shame UNI didn't find a way to get the SUU or WIU game, for surely would be talking about a seed, which is so important to get a week off. Didn't even consider ISUr as a 1st round potential opponent, man would that be wrong! But not at all surprising. Would guarantee only 5 Valley teams making it to the 2nd round. Kind of like 2 years ago when they put in 5 Valley teams but put them all on the same side of the bracket.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              I can't see a situation where the Valley gets 3 seeds. The best WIU can finish in conference play is 4th. They'll have lost to SDSU, NDSU and USD with just escaping UNI through some extreme good fortune.

                              Outside of that UNI win their other 4 MVFC wins are against teams with a combined record of 13-31 overal. Their OOC has a potential decent win in NAU - assuming they win this week. If they don't they are squarely on the bubble and possibly outside as they'd be 7-4 but have just 2 wins over .500 or better teams (6-5 Illinois State and 6-5 Sac State) - and then 1-9 Coastal Carolina and 1-7 Tennessee Tech.

                              Sub .500 against playoff teams 1-3 (potentially 2-3 if NAU gets in. Could get super crazy if Illinois State beats NDSU then they'd move to 3-3 but that's getting into the way too crazy situation place.

                              I just don't see it happening.

                              If we want to play out the scenario that gets WIU an 8 seed it needs, at a minimum 80% of this to happen
                              Elon losing to James Madison - this is the CAA title game. Elon is 8-2 (6-1). They beat JMU they are the CAA champs and both get seeded. Elon losing is a 100% must
                              Stony Brook losing to Maine - SBU is tied with Elon at 8-2 (6-1) but can't win the auto even with a W because of how the tiebreaker would work with JMU and Elon. 9-2 (7-1) in the CAA would be a seed
                              Illinois State beating NDSU - this gives WIU another win over a likely playoff team in Illinois State
                              SDSU beating USD - To keep the idea of 3 seeds open this has to happen. SDSU isn't seeded with a loss
                              NAU beating Southern Utah - knocks SUU out of the 7 or 8 seed. NAU likely is going to need more help than I'm laying out for WIU for seed talk. With WIU having a head-to-head W
                              Wofford to get annihilated by South Carolina - Wofford is in the 6-8 seed range. A bad loss to South Carolina could do damage to their name even though an L is expected
                              SHSU loses - SHSU has a gaudy record but have played JH teams all year. The gaudy record with a W gets them a seed. A loss and they won't


                              Sure, it's possible but it's going to take one of the nuttiest days the FCS has seen in years
                              "People will talk about getting into the playoffs - don't give a ****. This isn't about just getting to the playoffs. Bull**** programs care about just getting to the playoffs."
                              -A twist on Matt Campbell getting Iowa State bowl eligible.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Thanks for the awesome breakdown clenz, I am actually rooting against SDSU this week, figuring the Valley is getting 2 seeds no matter what happens this weekend, if SDSU loses that eliminates the opportunity for them to be seeded. Gives a chance for WIU to be seeded. Good chance SDSU would be routed through Fargo and we would be routed through WIU although for SDSU to lose USD gets another quality win and has the head to head over WIU which I then say just seed UNI!!!! Is there any chance that all hell breaks lose this week and UNI sneaks in as the 8 seed? Man to have one more W right now!!!!

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