Belmont to the Valley

[BrockLesnar]

Post #54 sums this up perfectly. They add one game on Thursday and the rest of the tourney runs basically the same as it always has.

Thanks, I saw it later. Guess I didn't read every post.

[clenz]

The OVC is dead. Murray has no options even half as good as the Valley. They should be begging to get in. I can understand the frustrations from a few years ago, but still being upset and having it cost the future would be inexcusable imo. If they don't come to the Valley, I have a hard time seeing it be their choice, the rest of your post highlights some things I've never seen before though, maybe the Valley just doesn't want them.

The more that reporters have been getting connected the less likey it sounds like Murray gets in.


Sounds like there is a lot of left over anger about Valpo from them and our presidents and ADs going "You have no other option that is good but if you don't want it then here is a list of reasons we are done with you".

[BrockLesnar]

The Horizon, Summit, and OVC have many options that would be within our geographic footprint. Even an A10 school like St Louis University would work, but they're most likely to stay put. It's tough getting any A10 team unless others will join. An example, get Butler, Marquette, Depaul and Creighton out of the Big East. Then Dayton and SLU out of the A10. The Big East is a bunch of Catholic and Jesuit schools. So, they're likely to stay at home too.

[ofpantherandman]

The Horizon, Summit, and OVC have many options that would be within our geographic footprint. Even an A10 school like St Louis University would work, but they're most likely to stay put. It's tough getting any A10 team unless others will join. An example, get Butler, Marquette, Depaul and Creighton out of the Big East. Then Dayton and SLU out of the A10. The Big East is a bunch of Catholic and Jesuit schools. So, they're likely to stay at home too.

I'm not sure why you'd mention those teams as options for those leagues when they are clearly not coming. Creighton out of the Big East? Why not pull Alabama from the SEC?

The fact is, the Horizon, Summit and OVC (especially the OVC) just moved down a peg and the MVC moved up. Even so, none of the schools you mentioned will come to the MVC to make 12 and they certainly won't go to the Horizon, Summit or OVC. The only school I can reasonably see moving "down" is Wichita State, and that's only because their conference might go tits up very soon. I know everyone hates the Shockers, but if they eventually want to be team 12, the Valley does that without thinking twice. I'd say this is a big reason why the MVC announced one addition instead of two - they're waiting for the American to implode.

[BCPanther]

We aren't getting St Louis. They've said a million times that they are an East Coast institution that just happens to be located in Missouri. The only place they leave for is the Big East, same with Dayton, Richmond, VCU and the reason that Temple is going to head back to the A10 if they can find a home for football.

Plus, there's the $14M TV distribution that each Big East school gets from their FOX deal.

I don't think there's anything I'd want from the Summit, Horizon, OVC at this point unless there is a suddenly orphaned South Dakota State if/when NDSU heads to a watered down Mountain West as Colorado State and Air Force are gone and Boise and San Diego State probably aren't far behind.

[clenz]

The OVC is literally filling their conference with D2 move ups from the Kentucky, Alabama, Georgia area. It’s why Belmont finally wanted out. They saw that ship sinking and took the life line. Murray wanted to, as the saying goes, FAFO due to hurt feelings and they found out the Valley can find reasons to not engage with them. They need the Valley exponentially more than the Valley needs them. Given the academic talk around Murray, and we are dealing with academic institutions, I’ll change FAFO to a more “educated” version: “Test that assumption at your earliest convenience”

The OVC just went from the 24th/25th rated conference to being just a head of the SWAC/MEAC at the very bottom of D1. They have traditionally ranked right along side the HL and SL but their best basketball programs, outside of Murray, are now gone. It’s Murray and a handful of teams that are 276+ in any/all computer metrics. That’s going to take Murray from 75-100 and tank them to 140+ instantly. Add in how badly those numbers will be drug down by D2s struggling during their moves and Murray might struggle to hit 150-175 unless they play a top 15 OOC and go 10-2 or 11-1.


At this point, until NDSU bolts for the much weakened MWC in 25/26 the Summit is clearly the strongest of those 3 conference. And honestly if we are holding out until then, I think a program lie SDSU is worth keeping close tabs on. With NDSu gone SDSU isn’t tied to anyone in the summit anymore and other than geography would make a solid addition option along with others.

WSU has about 15 different cases to be made for being brought back but there are 1000 reasons not too. I also think they (fans, admin, and coaches) napalmed every bridge on their way out and then salted the earth on top of it. They screwed up by giving Marshall as much power as they did. They are going to end up in a pretty bad (relatively speaking) league when this is all done that isn’t going to rank any higher, if at all, than the valley and will be doing so while sending their programs all over the country from South Florida to the Mid Atlantic to The Rockies region.

[SteinPizza]

WSU has about 15 different cases to be made for being brought back but there are 1000 reasons not too. I also think they (fans, admin, and coaches) napalmed every bridge on their way out and then salted the earth on top of it. They screwed up by giving Marshall as much power as they did. They are going to end up in a pretty bad (relatively speaking) league when this is all done that isn’t going to rank any higher, if at all, than the valley and will be doing so while sending their programs all over the country from South Florida to the Mid Atlantic to The Rockies region.

With Marshall and his crazy wife gone, you’d assume a large part of the bad blood is removed, correct? I looked it up and saw the AD at the time is still there, but would the MVC hold grudges against him as well? I’d also assume the fans are largely irrelevant in this case. If you’re going to be pissed at a school for having a segment of jackass fans and boosters, you’re going to hate every D1 program, UNI included. Making this business decision based off the attitude of the target school’s fanbase is illogical and stupid.

Just saying the above because I think WSU is a far better add than SDSU for several reasons. If schools like SLU and Dayton don’t want the MVC, then on paper WSU is by far the next best candidate, unless I’m missing an obvious choice.

[BCPanther]

With Marshall and his crazy wife gone, you’d assume a large part of the bad blood is removed, correct? I looked it up and saw the AD at the time is still there, but would the MVC hold grudges against him as well? I’d also assume the fans are largely irrelevant in this case. If you’re going to be pissed at a school for having a segment of jackass fans and boosters, you’re going to hate every D1 program, UNI included. Making this business decision based off the attitude of the target school’s fanbase is illogical and stupid.

Just saying the above because I think WSU is a far better add than SDSU for several reasons. If schools like SLU and Dayton don’t want the MVC, then on paper WSU is by far the next best candidate, unless I’m missing an obvious choice.

WSU is the best candidate but the administration that allowed Marshall to do what he did (racism, bullying, physical abuse) is all still in place which I think leads to some real distrust. Plus, that same group wasn't exactly cordial on its way out.

The decision for the league would become, how long are you good with being at 11. The AAC fallout and Wichita being available probably doesn't happen until 25-26. 11 is easy for MBB but it really makes scheduling awkward for VB and WBB.

[clenz]

Fans do and don’t matter. I should rephrase to donors I guess.

I have a strong feeling the largest donors at WSU will have a say in the move, and I don’t think the MVC will keep donors happy.

[Wxcpanther]

Fans do and don’t matter. I should rephrase to donors I guess.

I have a strong feeling the largest donors at WSU will have a say in the move, and I don’t think the MVC will keep donors happy.

Obviously this is mainly referring to the Koch family. I'm pretty sure they would have preferred Marshall stayed on board, as sad as that sounds.

[sevelev711]

Obviously this is mainly referring to the Koch family. I'm pretty sure they would have preferred Marshall stayed on board, as sad as that sounds.

And frankly, if we can't put our trust and faith into the Koch family, who can we?

[BrockLesnar]

I'm not sure why you'd mention those teams as options for those leagues when they are clearly not coming. Creighton out of the Big East? Why not pull Alabama from the SEC?

The fact is, the Horizon, Summit and OVC (especially the OVC) just moved down a peg and the MVC moved up. Even so, none of the schools you mentioned will come to the MVC to make 12 and they certainly won't go to the Horizon, Summit or OVC. The only school I can reasonably see moving "down" is Wichita State, and that's only because their conference might go tits up very soon. I know everyone hates the Shockers, but if they eventually want to be team 12, the Valley does that without thinking twice. I'd say this is a big reason why the MVC announced one addition instead of two - they're waiting for the American to implode.

First of all, we'd be better off with 14 than 12. The AAC might implode, but how do you expect us to recruit kids from New Orleans, Greenville, Memphis, Tulsa, Tampa, Philadelphia, or Dallas? Why would a kid from those hot weather cities spend Winter in Cedar Falls? What makes you think kids from the AAC have even heard of Cedar Falls? None of the MVC actively recruits the above cities. It would make zero sense for the to add orphan AAC school. Now, we might have to sit on 11 for three years, but we're not very high on AAC school's shortlist. We're much better off adding Horizon, Summit, or OVC schools. As far as A10 or Big East schools I said they're all staying home. Our recruiting budget limits us to Iowa and its border states. True, there are a few exceptions, but most of our kids are from Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Missouri, a few in Nebraska & South Dakota. We have never been able to be a National level recruiter.

[Gboom23]

Can someone lay out what’s happening to the Mountain West? I have missed that part of this discussion.

[BCPanther]

Can someone lay out what’s happening to the Mountain West? I have missed that part of this discussion.

Colorado State (and their fans are pissed about it) and Air Force are 99% headed to the AAC.

Boise and San Diego State look they're headed to the Big 12 eventually.

Basically, its going to become a geographic nightmare that doesn't really fit together where everyone outside of California resents the California schools. I don't know how they really survive long term.

[PantherAlum09]

Colorado State (and their fans are pissed about it) and Air Force are 99% headed to the AAC.

Boise and San Diego State look they're headed to the Big 12 eventually.

Basically, its going to become a geographic nightmare that doesn't really fit together where everyone outside of California resents the California schools. I don't know how they really survive long term.

I think this is my biggest takeaway. This is turning into a traveling mess. I suppose the more we just accept the geographic chaos the more we are just accepting they are all athlete/students and not the other way around. I guess they could line up road trips, but I just don't see how these kids are actually ever going to be in class throughout a season in these situations. I may be giving too much credit to the way things currently run, though, too.