MVC Predictions

[DancerHall Cat]

Based upon what we have seen thus far, what does everyone think UNI will do in the MVC.

Right now, I would guess we are probably looking at 10-8 and an NIT birth. Probably takes 11-7, plus a bracket buster win along with a win in the MVC tourny to get us right on the edge of the bubble. Unfortunately, it looks at least a little bit like an uphill battle at this point.

[PantherHawk]

That's what I am thinking, I would maybe go 11-7 and gonna have to win 2 in the MVC tourny to get in. The big thing is if they can win at HOME and get some on the road at Indiana State, Ill State, and Drake. If they can win on the road, that would be huge. I am thinking a final record of 22-9 and prob just missin the NCAA. But a bid to the NIT wouldn't be such a shame, as i think we would be the only school in the state of Iowa playing Post-season, god knows Iowa or ISU ain't going anywhere!

[BCPanther]

I am so sick of everybody claiming that we have a good year if we do better that Iowa or Iowa State.

WAY TOO MUCH "LITTLE BROTHER SYNDROME"

[UNIPNTHR]

Agreed. I love to beat the sqauwks and clowns as much as the next fan. But in the grand scheme, the Panthers have bigger fish to fry.

[Pantherpower]

That's what I am thinking, I would maybe go 11-7 and gonna have to win 2 in the MVC tourny to get in. The big thing is if they can win at HOME and get some on the road at Indiana State, Ill State, and Drake. If they can win on the road, that would be huge. I am thinking a final record of 22-9 and prob just missin the NCAA. But a bid to the NIT wouldn't be such a shame, as i think we would be the only school in the state of Iowa playing Post-season, god knows Iowa or ISU ain't going anywhere!

I disagree. 22-9 and the Panthers can punch their ticket. The Valley will be unbelievable this year!

[tcondon]

10-8 looks to be the most realistic at this point. It wouldn't take much to sway me from 7-11 to 12-6.

Home Games:

Probable wins-Illinois State, Indiana State, Evansville

Toss up games (favored by a couple of points)-Drake, Bradley

Toughest games-Creighton, SIU, Missouri State, Wichita

If UNI can take the first 5 games on home, and split with the final group, you are looking at 7-2 at home. That means you have to find 5 road victories to get to 12-6. Not very likely.

This loss could be one that comes back to bite the Panthers in the butt. The strength of schedule for UNI is already bad enough, and road victories are at a premium. With Iowa State and Iowa being awful this year, those victories aren't going to carry much weight.

[Panthers to the Bone]

If UNI gets 20+ wins this year, they WILL be dancing. I don't know if UNI will get to 20, b/c the Valley is just so tough. Alot will depend on how well UNI stays healthy. UNI is currently 8-2. With that record, UNI has beaten some good teams. If someone would have said, "will you take 8-2 heading into the Wartburg game", I would have thought, "dang, that's a fantastic start."

I think that if UNI can win against Wartburg, and somehow win their BB game, that would be a 10-2 non-conference record. Go 9-9 or better (around 5th place) in the MVC, and you have a 19-11+ record heading into the MVC tourney. I think 20 wins, in the 2nd-4th best league in the country gets UNI into the tourney barely. 21 wins, and you're in. I just think the 'BCS conferences' are going to witness similar parity in the majority of the conferences to the point where there will be teams like Kansas and Ohio State dominate their conferences, and then the rest is a jumbled mess of close to .500 records.

The MVC is just so tough. A 5th place finish or better is a good season with the youth we have.

[DancerHall Cat]

UNI has beaten some good teams

Who? Certainly not Iowa or ISU. 4-5 Bucknell??

[Panthers to the Bone]

Who? Certainly not Iowa or ISU. 4-5 Bucknell??

On the road against a BCS team (regardless of how down people think they are, no one has beaten Iowa at home thus far) and on the road against a team projected to win their conference (Bucknell). Bucknell's losses are to UNI, a Wake Forest team in OT, a 8-3 Penn State team on the road in OT, a tough St. Joes team, and on the road to Albany. I'll give you the Albany loss as a bad loss, but it was the first game of the year. They will be a 18+ win team when it's all said and done. Those are huge RPI points down the stretch.

It's just my opinion, but you aren't giving enough credit for road wins. They are tough to come by. Road wins are GOOD wins, especially against .500+ teams.

[DancerHall Cat]

Honestly PTTB, if you wanna stay positive that is great. But honestly, this is a stretch to say the least.

Your 1st point - Nobody has beaten Iowa at home thus far. You are right. They beat Citadel, Toledo, Texas Pan-am, Coppin State and ISU. Great point on your part. 0 quality wins in that bunch coupled with an 0-4 road nuetral record.

Its certainly possible that Bucknell will win their conference. However, the tough Penn State team they lost to is actually 7-4 (nice mistake on your part) with losses to Stony Brook and SE Louisiana mixed in.

The tough St.Joes team you speak of no longer has Jameer Nelson and Delonte West. They do however, have a 5-4 record with a loss to the Penn State team described above, as well as losses to Ohio and a 16 point drubbing to Drexel.

Wake Forest is a solid program coming off of a terrible year and has started off at 5-3 - probably not a real threat to go to the NCAA's.

Albany?? I think they play outside behind a snow drift. They are a solid 4-5 including a blowout loss to Sacred Heart (My 8th grade basketball team used to have a tough time at a small catholic Jr High called Sacred Heart as well)

Do I really have to go into Bucknell's overtime win vs St Francis (Another Catholic powerhouse).

We can go back in forth if you want. But the fact is, whether Bucknell ends up being solid or not, every single thing in your above post just got crushed.

[BCPanther]

Anything positive to say, DHC???

Haven't seen it in your posts or in the chatroom during the game???

[UNIPNTHR]

We can go back in forth if you want. But the fact is, whether Bucknell ends up being solid or not, every single thing in your above post just got crushed.

**UNIPNTHR is picturing DHC with his hand up looking for a high five.**

[DancerHall Cat]

Anything positive to say, DHC???

Haven't seen it in your posts or in the chatroom during the game???

I started the thread with what I thought was a realistic expectation for this team. Certainly, UNI has jumped leaps and bounds over the past few years, and people have good reason to be happy with this program.

I am looking forward to the MVC as much as the next guy, and plan on making the trip to St Louis.

However, I think it is worth pointing out when someone makes a completely rediculous point. UNI has a solid record, but to come on and pretend like we have a bunch of great wins is a joke

Also, I think you said a few things about a big man or 2 during the game that you wont be posting on here, and thats fine. I would hope we will all get a little ticked off during a game like that.

[BCPanther]

I can say it right here...

Grant Stout has been a total disappointment so far this year. He has not looked like the guy that led the MVC in rebounding last year and I guy that I thought with a huge year was a borderline NBA player (Ryan Bowen Played for 7 years...). I don't think that he has played anywhere near the level any of us expected.

I also think we need to reevaluate some minutes. Brown is not real good at the defensive end (one great effort at Iowa does not make up for average efforts other nights) and Josten is awful on the offensive end. Maybe those two need to split some minutes and we need to see more of Ahelegbe and Jones. IMO...

[Panthers to the Bone]

DHC-

You are correct. I thought I saw where Penn State won tonight to put them at 8-3...my bad.

Regardless, Bucknell is a good win. You can pick apart the negatives of their schedule all you want, but winning on the road is hard to do and they have done it, especially with their win over George Mason (obviously not last year's GM team, but a solid MM).

Iowa's losses are to teams that are a combined 33-9 heading into today's games (I believe).

I don't understand how 'everything in my post just got crushed'. I misspoke on one thing, and that was the PSU record being 8-3 instead of 7-4. The rest is subjective, and it's my opinion that Bucknell is a good team. I also value winning on the road. It's really hard to do. That's maybe why I look at it the way I do.