MVC Predictions

[DancerHall Cat]

I can say it right here...

Grant Stout has been a total disappointment so far this year. He has not looked like the guy that led the MVC in rebounding last year and I guy that I thought with a huge year was a borderline NBA player (Ryan Bowen Played for 7 years...). I don't think that he has played anywhere near the level any of us expected.

I also think we need to reevaluate some minutes. Brown is not real good at the defensive end (one great effort at Iowa does not make up for average efforts other nights) and Josten is awful on the offensive end. Maybe those two need to split some minutes and we need to see more of Ahelegbe and Jones. IMO...

Solid post. I would still argue that Stout is our most important player, but I would agree he hasnt played as well as he is capable of.

[pantherfan4ever]

Anything positive to say, DHC???

Haven't seen it in your posts or in the chatroom during the game???

definitely agree with you... all i see is negativity and sarcasim (nice mistake on your part, etc)...

i just ignore him since he only has 33 posts.. i just keep hoping he becomes more positive as he learns the ropes in the forums

[DRAKELAWPANTHER]

Bottom line is this: we are going to have to do some SERIOUS damage in the Valley to have any shot at an at-large bid.

DHC is right - no wins to hang our hat on - not even any close-to-big wins like Cincinnati a couple years back. And I think the NCAA Committee is going to reach a point where they say: Hmmm...we've given the Panthers three shots - two at-large - and they've yet to advance beyond the first round...Let's give the nod to a team that has some big season wins - or some past NCAA success.

I'm not devastated by tonight's loss by any means - but it does open your eyes a little. I agree that Stout has not produced...yet. And despite some good big men - we don't really dominate inside like I thought we would...I think our inability to hit the outside shot has really stifled our inside game. And I'm not sure yet about Coach Jacobsen. Our defense just doesn't seem as stingy as it used to be. And we seem to have to rely on those transition alley-oops ALL the time. He obviously is doing some nice things...but we'll have to see how he adjusts.

[DancerHall Cat]

Ok, here is my point in regards to the post by PTTB. I will try to be as positive as possible.

UNI has a solid record with only 2 losses. We havent put ourselves in a great position for the tourny, but we havent killed our chances either. We are a good conference season away from being on the bubble if not better.

I just "googled" strenght of schedule and I came up with "Mike Greenfields" strength of schedule. It was the 1st one on the list. Im sure you guys can come up with a better source. However, using whatever formula he uses, he has our SOS at 305 coming into today. Not exactly a powerhouse schedule.

Certainly, the game tonight will help our SOS and it will only skyrocket once we get into the MVC. I just cant imagine that any objective person looking at our schedule from outside of the UNI fanbase would look at our wins and see them as impressive. Does that mean we suck? No. We have just beaten the teams we probably should beat and lost a couple of games that we were slight dogs in.

[DancerHall Cat]

Great Post DrakeLaw

[Panthers to the Bone]

DLP-

I agree that Stout hasn't been playing to the level of what we thought he could, but do you think that Stout's expectations by the fans were a little over the top? (honest question) Consider that Stout is a consistent 11 and 8 a night (2 boards from a double-double). He's playing with one of the most aggressive bigs in Coleman (who has gotten ALOT better from last year). I believe that someone said that they thought Stout hasn't gotten as many boards due to the fact that Coleman has been just crazy on the boards this year. I don't know if that's true, but something to think about. There is no doubt his FT shooting has lacked from previous years, and hopefully that will improve. Also realize that UNI finally has some post depth (Eglseder/Koch averaging around 10 min/game) and he isn't playing as extensively as before. Last year, teams concentrated on the guards, this year, it's just the opposite, thus he's getting more attention from defenders.

Coach Jake is 8-2...he's done a great job, IMO. I honestly can't think of a coaching decision he has made this year that has been questionable or that has gone the wrong way. I wasn't able to watch most of the UNI game tonight (listened to it all), but was there a coaching/tacticle error that you thought was questionable? (honest question, b/c you probably saw more of it than I)

As for the transition comment, I think that it's a positive to getting out and running. People complained in the past that UNI didn't do much of transition. I think it's been a good thing, but I don't think UNI has relied on it. Half court sets has been the 'M.O.' at UNI for the past few years, and that has continued this year. I guess I don't see where a little transition game is a negative.

[Panthers to the Bone]

Ok, here is my point in regards to the post by PTTB. I will try to be as positive as possible.

UNI has a solid record with only 2 losses. We havent put ourselves in a great position for the tourny, but we havent killed our chances either. We are a good conference season away from being on the bubble if not better.

I just "googled" strenght of schedule and I came up with "Mike Greenfields" strength of schedule. It was the 1st one on the list. Im sure you guys can come up with a better source. However, using whatever formula he uses, he has our SOS at 305 coming into today. Not exactly a powerhouse schedule.

Certainly, the game tonight will help our SOS and it will only skyrocket once we get into the MVC. I just cant imagine that any objective person looking at our schedule from outside of the UNI fanbase would look at our wins and see them as impressive. Does that mean we suck? No. We have just beaten the teams we probably should beat and lost a couple of games that we were slight dogs in.

I can respect that opinion. I'm heading to bed. Thanks for the good banter tonight!

[BCPanther]

The thing with the defense is that we lost our two best defenders in Little and Crawford.

And being that Mac refused to play anyone else at any point in the year last year, no one got in game experience. I think it was a huge mistake to decide that Josten would be your "stopper" and match him up with players, like Schilb, that are WAY out of his league. This team is going to have to do different things to be successful.

I think in the long run Jake will be a better head coach than Mac because he is not a micro-managing control freak...

[Panthers to the Bone]

Keep in mind that heading into this game, UNI's defense was #20 in the nation...and that Josten has done a great number on previous offensive threats this year. He's learning, as he hasn't had much experience, but Brown really has either. I believe both (and Kwadzo) switched off on him. Similar matchup problems occurred last year with Sommerville. It's hard to guard those 6'7"+ scoring guards.

Now...off to bed.

[DRAKELAWPANTHER]

PTTB,

I'd take Stout on my team any day - I'm just saying he hasn't lived up to expectations this year. Maybe some of those expectations were inflated - but I'll say this: he's missed some wide open shots and some pretty easy lay-ups. I'm sure he's just in a little funk - but I'm saying he needs to get out of that funk in time to do some business in the Valley.

As for Coach Jake - I'm just saying I think it's too early to make any judgments about whether he should be voted: Best Coach in America - 2006. I'm all for opening up the offense a little...but I think we've got to remember who we are: The Missouri Valley wins games against elite programs by playing ugly, boring to watch, scrappy defense and slowing down the pace of the game. The reality is, if we think we can "open it up" against Duke or North Carolina or whoever, we're going to get killed. That's what made Mac so successfully - he made other teams adjust to our pace of play.

Tonight, our defense looked ugly - and our offense looked like a pick-up game.

[HebrewHammer]

I think the valley will get 4 teams in for sure this year, potentially 5, all of which will have over 20 wins. Wichita will have 25 or so, Creighton around the same, and then 2 of MSU, SIU, and UNI will have around 21. adding this all up, UNI needs ATLEAST 11 conference wins to make it to the tourney, plus a good showing at the tourney, (2 wins will get us in for sure) and perhaps a poor performance by the other bubble team in the valley (maybe a victory in the tourney or sweeping them in regular season).

Another thing to think about, is that UNI in the NIT would be very strong (as would any MVC team) and maybe great success in that would look even better then a poor performance in the NCAA tourney. Expect all but 1 or 2 teams to make some sort of post season, so it will be a successful year hopefully no matter what.

As for grant stout, he is being hurt the most by the lack of consistent perimeter offense. Last year he wasn't double teamed because Benny and crawford were on the outside ready to drain a 3 at any point. Coleman would be having an even better year if UNI still had this threat, but he just so happens to be one of the best players in the conference and can work through the double team and fight for his 15 points a game.

And finally...always remember we DID just switch coaches and are not expected to finish great in the valley, and any postseason play is just that much sweater this year. Also, we cant have a worse percentage against the valley then mac has, so theres always that!

Sorry for the long post!

[DWadle1983]

I think the valley will get 4 teams in for sure this year, potentially 5, all of which will have over 20 wins. Wichita will have 25 or so, Creighton around the same, and then 2 of MSU, SIU, and UNI will have around 21. adding this all up, UNI needs ATLEAST 11 conference wins to make it to the tourney, plus a good showing at the tourney, (2 wins will get us in for sure) and perhaps a poor performance by the other bubble team in the valley (maybe a victory in the tourney or sweeping them in regular season).

Another thing to think about, is that UNI in the NIT would be very strong (as would any MVC team) and maybe great success in that would look even better then a poor performance in the NCAA tourney. Expect all but 1 or 2 teams to make some sort of post season, so it will be a successful year hopefully no matter what.

As for grant stout, he is being hurt the most by the lack of consistent perimeter offense. Last year he wasn't double teamed because Benny and crawford were on the outside ready to drain a 3 at any point. Coleman would be having an even better year if UNI still had this threat, but he just so happens to be one of the best players in the conference and can work through the double team and fight for his 15 points a game.

And finally...always remember we DID just switch coaches and are not expected to finish great in the valley, and any postseason play is just that much sweater this year. Also, we cant have a worse percentage against the valley then mac has, so theres always that!

Sorry for the long post!

Creighton won't have around 25 wins unless they go undefeated in the Valley.

Right now, barring injuries, flunk-outs, etc., Wichita State will be in the NCAA Tournament, Missouri State and Southern Illinois are likely bids. That will leave UNI, Creighton, and Bradley to battle for a 4th MVC slot, and 4 is what we should expect unless a team headed for the NIT wins the MVC Tournament.

[BCPanther]

I don't think you can discount Drake just yet...

[PantherHawk]

I am thinking 4 also. There are some teams that in the bottom half of the conference that can surprise the top teams. Its is pretty much going to be a battle every night and you can't take a night off, otherwise you are going to get smoked. I am looking at WSU, So Ill, Mo State, and then its up in the air. The only way the Valley gets 5 in, is if the Big 10 and Big 12 beat each other up. And they only have 3 maybe 4 teams with impressive records. This valley season could be the best its ever been, I just hope the panthers can rebound from this loss and come ready to play on the 27th. if you can win your first two and go into WSU on a roll, that would be huge!

[Schack]

I agree that the Loyola loss has the potential to make a big difference at the end of the year.