Keeping an eye on the national rankings

[Gboom23]

On a positive note, I’ll add that the other metrics the selection committee apparently looks have been starting to trend upward. They had been lagging behind our NET ranking, but that is starting to change. That would include KPI, KenPom, Sagarin, BPI, and strength of record. Strength of Record is up to 17.

[NI hawk]

It was a pretty terrible Saturday from our non-conference opponents, except South Carolina. The more it goes on, the more I think it’s going to be hard to climb higher than the mid-30’s in the NET. Any loss would seem to drop us 20+ spots and then it takes 3 weeks to get back where we were.

If the goal is to be in position for an at-large, then you are going to need some cushion to absorb a loss as the final result as well. I continue to believe a record of 28-5 (15-3, Sunday loss in STL) should get us in. And this team deserves to be in, without a doubt.

No doubt Panthers should be in at 28-5 and 15-3.

[UNIGrainer]

Don't want to get too high in the NET or the committee will have to change the formula again.

[sevelev711]

Playing with that Team Ranking site, couple interesting things, firstly, the odds that we get into the tournament (according to this site) actually went down from yesterday. Now, aggregate, odds went up, but that's because they dropped the possibility of only winning 19 games, every winning total's chances went down. The 27 win mark has actually gone from 61% chance of making the tourney to 49.5% chance. Secondly, right now, we have an 8-ish percent chance of making the sweet sixteen. That's actually pretty decent, given the amount of factors. It's an interesting site, if you've got some time to kill, it's worth checking out.

[Username]

Hmm, I don't know about that. I mean it's certainly doable, there's 12 regular seasons game left and at least one more in the tourney, but likely more since we'll probably be playing a Thursday team. But let's ignore speculation on the tourney for now, that'd be winning 11 of the 12 to get 27 wins. Does anyone feel like being 27-3, 16-2 before Arch Madness gets us in? 29-4? 27-5? Remember, this isn't should we get in on that, but would we get in? I'm gonna say no to 27 wins. I think it has to be minimum 28, and with no stinkers. At Loyola and At Indiana State are the only acceptable places to lose. And only one of those, not both. If we go 17-1 in conference, I think we're pretty safe. Borderline lock if we make it to Saturday, and actual lock if we lose on Sunday. 30-3 is a lock, 29-3 is close to it, 28-3 we're cutting it close. After that, I think it gets dicey.

27 wins might be "fairly good shot" from an analytics standpoint, but not a realistic standpoint.

I'm throwing out a pretty good baseline. It seems your opinion is 28 wins to a "good" shot. My definition of good shot is over 50%. I think analytics provides a solid look at where the team is at and I think they will be considered more than you would think. Do I think it's 100% accurate? No. Certainly there are other factors that you point out, and other teams that could get pushed forward. I do think it's a solid debate, but we're arguing over 1 win here. Is 1 win irrelevant? No, there is certainly a spot in the schedule we could point to why we made it (like this win) or why we didn't make it(a slip soon.) I do think that we have a bit of an edge when it comes to other mid majors based on 2 things. We play a tougher schedule and we have name recognition so to say close to 0 room for error is a bit of a stretch.

[Username]

Playing with that Team Ranking site, couple interesting things, firstly, the odds that we get into the tournament (according to this site) actually went down from yesterday. Now, aggregate, odds went up, but that's because they dropped the possibility of only winning 19 games, every winning total's chances went down. The 27 win mark has actually gone from 61% chance of making the tourney to 49.5% chance. Secondly, right now, we have an 8-ish percent chance of making the sweet sixteen. That's actually pretty decent, given the amount of factors. It's an interesting site, if you've got some time to kill, it's worth checking out.

Certainly. I looked at it last year when trying to see some odds of mid majors making it in(Murray State) It certainly can't factor in everything like Murray state likely getting in regardless because they have a name (Morant), but I think being able to unobjectively look at things and get a benchmark for where the field lies is interesting. I think we're one of the teams that would be most accurately represented because of being one of the more consistent teams with a fairly consistent schedule. The loss to W Virginia with how high they've been in the metrics could really come back to sting, but still playing them is advantageous to us.

[CyCarp]

Went from 10 to 42 votes in the AP poll this week, 29th overall.

[06panther10]

Another undefeated week and the right losses in front of us, we could make it into the poll next week. Just keep winning...

[DownGoesKansas]

If we finish the year with 4-5 total losses and miss the tournament. it will be complete BS.

And if that happens we very likely will

[MNpanthers]

It's painful to think where we'd be if we could've closed it out against Illinois St and WV. 18-0, probably a top 10 ranked team. Both are games we should have won. Sigh, oh well, gotta look forward not back

[BCPanther]

The AP is again releasing ballots after lots of negative press.

Here are our votes:
17- Dave Preston (WTOP Radio, Washington DC), Jon Wilner (San Jose Mercury News)
19- Dave Borges (New Haven Register, New Haven, CT)
21- Brian McInnis (Honolulu Star-Advertiser), Sam Blum (Dallas Morning News)
22- Chad Leistikow (Des Moines Register)
24- Jordan Hansen (Missoulian, Missoula, MT)
25- Doug Doughty (Roanoke Times, Roanoke, VA)

[sevelev711]

The AP is again releasing ballots after lots of negative press.

Here are our votes:
17- Dave Preston (WTOP Radio, Washington DC), Jon Wilner (San Jose Mercury News)
19- Dave Borges (New Haven Register, New Haven, CT)
21- Brian McInnis (Honolulu Star-Advertiser), Sam Blum (Dallas Morning News)
22- Chad Leistikow (Des Moines Register)
24- Jordan Hansen (Missoulian, Missoula, MT)
25- Doug Doughty (Roanoke Times, Roanoke, VA)

Can't believe a couple rando's on either coast think we're better than a somewhat local guy does.

[Spathicle]

We finally jumped Ohio State after they lost five of their last six games....

[clenz]

Can't believe a couple rando's on either coast think we're better than a somewhat local guy does.

He's a massive Hawk apologist. It's not hard to imagine. His bias, even if masked in professionalism, won't let him truly move uni up like those not connected to Iowa

[squeezebox]

Bumped up to the 10 seed in bracketology against WSU. It's a huge week with SIU and Loyola coming up!!