Western Illinois 1 pm

[BrockLesnar]

I'm hopeful everyone gets to play Saturday with no injuries in a 42-3 game.

[ronfitch]

We're a mortal lock at 7-4 and a real shot at a seed and bye at 8-3.

FWIW ... Massey has UNI's SoS as the toughest in the FCS:

https://masseyratings.com/cf/fcs/ratings

A loss to an FBS team, the 10 that week and number 1 all season. 8-3 and second in the MVFC could definitely be a bye (and hosting Thanksgiving weekend is always a small crowd).

[clenz]

There is as close to zero-shot as possible as UNI getting a seed.

Look at where UNI is in every poll - the coaches poll, which the committee uses, has UNI at 23. We are still behind YSU and UND. There is no shot we move to a top 8 rank no matter how we finish the season.I could make a long post going into all the details and scenarios and "reasons" to go with them, just know it's not going to happen. Prepare yourself for a Thanksgiving weekend game and probably on the road because David won't have submitted a bid (which was due last week IIRC).

I'll just point to 2019 where UNI finished alone in second place in the Valley and didn't get a seed. The seed went to SDSU who finished 2 games behind us and in 5th place in the Valley. We also finished that season with 8 regular season wins and the #1 SOS in the country.

[BCPanther]

There is as close to zero-shot as possible as UNI getting a seed.

Look at where UNI is in every poll - the coaches poll, which the committee uses, has UNI at 23. We are still behind YSU and UND. There is no shot we move to a top 8 rank no matter how we finish the season.I could make a long post going into all the details and scenarios and "reasons" to go with them, just know it's not going to happen. Prepare yourself for a Thanksgiving weekend game and probably on the road because David won't have submitted a bid (which was due last week IIRC).

I'll just point to 2019 where UNI finished alone in second place in the Valley and didn't get a seed. The seed went to SDSU who finished 2 games behind us and in 5th place in the Valley. We also finished that season with 8 regular season wins and the #1 SOS in the country.

Yeah. This is probably correct, unfortunately.

Also, that committee is going to be all over putting us, USD and SDSU in the same pod.

[clenz]

Yeah. This is probably correct, unfortunately.

Also, that committee is going to be all over putting us, USD and SDSU in the same pod.

and since we don't play USD in the regular season we will be playing Thanksgiving weekend in Vermillion for a trip to Brookings.

[PantherFan]

and since we don't play USD in the regular season we will be playing Thanksgiving weekend in Vermillion for a trip to Brookings.

If Drake wins the Pioneer League, couldn't they put Drake in the UNI Dome on Thanksgiving weekend? Assuming Harris puts in a bid.

[clenz]

If Drake wins the Pioneer League, couldn't they put Drake in the UNI Dome on Thanksgiving weekend? Assuming Harris puts in a bid.

Drake can go 8-0 on the PFL and miss the playoffs in tie breakers because it may come down to an actual coin flip. Given how easy heavy the FCS is I’d also bet they send Drake to Vermillion and we get an SLC or Big Ohio South Valley team. Potentially EIUif they get to 8-3. I say that because Drake/USD means an automatic bus trip for the team going to Brookings the week after. If you do UNI/Drake USD has to have a flight that first round. EIU at 8-3 is a bus to Cedar Falls at 380 miles (or the other way if David doesn't bid) and then a flight second round with the winner to SDSU you would have a potential flight to SDSU and USD flying in the first round and second round.

Yes, Drake UNI is a bus and would be a bus to Brookings, but then you're just giving up on the idea of a bus with USD and giving an automatic 2 extra flights to their travel budget, which wouldn't go well with their regionalization.

That all gets shifted if USD and SDSU end up seeded then it's 1000% UNI/Drake with the winner to likely USD. I'd say SDSU, but UNI and Drake both played SDSU during the regular season, and while the no rematch rule is only for first round games, it would make sense that when both potential match ups are essentially the exact same distance from both seeds you'd do what you could to avoid an automatic rematch when one of the two seeds is getting a flight in either way

[vbfan19]

Drake can go 8-0 on the PFL and miss the playoffs in tie breakers because it may come down to an actual coin flip.

Currently, both Drake and Davidson are 5-0 in the PFL and they don't play each other this year.
If both win out, then according to https://www.pioneer-football.org/pfl/tiebreaker/ it would come down to "PFL 'Strength of Victory' (combined record of PFL teams defeated)"
7 of the 8 PFL opponents are the same for Drake and Davidson, thus the determining factor would be the 8th opponent for each team:
Drake played and beat St. Thomas (who is currently 5-1 in the PFL) while Davidson will end the season playing Dayton (who is currently 0-5 in the PFL).
So as far as I can figure, Drake would win that tiebreak (even if St Thomas lost their remaining 2 conference games to finish 5-3 while Dayton won their remaining 2 games other than Davidson, to finish at 2-6).

Though Drake's remaining 3 games do appear to be tougher than Davidson's remaining 3 games, so it's possible Drake could drop one of those and Davidson could get the AQ.

[ronfitch]

There is as close to zero-shot as possible as UNI getting a seed.

Look at where UNI is in every poll - the coaches poll, which the committee uses, has UNI at 23. We are still behind YSU and UND. There is no shot we move to a top 8 rank no matter how we finish the season.I could make a long post going into all the details and scenarios and "reasons" to go with them, just know it's not going to happen. Prepare yourself for a Thanksgiving weekend game and probably on the road because David won't have submitted a bid (which was due last week IIRC).

I'll just point to 2019 where UNI finished alone in second place in the Valley and didn't get a seed. The seed went to SDSU who finished 2 games behind us and in 5th place in the Valley. We also finished that season with 8 regular season wins and the #1 SOS in the country.

Yeah, sorry ... forgot about the committee. Sometimes, Clenz, I hate how you bring reality back into this. I need it, but I hate it.

When UNI finished alone in second place in 2019 and the committee put SDSU above UNI that year, UNI won the first playoff game and then went out to Brookings to beat SDSU on their turf. In the week leading up to it, on Any Given Saturday as I recall, Clenz, you are the one who pointed out that if it comes down to a FG that SDSU is screwed. Sure enough, UNI blocked an SDSU FG in the fourth and Cook hit on two to win 13-10 and advance to JMU in the semis.

Upside is that it is November and UNI under Farley is good in November.

Still hoping UNI does not host the first round. UNI draws poorly on Thanksgiving more often than not going back to the Mud Bowl at Latham in '75.

[CincyPanther88]

I'm hopeful everyone gets to play Saturday with no injuries in a 42-3 game.

If WIU is as bad as BC says they are it should be more like 63-0.If we run up the score, who cares? WIU is out of the conference anyway so we don't have to worry about revenge. 63-0 or thereabouts is going to look real good to the voters.

[achrist70]

But they would be an ideal non conference opponent

[clenz]

If WIU is as bad as BC says they are it should be more like 63-0.If we run up the score, who cares? WIU is out of the conference anyway so we don't have to worry about revenge. 63-0 or thereabouts is going to look real good to the voters.

63-0 would be the 5th worst defeat WIU has ever had. Let's not get too crazy no matter how bad they are.

SIU scored 64-yard pass on their first offensive play of the game, a fumble return for a TD, and 3 more TDs of 25+ yards. On top of that, they were given a number of shorter fields as WIU had 4 failed 4th down conversion attempts. They "only" had 474 yards of offense and had the ball for 28 minutes. For a team that scored 63, you'd think both of those would be higher than that, but that's just how that game played out.

WIU is really bad, but Farley isn't a run-the-score kind of coach. He used to be, but he/the program got hammered pretty damn hard after the USD game in 09 and those kinds of drubbings seemed to stop. Remember SFA or Monmouth in the playoffs? The one Drake game? The McNeese game? Utah Tech and St Thomas last year? Idaho State this year? All were games where there would be a legitimate reason to believe they could/should have finished 60+ to less than 13. USD to end the year last year was the one "out of hand" game we truly saw, but even then the second half was all 2s and 3s and ran the ball to kill the clock.

He may want some extra style points to prove a point for playoff selections this year, but I'd be shocked if he allowed to to get much worse than a 45-7 type game if it started getting sideway. That would be directly in line with what WIU has seen every game this year. This late in the year you always want to protect players' health so a guy like Day, Schnee, Penning, etc. likely won't stick around for long once it's out of reach. I think last year's USD game I mentioned is pretty close to what we could see.

[BrockLesnar]

We could be playing Wartburg on Saturday and Farley would still shorten the game.

[vbfan19]

We could be playing Wartburg on Saturday and Farley would still shorten the game.

might be a tougher opponent than WIU this year.
(at least at this point in the season. the beatings that the Leathernecks have taken have got to take a toll mentally, while the Warts might feel upbeat and confident enough even going against a scholarship team)

[BrockLesnar]

might be a tougher opponent than WIU this year.
(at least at this point in the season. the beatings that the Leathernecks have taken have got to take a toll mentally, while the Warts might feel upbeat and confident enough even going against a scholarship team)

Wartburg is legit and will run their table. I was making a point about how Mark coaches. I don't expect much passing on Saturday and a get out quick 42-3, type score.