MVC Predictions

[AmesPanther]

There is an awful lot of energy being expended on this topic for mid December. If UNI can manage to finish 4th or better in the MVC our RPI will take care of itself and we will be in. There's 3 months of basketball to be played yet before we will have a good idea where we stand.

I was about to post and say MSU didn't have the quality wins to get in last year and they shouldn't have been in and some other stuff, but I think Gonzo is right.

[tcondon]

OK...UNI finished SIXTH (6th) in the Valley last year and got an at-large!!!!! Did you people forget that little nugget? If UNI gets to 20+ wins...they're IN in the NCAA's for a 4th straight year. Period. The Valley is MUCH stronger this year and will garner 4, if not 5 bids. If UNI finishes 10-8 to 12-6, (plus a bracket buster win and a first-round win in St. Louis), that puts them at 21-11 - 23-8...and they're in.

Factually incorrect. UNI finish tied for 5th last season in the MVC with Bradley with an 11-7 record. And a nonconference strength of schedule of 46. This year they are at 269.

Another thing to remember is that the top 6 teams all finished within 3 games of each other. It was pretty tough to differentiate between those 6 teams. Say Wichita State and Southern Illinois run away and hid at the end of the year with 16-2/15-3 type of records, is will be much different to see differences between the teams. Were you able to beat either of the top two teams?

Along with that, the bottom of the conference could look quite a bit differently this season. Last season, you had this:

Drake 5-13
Evansville 5-13
Illinois State 4-14
Indiana State 4-14

I can certainly see the bottom teams picking up a few more wins. I could end up being a big cluster at the middle, and nonconference wins and strength of schedule will play a big part in determining who is going to the Big Dance and who is going to the NIT.

[panther2317]

They are at 269 without playing any Valley games. Don't you think it's plausible that the Valley season will boost their SOS? It's December 18th man.

[DWadle1983]

The place to start looking at where the MVC may finish in RPI is look at last season. The MVC was 3rd or 4th in RPI entering last season's regular season.

Two things stick out as important. First, is winning percentage, which seems obvious. Right now, the only two conferences with a lower non-conference winning percentage than the MVC right now are the Big 10 and Big 12.

When the MVC finished ahead of the Pac-10 in RPI last season, how many BCS conferences did the MVC finish ahead of in non-conference winning percentage? One, the Pac -10.

The other factor is what was the non-conference RPI.

The ACC had a better winning percentage than the Big East but the Big East had an overall RPI higher than the ACC. Why? Because the Big East played a better non-conference schedule than the ACC. (ACC Non-Conference SOS Rank was 19th, the Big East's was 5th).

The same thing was true with why the SEC finished ahead of the Big 12. SEC .758 winning percentage, non-conference SOS 4th. Big 12 winning percentage was .761, non-conference SOS was 12th.

The MVC had teams with a high RPI entering 2005-06 MVC Regular season play. Missouri State was 5th, UNI 6th, Creighton 24th, Bradley 39th. The one big difference versus last season is that last season Drake's non-conference RPI was 162, Illinois State 197, and Evansville 264. http://www.kenpom.com/conf.php?y=2006&c=MVC

The only two conferences at this point the MVC may finish ahead of in overall RPI are the Big 10, and Big 12, and I think definitely will finish ahead of the Big 12 because of the MVC's better non-conference winning percentage and stronger non-conference SOS and there aren't tons of unplayed non-conference games at this point.

[tcondon]

They are at 269 without playing any Valley games. Don't you think it's plausible that the Valley season will boost their SOS? It's December 18th man.

Gee, ya think.

The nonconference SOS still isn't good. And it is doubtful that it is going to be much better over the next few months, even with a great Bracket Buster game.

[DWadle1983]

Gee, ya think.

The nonconference SOS still isn't good. And it is doubtful that it is going to be much better over the next few months, even with a great Bracket Buster game.

Based on who received at-large bids last season, the low non-conference SOS will likely require UNI to win at least 12 or 13 conference games (between the regular season and MVC Tournament), in order to have an RPI high enough (better than 40) to have a good shot at an at-large bid. Road wins, like last season, at Missouri State and Wichita State would be helpful.

[DWadle1983]

To further touch upon the earlier comment that UNI scheduled a weak non-conference schedule, if you compare UNI's schedule to last season, the 2006-07 schedule on paper looked almost as good.

Last season, UNI, in scheduled games, beat Western Carolina RPI 265, Western Michigan 195, Iowa State 93, Loyola 138, Iowa 7, UMKC 264, Florida A&M 253, LSU 13, and Dayton 183. Bracket Buster Bucknell was 42.

While Iowa State, Loyola, and Western Michigan did not play as well as expected, no one would have projected Iowa to have an RPI of 7, and LSU had a better RPI than what have been expected.

Three teams could have been projected to have 200+ RPI's: Florida A&M, UMKC, and Western Carolina.

This season, having a schedule which included Washington, Iowa, Loyola, and Bucknell on paper would have looked fairly strong with four teams that would have been projected as having RPI's below 100.

While Washington was the only team projected as likely to have a very good RPI, ESPN's write-up of Iowa indicated they thought Iowa would be a decent team, and the injury to Mike Henderson has hurt them, Loyola, as noted earlier, the pre-season pick to win the Horizon, and ESPN predicted Bucknell to have 20+ wins.

Like last season, only three teams could have been projected as having a 200+ RPI: Nicholls State, Pepperdine, and South Dakota State.

[DancerHall Cat]

The only difference between this years noncon and last years is we did not beat Washington on their home court and we did beat LSU on theirs. Losing at Loyola this year is equivalent to losing at ISU last year.

Everything else is out of our control, the schedule looked just as good on paper when it was set up.

Last year we beat an Iowa team that ended up being a #3 seed. This year, they will be lucky to make the NIT. Certainly not our fault, but a big difference when it comes to resume time.

Im thinking you were probably just pointing out that we set up the schedule the same, and its just not working out as well, which is absolutely true.

The biggest thing that might be getting overlooked at this point is what a win over WSU could do for us. Certainly, we should have a real shot to knock them off in Cedar Falls. The same can be said for a win over SIU to a lesser extent. Maybe I'm just having trouble giving the valley and UNI the credit it deserves, but I just cant imagine us getting in under the following 20 win scenario.

We go 11-7 in the MVC being swept by WSU, with road losses to SIU, Creighton, Bradley, MSU and 1 other. That coupled with a loss in the 1st round in the MVC and a loss in the bracket buster would put us at 20-11(If my below average math serves me correctly).

Under that scenario, I would honestly be quite surprised if we made the NCAA's. I would say the same thing if we go 10-8 in the conference and win a game in the MVC. Of course, these are just a couple of a million scenarios and there are plenty of different ways that we can get into the tourny.

[panther2317]

You think we'll get swept by WSU? Didn't we sweep them last year and beat them 2 out 3 tries the year before? UNI's system does well vs. WSU. Look for at least one win vs. the Shockers.

UNI needs to hold serve at home (9 wins) and then steal 3-4 wins on the road. Hopefully at Indiana State, Illinois State, Evansville and perhaps Drake. If they do that, they'll be 13-5 in the league.

[UNIAlum95]

and perhaps Drake.

Drake gives us fits in down years. This year they can really play. Not only will the game in CF be a huge challenge, but winning in Des Moines this year will be as big of a challenge as any other road game we play this year.

[KaBullseye15]

Also, playing Bucknell, Washington, Iowa and Iowa State is not a Texas A&M type of schedule.

im glad someone else realizes they load up their schedule with patsies to make themselves look good. they always get smoked when they get to the big 12. maybe not this year but it sure shows you can rebuild a program in 4 yrs by loading up on cupcakes.

[panther2317]

That's why I said, "perhaps" Drake. It wouldn't surprise me if UNI won at MSU or WSU either, they've played well in both those places in the past.

I'm familiar with the results of the Drake games over the past 15 years...I know how tough they play UNI. That doesn't mean UNI won't win.

[DancerHall Cat]

You think we'll get swept by WSU? Didn't we sweep them last year and beat them 2 out 3 tries the year before? UNI's system does well vs. WSU. Look for at least one win vs. the Shockers.

UNI needs to hold serve at home (9 wins) and then steal 3-4 wins on the road. Hopefully at Indiana State, Illinois State, Evansville and perhaps Drake. If they do that, they'll be 13-5 in the league.

I thought I was pretty clear that I think we have a real shot to beat them, especially in Cedar Falls.

I also thought I was pretty clear in stating that this was just 1 of a million possible scenarios.

The point I was trying to make was in reference to posts suggesting that 20 wins gets us in no matter what.

[panther2317]

20 wins in the #2 or #3 RPI conference...DOES get us in....hell...19 wins gets us in if the Valley is #2 or #3.

[BCPanther]

Remember SMS lost in the first round of the Valley tournament last year. That is a big reason why they didn't get in. 19 or 20 regular season wins (minus Wartburg) and one win in St. Louis and we dance.