MVC Predictions

[HebrewHammer]

Crieghton has a tourney in hawaii coming up i believe. They have quite a few more none conference games remaining that will help clear things up a little, and conference play is what the comitee looks at the most.

[ceaser150]

I think the number of MVC bids depends greatly on which teams sit in the top half of the standings at the end of the year. If UNI is sitting around 4th or 5th, where everyone seems to think they will be, they could have a tough time getting an at large bid. Their SOS is near the bottom of all D1 teams right now. We saw what happened to MSU last year when you don't have a few nice OOC wins on your resume. However, if this year it is Creighton or MSU sitting in the 4th or 5th spot, they will likely get an at large because of better non-con resumes with wins over Xavier and Wisconsin.

[panther2317]

OK...UNI finished SIXTH (6th) in the Valley last year and got an at-large!!!!! Did you people forget that little nugget? If UNI gets to 20+ wins...they're IN in the NCAA's for a 4th straight year. Period. The Valley is MUCH stronger this year and will garner 4, if not 5 bids. If UNI finishes 10-8 to 12-6, (plus a bracket buster win and a first-round win in St. Louis), that puts them at 21-11 - 23-8...and they're in.

[Panther Cat]

OK...UNI finished SIXTH (6th) in the Valley last year and got an at-large!!!!! Did you people forget that little nugget? If UNI gets to 20+ wins...they're IN in the NCAA's for a 4th straight year. Period. The Valley is MUCH stronger this year and will garner 4, if not 5 bids. If UNI finishes 10-8 to 12-6, (plus a bracket buster win and a first-round win in St. Louis), that puts them at 21-11 - 23-8...and they're in.

Well I agree that if they are 21-11 they will probably get in. But the MVC is going to be extremely tough. However we're 8-2 right now, and if we beat Wartburg that really won't show up on any records the selection committie will look at. So we'll still only be 8-2 heading into the Bradley game. So if we go 10-8 we will still have a decent shot at getting in, but I'd say we'll need to either win the Bracket Buster game or else a game or two in the MVC tounrament to give us a great shot.

[ceaser150]

OK...UNI finished SIXTH (6th) in the Valley last year and got an at-large!!!!! Did you people forget that little nugget? If UNI gets to 20+ wins...they're IN in the NCAA's for a 4th straight year. Period. The Valley is MUCH stronger this year and will garner 4, if not 5 bids. If UNI finishes 10-8 to 12-6, (plus a bracket buster win and a first-round win in St. Louis), that puts them at 21-11 - 23-8...and they're in.

And MSU finished 3rd last year and DIDN'T get in. UNI got in last year largely because of high profile wins against LSU and Iowa. I think you would be crazy to think the Selection Committee isn't going to try to find some reason to keep MVC bids around 3 and 4 if possible. UNI has given them a clear cut excuse if they are on the bubble: No quality non-con wins. They have put together a Texas AM or Florida St. 2005 type non conference schedule so far. UNI better finish in the top three in the valley if they want to go dancing.

[panther2317]

Please someone...do some research...how many bids has the #2 rated RPI conference received in each of the past 10 years??? If you think the #2 rated RPI conference is only getting 3 bids...I think YOU my friend are crazy.

Also, playing Bucknell, Washington, Iowa and Iowa State is not a Texas A&M type of schedule. It just so happens that Iowa and ISU aren't as strong as they've been in the past, but UNI has scheduled a Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 10 and a two-time returning NCAA tournament team on the road. You can't help how good or bad a team is when you schedule them in advance. Those 4 teams listed, plus UW-Milwaukee are good names in college basketball.

[jordana33]

Problem is once the Valley starts beating each other up. That #2 rank will slip down, probably not far, but down. MVC gets 5 teams in this year.

[Panthers to the Bone]

Please someone...do some research...how many bids has the #2 rated RPI conference received in each of the past 10 years??? If you think the #2 rated RPI conference is only getting 3 bids...I think YOU my friend are crazy.

Also, playing Bucknell, Washington, Iowa and Iowa State is not a Texas A&M type of schedule. It just so happens that Iowa and ISU aren't as strong as they've been in the past, but UNI has scheduled a Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 10 and a two-time returning NCAA tournament team on the road. You can't help how good or bad a team is when you schedule them in advance. Those 4 teams listed, plus UW-Milwaukee are good names in college basketball.

I didn't just look at the #2 conference, I looked at the top 5 RPI conferences. Here is what I found (and posted in another thread):

2006:
Teams with 20 wins in a top 5 RPI conference left out of the NCAA's (1-Colorado)---in the #5 RPI conference, individual RPI of 59
Teams with 19 wins in a top 5 RPI conference left out of the NCAA's (2- Nebraska and Florida State)---FSU RPI 63, NU RPI 96

2005:
Teams with 20 wins in a top 5 RPI conference left out of NCAA's (ZERO)
Teams with 19 wins in a top 5 RPI conference left out of NCAA's (ZERO)

2004:
Teams with 20 wins in a top 5 RPI conference left out of NCAA's (ZERO)
Teams with 19 wins in a top 5 RPI conference left out of NCAA's (1- Oklahoma, RPI of 50)---Big12 #4 conference

2003:
Teams with 20 wins in a top 5 RPI conference left out of NCAA's (ZERO)
Teams with 19 wins in a top 5 RPI conference left out of NCAA's (ZERO)

2002:
Teams with 20 wins in a top 5 RPI conference left out of NCAA's (1- Syracuse, RPI of 66, 4-9 in last 13 games)---Big East #4 RPI conference
Teams with 19 wins in a top 5 RPI conference left out of NCAA's (ZERO)

2001:
Teams with 20 wins in a top 5 RPI conference left out of NCAA's (1- Alabama, RPI of 51, lost 5 of last 6)
Teams with 19 wins in a top 5 RPI conference left out of NCAA's (ZERO)

So, history shows that typically 20 win teams in a top 5 conference gets in the tourney, and to an extent 19 wins in a top 5 RPI conference get in. The only times they are left out is if they have RPI's of over 50. It's something to keep an eye out for.

How many teams have gotten in from the top 3 RPI conferences (allowing for some shifting around) on average:
2006: #1 (6 bids), #2 (8 bids), #3 (4 bids)
2005: #1 (5 bids), #2 (6 bids), #3 (6 bids)
2004: #1 (6 bids), #2 (6 bids), #3 (6 bids)
2003: #1 (6 bids), #2 (6 bids), #3 (4 bids)
2002: #1 (6 bids), #2 (4 bids), #3 (6 bids)

When only 4 bids were given out:
2006 #3 conference:
Teams that missed out:
FSU had 19 wins, 9-7 in conference, 63 RPI
Maryland had 18 wins, 8-8 in conference, 49 RPI
Clemson had 17 wins, 7-9 in conference, 78 RPI
Miami had 16 wins, 7-9 in conference, 79 RPI

2003 #3 conference:
Teams that missed out:
Georgia Tech had 14-14 record, 7-9 in conference, 76 RPI
UNC had 17-15 record, 6-10 in conference, 52 RPI
Clemson had 15-13 record, 5-11 in conference, 107 RPI

2002 #2 conference:
Teams that missed out:
Virginia had 17-11 record, 7-9 in conference, 49 RPI

So, there is a reason why these teams missed out. They had less than 20 wins, higher than 50 RPI's, and/or sub .500 record in conference. IMO, if you have a less than .500 record in conference (regular season) you shouldn't make the NCAA's. That's just my opinion though.

[tcondon]

Please someone...do some research...how many bids has the #2 rated RPI conference received in each of the past 10 years??? If you think the #2 rated RPI conference is only getting 3 bids...I think YOU my friend are crazy.

2006 Big East: 8
2005 Big East: 6
2004 SEC: 6
2003 Big XII: 6
2002 ACC: 4
2001 Big Ten: 7
2000 Big Ten: 6
1999 ACC: 3

Conferences don't receive bids, teams do. With an strength of schedule so weak, UNI is in a tough situation in comparision to Wichitan, Creighton SIU and Missouri State at this point.

[panther2317]

You can say "conferences don't receive bids" all you want, but that's not reality. If another BCS conference was in the Valley's place last season...Missouri State would have been in the NCAA's too.

PTTB's research is all you need to know:

How many teams have gotten in from the top 3 RPI conferences (allowing for some shifting around) on average:
2006: #1 (6 bids), #2 (8 bids), #3 (4 bids)
2005: #1 (5 bids), #2 (6 bids), #3 (6 bids)
2004: #1 (6 bids), #2 (6 bids), #3 (6 bids)
2003: #1 (6 bids), #2 (6 bids), #3 (4 bids)
2002: #1 (6 bids), #2 (4 bids), #3 (6 bids)

[tcondon]

It is true that conferences don't receive bids. When only 4 teams from a strong ACC make the NCAA Tournament, you can definately say that.

The reason only 4 teams made it from the 3rd rated ACC is because that is the number of teams that deserved it. The Missouri State situation doesn't make any sense, even at this point. I'll try to think of some conspiracy theory.

[valleyclimber]

A few posters have mentioned "looked what happened to MSU last year". Well, in retrospect considering how the Valley teams fared in the Big Dance, most college basketball experts would agree that leaving MSU was a MISTAKE. Now that the situation has occured, IMO think the Valley team might be given more of the benefit of the doubt.

No one has mentioned that UNI has plenty of chances to beef up their resume. The Panthers can get all the BIG wins they need by knocking off teams in the Valley. UNI knocks off WSU, MSU, SIU or CU and that's going to stand out in a HUGE way. Also even wins against the bottom half of the Valley would be quality wins as by the time conference season starts EVERY team in the MVC has a shot to be in the top 100 RPI. The Panthers SOS will soar once they play only Valley teams, and UNI still should get a match-up with a VERY high RPI Bracketbuster team.

I'm with a couple of other posters in thinking that the Valley has a decent shot to get 5 teams in the Big Dance this year. Why is that? All our teams will have good wins in the #2 RPI conference....that is how for years the BCS conferences got multiple teams playing in the NCAA tourney. If the Valley teams finish out their non-cons strong, then there could be 6 or 7 MVC schools with 20 win records. Most teams will be going into the conference with 9 or 10 non-con wins, so that means 10 MVC wins puts a team at 20 wins. And considering the strength of the Valley this season, that 20 game winner is going to look mighty attractive to the selection committee.

I do think many posters are too easily dismissing Iowa as a "bad" team. IMHO the Hawkeyes could finish just over .500 and get an NIT bid. Is an NIT team a "bad" team? Now, Iowa St. is a different matter...ha ha

[panther2317]

All our teams will have good wins in the #2 RPI conference....that is how for years the BCS conferences got multiple teams playing in the NCAA tourney. If the Valley teams finish out their non-cons strong, then there could be 6 or 7 MVC schools with 20 win records.

Ding ding ding!!! We have a winner.

[GonzoCat]

There is an awful lot of energy being expended on this topic for mid December. If UNI can manage to finish 4th or better in the MVC our RPI will take care of itself and we will be in. There's 3 months of basketball to be played yet before we will have a good idea where we stand.

[BCPanther]

20+ wins and UNI is in. Three straight bids also helps because of the committee carry over from year to year... People Remember UNI.

2317 is absolutely correct. 6 bids from the Valley are absolutely possible if the top 3 teams don't run and hide. You acould easily have 6 teams in the 11-7 to 13-5 range. It is going to be a tough year for the E-Villes, IlSU, and InSUs of the world