Keeping an eye on the national rankings

[NI hawk]

Just saw ESPN's new bracketology and Lunardi still has us as an 11 seed. He did move us to playing in St. Louis against Iowa. There is a lot that can happen between now and then but I think that would be a fun match-up!

Would be fun. Couldn't find a restaurant in Hannibal when I drove to 2010 regional to watch UNI. Lots of cars on Avenue of Saints.

[sevelev711]

All on the back of that world famous, UNI trademark high flying, 5th rated offense lol. What a season.

[Username]

If we continue to win the computers are going to like us a lot more than the polls due to a portfolio of a lot of decent wins. We are blessed to have name recognition, though, and I think if we continue to take care of business we should be in. TR brackets has 27 wins as the magic number to be a fairly good shot at the tournament. This isn't the 2014-15 team but I think their closer to them than the 15-16 team.

[kochrab]

All on the back of that world famous, UNI trademark high flying, 5th rated offense lol. What a season.

Lol. What a weird world we're living in. Every year we've tried to score lots of points it has bit us in the rear. However, this year we seem to be efficient enough, on both side of the ball, to make that happen. Weird world man, weird world.

[sevelev711]

If we continue to win the computers are going to like us a lot more than the polls due to a portfolio of a lot of decent wins. We are blessed to have name recognition, though, and I think if we continue to take care of business we should be in. TR brackets has 27 wins as the magic number to be a fairly good shot at the tournament. This isn't the 2014-15 team but I think their closer to them than the 15-16 team.

Hmm, I don't know about that. I mean it's certainly doable, there's 12 regular seasons game left and at least one more in the tourney, but likely more since we'll probably be playing a Thursday team. But let's ignore speculation on the tourney for now, that'd be winning 11 of the 12 to get 27 wins. Does anyone feel like being 27-3, 16-2 before Arch Madness gets us in? 29-4? 27-5? Remember, this isn't should we get in on that, but would we get in? I'm gonna say no to 27 wins. I think it has to be minimum 28, and with no stinkers. At Loyola and At Indiana State are the only acceptable places to lose. And only one of those, not both. If we go 17-1 in conference, I think we're pretty safe. Borderline lock if we make it to Saturday, and actual lock if we lose on Sunday. 30-3 is a lock, 29-3 is close to it, 28-3 we're cutting it close. After that, I think it gets dicey.

27 wins might be "fairly good shot" from an analytics standpoint, but not a realistic standpoint.

[CyCarp]

Hmm, I don't know about that. I mean it's certainly doable, there's 12 regular seasons game left and at least one more in the tourney, but likely more since we'll probably be playing a Thursday team. But let's ignore speculation on the tourney for now, that'd be winning 11 of the 12 to get 27 wins. Does anyone feel like being 27-3, 16-2 before Arch Madness gets us in? 29-4? 27-5? Remember, this isn't should we get in on that, but would we get in? I'm gonna say no to 27 wins. I think it has to be minimum 28, and with no stinkers. At Loyola and At Indiana State are the only acceptable places to lose. And only one of those, not both. If we go 17-1 in conference, I think we're pretty safe. Borderline lock if we make it to Saturday, and actual lock if we lose on Sunday. 30-3 is a lock, 29-3 is close to it, 28-3 we're cutting it close. After that, I think it gets dicey.

27 wins might be "fairly good shot" from an analytics standpoint, but not a realistic standpoint.

Yes, I think 27-3 (16-2) gets us in, as long as we don't lay a complete egg in the first game in STL. Maybe it's wishful thinking and while it is tough for us to get an at large, but I do think we have some things going for us. 1) A superstar. Remember Oklahoma and Trae Young getting into the tourney? A lot of people said it's because the NCAA wants it's best players in. Sure, AJ doesn't have the name recognition Young had, but he has been playing like on of the best. If the committee looks at that, it's a good thing. 2) If the committee dives deep into our games, both losses so far are games we were up big, and tied or winning with under a minute left. Legit could easily be undefeated. Sure at Illinois St was a bad loss, but the vast majority of trans have at least 1 bad loss. 3) We still have name recognition. We still have Coach Jake.

[sevelev711]

Yes, I think 27-3 (16-2) gets us in, as long as we don't lay a complete egg in the first game in STL. Maybe it's wishful thinking and while it is tough for us to get an at large, but I do think we have some things going for us. 1) A superstar. Remember Oklahoma and Trae Young getting into the tourney? A lot of people said it's because the NCAA wants it's best players in. Sure, AJ doesn't have the name recognition Young had, but he has been playing like on of the best. If the committee looks at that, it's a good thing. 2) If the committee dives deep into our games, both losses so far are games we were up big, and tied or winning with under a minute left. Legit could easily be undefeated. Sure at Illinois St was a bad loss, but the vast majority of trans have at least 1 bad loss. 3) We still have name recognition. We still have Coach Jake.

I think you're vastly overestimating the amount of name recognition UNI has lol. Will it ring a bell for people? Probably. Does UNI have the type of name recognition to warrant putting them in on that basis? Probably not. The committee won't need to worry about the Iowa market (not that they ever would, tbf) because Iowa is going to get in. AJ doesn't have near the star power to get us in, and probably won't have enough national TV appearances/he's not going to the NBA to build that up. Also not a big fan of "we could be unbeaten" because we could also have 6 losses by this point. The results are what the results are.

I'm not saying the At Large is dead, but it is on life support. 27 wins ain't going to bring it back. It might be possible if a lot of chips fall where they need to, but there's no way they won't take an 11th B1G team over a 2nd MVC. If we do find ourselves with 27 wins, better start hoping for some massive separation in the bigger conferences.

[Blue42]

I think you're vastly overestimating the amount of name recognition UNI has lol. Will it ring a bell for people? Probably. Does UNI have the type of name recognition to warrant putting them in on that basis? Probably not. The committee won't need to worry about the Iowa market (not that they ever would, tbf) because Iowa is going to get in. AJ doesn't have near the star power to get us in, and probably won't have enough national TV appearances/he's not going to the NBA to build that up. Also not a big fan of "we could be unbeaten" because we could also have 6 losses by this point. The results are what the results are.

I'm not saying the At Large is dead, but it is on life support. 27 wins ain't going to bring it back. It might be possible if a lot of chips fall where they need to, but there's no way they won't take an 11th B1G team over a 2nd MVC. If we do find ourselves with 27 wins, better start hoping for some massive separation in the bigger conferences.

Wow Sev...

There's wrong, there's really wrong...and then there's that post.

That's a train wreck.

My goodness.

[sevelev711]

Wow Sev...

There's wrong, there's really wrong...and then there's that post.

That's a train wreck.

My goodness.

What about that is incorrect? Do keep in mind I'm not talking about my opinion on those topics, but what I would guess the committee's opinion is on those topic.

[CyCarp]

Up to 15th in RPI, and we actually dropped a spot to 37 in NET after getting a Q2 win.

[MNpanthers]

Up to 15th in RPI, and we actually dropped a spot to 37 in NET after getting a Q2 win.

A Q2 double digit road win. That's pretty discouraging...

[achrist70]

Did we drop because of the egg that Colorado dropped in Tucson?

[CyCarp]

Did we drop because of the egg that Colorado dropped in Tucson?

A few of our prior opponents lost - Colorado, WV, and Northern Colorado for sure, plus Marshall played Old Dominion. I'm guessing all those losses added up to go against us.

[Gboom23]

It was a pretty terrible Saturday from our non-conference opponents, except South Carolina. The more it goes on, the more I think it’s going to be hard to climb higher than the mid-30’s in the NET. Any loss would seem to drop us 20+ spots and then it takes 3 weeks to get back where we were.

If the goal is to be in position for an at-large, then you are going to need some cushion to absorb a loss as the final result as well. I continue to believe a record of 28-5 (15-3, Sunday loss in STL) should get us in. And this team deserves to be in, without a doubt.

[CyCarp]

I just noticed that SC's win yesterday bumped them up to a Q2 win for us now also. It really is going to be tough to move up much. We were in the 22nd prior to the Illinois St loss, 5 straight wins later we're still 15 spots away from there.